MEXICO · SECURITY
Key Facts
- The country Mexico is the United States’ southern neighbour and a major trading partner, and home to cartels that Washington lists as terrorist organisations.
- What happened Mexico murders averaged 42.2 victims a day in September 2026, in official figures released on Tuesday, 13 October.
- The comparison That is down from 86.9 a day in September 2024, the last month before President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, a fall of about 51%.
- The record It was the lowest average for any September since 2015, though slightly above the 40.8 a day announced for August.
- Where it happens Seven of 32 states, led by Baja California and Guanajuato, accounted for about half of all victims from January to September.
- Power Index Mexico ranks 2nd of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 71.4 points (October 2026 edition).
- Still open The national statistics office counts homicides from death certificates once a year, and its 2026 figures are not out yet.
Mexico murders fell to an average of 42.2 victims a day in September, the lowest for that month since 2015, officials said on Tuesday. The figure matters in the United States, which presses Mexico to curb the cartels that smuggle fentanyl north and fight over territory at home.
Marcela Figueroa, who runs the federal office that compiles crime statistics, presented the data at President Claudia Sheinbaum’s morning press conference. She compared September with the same month of 2024, just before Sheinbaum took office, when the average stood at 86.9 a day.
What the New Figures Show
Figueroa heads the SESNSP, the executive secretariat of Mexico’s National Public Security System, which gathers crime data from the 32 state prosecutors’ offices. Its headline measure is the daily average of victims of intentional homicide, meaning killings that prosecutors treat as deliberate.
Sheinbaum, a former Mexico City mayor from the left-wing Morena party, took office on 1 October 2024 and tracks her security record this way. Figueroa described the latest drop as more than 52%, SDP Noticias and Mexico News Daily reported.
The two averages she gave, 86.9 and 42.2, work out to a fall of about 51%, or roughly 45 fewer victims every day. Even at the new level, Mexico still records more than 1,200 intentional killings a month.
“September 2026 is the lowest September since 2015,” Figueroa told the briefing, according to Político MX and Ríodoce. SDP Noticias, Contralínea and Mexico News Daily carried the same comparison from her presentation.
The latest Mexico murders figure sits slightly above August’s 40.8 a day, the lowest August since 2015, Uno TV reported on 8 September. Monthly numbers rise and fall, so the longer trend says more than any single month.
Where the Killing Is Concentrated
Mexico murders remain concentrated in a handful of states, the breakdown presented on Tuesday shows. Seven of Mexico’s 32 states accounted for about half of all victims from January to September 2026.
Baja California, home to the border city of Tijuana, ranked first with 8.5% of the national total. Guanajuato, an industrial state in central Mexico, also had 8.5%, just three victims fewer, Contralínea and Mexico News Daily reported.
Chihuahua, which borders Texas and New Mexico, followed with 7.8%, then Sinaloa with 7.7% and the State of Mexico with 6.4%. Guerrero, home to Acapulco, had 5.7%, and Morelos, just south of Mexico City, had 5.2%.
Together the seven states recorded 6,399 victims, according to SDP Noticias. Yucatán, the state around Mérida, had the fewest, with 21 victims in nine months, El Universal and Mexico News Daily reported.
All 32 states had a lower daily average from January to September than a year earlier, SDP Noticias and Mexico News Daily reported. Even the states at the top of the list saw fewer killings than a year earlier.
Why It Matters to the United States
Washington designated six Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organisations in February 2025, among them the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. The label exposes anyone who funds or supplies them to US terrorism charges.
On Tuesday, Security Minister Omar García Harfuch, who leads the fight against cartels, ruled out US strikes on suspected drug boats in Mexican waters. Such an attack “has not even been put on the table”, he told reporters after a closed-door meeting with Senate leaders, Crónica and Infobae reported.
He said cooperation with Washington means sharing intelligence and coordinating sea patrols, within limits set by Mexico’s constitution. The question arose because US forces have struck suspected drug boats in the Caribbean and the Pacific, Infobae noted.
At the morning briefing, García Harfuch said 70,571 people had been arrested for high-impact crimes such as murder, kidnapping and extortion since October 2024. Forces seized 36,303 firearms and about 570 tonnes of drugs and dismantled 2,792 labs and storage sites, La Razón and Mexico News Daily reported.
What Independent Data Say
INEGI, Mexico’s national statistics institute, counts homicides from death certificates rather than prosecutors’ files. On 3 August 2026 it reported 27,989 presumed homicides for 2025, a rate of 21.4 per 100,000 people, down from 25.8 in 2024.
That confirms the direction of Mexico murders in 2025, Sheinbaum’s first full year in office. INEGI has published no death-certificate count for 2026, so this year’s sharper fall rests on prosecutors’ data alone.
México Evalúa, a Mexico City think tank that studies security and justice, tracks a broader measure it calls lethal violence. It adds negligent killings, feminicides, disappearances and other crimes against life to intentional homicides.
That measure fell from 27.8 to 22.1 victims per 100,000 people between the first halves of 2025 and 2026, El Economista reported in August. Yet it remained 26.1% above 2015, and the disappearance rate more than doubled over that span, to 3.6 per 100,000.
The think tank said public data do not show conclusively that the federal security strategy caused the fall. It described the recent trend as a period of reduction rather than lasting peace.
What It Means for You
For travellers, the US State Department rates Mexico at Level 2, exercise increased caution, in an advisory issued on 29 May 2026. Six states, including Guerrero, Sinaloa and Michoacán, remain at Level 4, do not travel.
Baja California, Guanajuato and Chihuahua, three of the states with the most killings, are at Level 3, reconsider travel. Yucatán, the state with the fewest killings, is rated Level 1, the lowest warning.
For investors and companies with plants in Mexico, a lasting fall in Mexico murders could lower security costs and ease pressure from Washington. The national average hides sharp local differences, so conditions in a given city matter more than the headline number.
Background on the data, the armed groups and the safest regions is in this guide to security and crime in Mexico. This analysis of the government’s 53% claim explains the debate over the September 2024 baseline.
What Is Not Known
Monthly counts of Mexico murders can be revised as state prosecutors update their files, so September’s average may still move. Feminicides, the killing of women because of their gender, and disappearances are recorded separately and are not part of the headline figure.
It is also unclear how much of the fall reflects better policing and how much reflects truces or territorial control by criminal groups. INEGI’s death-certificate count for 2026, the main independent check, has not been published yet.
More: Mexico news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many people are murdered in Mexico each day?
Mexico murders averaged 42.2 victims a day in September 2026, counting intentional homicides only, the federal security statistics office said. That compares with 86.9 a day in September 2024.
Is Mexico’s murder rate really falling?
Prosecutors’ data and INEGI’s death-certificate count both show Mexico murders falling, with INEGI putting the 2025 rate at 21.4 per 100,000 against 25.8 in 2024. Analysts such as México Evalúa say disappearances and other killings should be counted too.
Which Mexican states have the most murders?
From January to September 2026, Baja California and Guanajuato each had about 8.5% of the national total, followed by Chihuahua and Sinaloa. Yucatán had the fewest, with 21 victims.
Is it safe to travel to Mexico?
The US State Department rates Mexico at Level 2, exercise increased caution, but six states are at Level 4, do not travel. Yucatán, the state around Mérida, is rated Level 1.
What does the 52% figure measure?
It compares the daily average of intentional homicide victims in September 2026, 42.2, with 86.9 in September 2024. Those two averages give a fall of about 51%, which officials described as more than 52%.
Sources: INEGI, Defunciones por homicidio 2025 (preliminary), 3 August 2026; US Department of State, Mexico Travel Advisory, 29 May 2026; SDP Noticias, 13 October 2026; Contralínea, 13 October 2026; Político MX, 13 October 2026; Ríodoce, 13 October 2026; Mexico News Daily, 13 October 2026; El Universal, 13 October 2026; La Razón, 14 October 2026; Crónica, 13 October 2026; Infobae México, 13 October 2026; El Financiero (Harfuch in the Senate), 13 October 2026; Uno TV, 8 September 2026; El Economista (México Evalúa analysis), 11 August 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief