Mexico Braces as Hurricane Simon Grows to Category 4
MEXICO · HURRICANE
Key Facts
- —The country Mexico is the southern neighbour of the United States, with Pacific resorts such as Puerto Vallarta and the cargo port of Manzanillo.
- —What happened Hurricane Simon strengthened into a Category 4 storm with winds near 140 mph (220 km/h) at midnight local time on Saturday 10 October.
- —Where it is About 140 miles (225 km) south of Manzanillo, moving north at 5 mph (7 km/h), the US National Hurricane Center said.
- —Warnings A hurricane warning covers the coast from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, which takes in Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.
- —Travel disruption Airlines cancelled all of Saturday’s commercial flights at Manzanillo’s airport, and Jalisco asked visitors to reconsider weekend trips to Puerto Vallarta.
- —Prediction markets Kalshi bettors give Simon a 61% chance of reaching Category 5, up from 14% a day earlier (10 October, 2:14 a.m. ET).
- —Still open Forecasters cannot yet say whether Simon will move inland over Colima and Jalisco or stay just offshore.
Hurricane Simon strengthened into a Category 4 storm off Mexico’s Pacific coast early on Saturday 10 October, with winds near 140 mph (220 km/h). The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami warned of catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge along part of Mexico’s west-central coast.
A hurricane warning covers the shore from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, including the port of Manzanillo and the resort of Puerto Vallarta. For American travellers, Saturday’s commercial flights at Manzanillo are cancelled and Jalisco state is asking visitors to reconsider weekend trips.
How Strong Hurricane Simon Is Now
At midnight local time on Saturday (2 a.m. ET), Hurricane Simon was centred about 140 miles (225 km) south of Manzanillo, in Colima state. It was also about 245 miles (395 km) from Cabo Corrientes, the headland at the southern edge of Puerto Vallarta’s bay.
Simon is now a Category 4 hurricane, the second-highest level on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale used by US forecasters. Its minimum central pressure was 945 millibars, the NHC said in its intermediate advisory.
Hurricane Simon is small, which makes its peak strength hard to predict. Hurricane-force winds reach only about 15 miles (30 km) from the centre, while tropical-storm-force winds extend about 80 miles (130 km).
The NHC expects further rapid strengthening during the next day or so. Its forecast discussion issued on Friday evening showed a peak of about 155 mph (250 km/h) by Saturday evening.
Where the Storm Is Expected to Go
Hurricane Simon is moving north at about 5 mph (7 km/h), and forecasters expect that general motion through the weekend. On the official track, the centre should be near or just inland of Mexico’s west-central coast later on Saturday or on Sunday.
In its Friday evening discussion, the NHC said it was still uncertain whether Simon would move inland over Colima and Jalisco or stay offshore. Its forecast favours landfall followed by rapid weakening over the mountains, with the storm dissipating by early next week.
If the centre stays just off the coast, Simon would likely keep hurricane strength for longer, the forecasters added. A hurricane watch already runs north from Punta Mita to El Roblito, on the Nayarit coast, and covers the offshore Islas Marías.
The NHC expects 10 to 20 inches (25 to 50 cm) of rain in southwestern Mexico, and up to 30 inches (76 cm) locally. It warned of life-threatening floods and mudslides in Michoacán, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit through Sunday.
How Mexico Is Preparing for Simon
President Claudia Sheinbaum, in office since October 2024 for the left-wing Morena party, said the armed forces had started preventive operations. She urged people in vulnerable areas to move to temporary shelters, El Informador reported.
The government has deployed the preventive phase of the army’s disaster-relief plan, DN-III-E, and of the navy’s equivalent, Plan Marina. Laura Velázquez Alzúa, who heads Mexico’s federal civil protection agency, said command centres would be set up in Jalisco and Colima, Infobae reported.
Jalisco’s civil protection unit said all non-essential activity on the state’s coast would stop from 5 p.m. on Saturday, including public transport and petrol stations. Sergio Ramírez López, who heads the unit, told people in risk zones to follow the authorities’ instructions.
Puerto Vallarta has opened five temporary shelters for Hurricane Simon, mostly in schools and university buildings, and the city may add more. About 500 people had been evacuated in Cabo Corrientes, the coastal municipality south of the city, El Informador reported.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), bettors gave Simon a 61% chance of reaching Category 5. That was the price at 2:14 a.m. ET on 10 October, up from 14% a day earlier.
That contract pays out only if Simon’s maximum sustained winds reach 157 mph or more, the Category 5 threshold. About 11,200 contracts have changed hands across Kalshi’s five Simon strength bets, each paying US$1 if right.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP), the company that runs Manzanillo International Airport, said airlines had cancelled all commercial flights scheduled for Saturday. The airport stays open for general aviation and navy flights if the weather allows, and no restart date was given, El Informador reported.
El Informador also reported that several Puerto Vallarta hotels had suspended weekend bookings. Jalisco’s civil protection unit asked families and tourists to reconsider coastal trips this weekend and to contact their airline, hotel or agency.
The US State Department rates Colima at Level 4, “Do not travel”, and Jalisco at Level 3, “Reconsider travel”, citing terrorism, crime and kidnapping. Its advisory of 29 May limits travel in Colima to central Manzanillo’s tourist and port areas and sets no restrictions for Puerto Vallarta.
Practical preparation steps are set out in this Hurricane Simón checklist for foreigners in Mexico.
What Is Not Known
The exact landfall point and time of Hurricane Simon are still uncertain, because forecasters cannot rule out a track that keeps the centre just offshore. Its strength at the coast is also open, since the NHC says the peak of such a compact storm is very hard to predict.
Officials have not yet given a full evacuation count for the coast or a date for flights to resume at Manzanillo. The NHC said more watches or warnings may be needed for southwestern and west-central Mexico on Saturday.
More: Mexico news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where is Hurricane Simon expected to hit Mexico?
The NHC expects the centre to be near or just inland of Mexico’s west-central coast, around Colima and Jalisco, later on Saturday or on Sunday. A hurricane warning runs from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, which includes Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.
How strong is Hurricane Simon?
At midnight local time on Saturday 10 October, Simon was a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds near 140 mph (220 km/h). The NHC expects more rapid strengthening before it nears the coast.
Are flights to Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo cancelled?
Airlines cancelled all commercial flights at Manzanillo’s airport for Saturday 10 October, according to the airport operator GAP. Travellers to Puerto Vallarta should check with their airline, as Jalisco has asked visitors to reconsider weekend trips.
What should Americans in the area do?
Follow instructions from Mexican civil protection officials and move to a shelter if told to evacuate. Keep in touch with your airline and hotel, and follow NHC and Mexican weather service updates on Hurricane Simon.
Sources: US National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Simon Intermediate Advisory 11A, 10 October 2026; US National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Simon Discussion 11, 9 October 2026; US State Department, Mexico Travel Advisory, 29 May 2026; El Informador (Puerto Vallarta, civil protection), 9 October 2026; El Informador (Manzanillo airport), 9 October 2026; El Informador (federal response), 9 October 2026; Infobae México, 9 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief