Market reduces Brazil inflation forecast for 2022 to 6.40%

For the 11th consecutive week, the financial market has lowered its forecast for Brazilian inflation this year.

The estimate for the IPCA (National Wide Consumer Price Index) fell from 6.61% to 6.40%.

In the Focus Bulletin, the percentages were published this Monday (12) by the BC (Central Bank). Here you can find the entire document.

The report is published every Monday and summarizes the statistical forecasts of analysts surveyed by the Central Bank since 2000.

Despite the successive declines, the percentage in 2022 is expected to be outside the inflation target of 3% to 5% set by the CMN (National Monetary Council).

The projection for next year is also above the 3.25% target set by the agency, with a tolerance interval of 1.75% to 4.75%.

For the 11th consecutive week, the financial market raised the estimate for GDP (gross domestic product) growth in Brazil in 2022. The expansion rate increased from 2.26% to 2.39%.

Analysts surveyed by the Monetary Authority do not change the projections for the value of the exchange rate at the end of the year and the percentage of the base rate, the Selic.

For 2023, analysts lowered the inflation forecast for the fourth week in a row. It fell from 5.27% to 5.17%.

The estimate for GDP rose for the second week in a row, from a growth of 0.47% to a high of 0.50%.

The outlook for the dollar (R$5.20) and the interest rate (11.25% p.a.) remained unchanged.