LatAm Expat & Nomad Daily Guide for Friday, October 9, 2026
LatAm Expat & Nomad Daily Guide — Friday, October 9, 2026
00The LatAm Expat Nomad Daily Guide Status Board
| Story | Yesterday | Now | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane Simón | Tropical storm (Thu morning) | Hurricane, 75 mph winds (Thu 9 p.m. Mexico central time) | Strengthening |
| Brazil presidency | Runoff Sun 25 Oct, 17 days away | Runoff Sun 25 Oct, 16 days away | Campaign continues |
| Brazil PTAX (sell) | Wed 7 Oct: 4.9935 | Thu 8 Oct: 5.0119 | Real slightly weaker |
| Colombia TRM | Thu 8 Oct: 3,238.88 | Fri 9 Oct: 3,218.75 | Peso firmer |
| Chile observado | Thu 8 Oct: 979.85 | Fri 9 Oct: 981.61 | Peso slightly weaker |
| Argentina country risk | Wed 7 Oct: 586 | Thu 8 Oct: 588 | Little changed |
| Peru reference rate | 4.25%, held this week | 4.25%, next meeting Thu 12 Nov | Unchanged |
01Getting Around
Mexico’s Pacific coast: Hurricane Simón. The NHC upgraded Simón to a hurricane on Thursday 8 October. At 9 p.m. Mexico central time it had winds near 75 mph (120 km/h) and sat about 235 miles (380 km) south of Manzanillo, Telemundo reported, citing the NHC. The NHC expects Simón to reach Category 4 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, a category that begins at winds of 130 mph (210 km/h).
Telemundo also reported a hurricane warning from Playa Pérula in Jalisco to Punta Mita in Nayarit, and a tropical storm watch east of Punta San Telmo to Lázaro Cárdenas in Michoacán. The NHC expects 8 to 15 inches (200 to 380 mm) of rain through Sunday, with isolated totals of 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm) in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. It warned of deadly flooding and landslides on steep ground.
Forecasts on timing differ. Telemundo’s summary of the NHC put the approach on Saturday afternoon. Mexican media citing the national weather service (SMN) on Wednesday, when it forecast a weaker storm, saw Jalisco on Sunday and Nayarit and Sinaloa on Monday. We could not read the NHC bulletins directly, and the track can still shift. If you have a flight or hotel on the coast of Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit or Sinaloa this weekend, ask your airline or hotel about changes. Our storm report follows the track.
A holiday Monday. Monday 12 October is a national holiday in Brazil (Our Lady of Aparecida), Argentina, Chile (Encounter of Two Worlds) and Colombia. Each country gets a three-day weekend. Brazil’s stock exchange, B3, is closed and bank branches shut, while banking apps keep working. See our closures guide and our Colombia holiday weekends explainer.
Brazil: loud weeks, normal days. Campaigning continues until the runoff on Sunday 25 October. Foreign residents do not vote.
02Cost of Living & Money
Each measure is labelled, and dates differ by country. Brazil and Argentina are Thursday’s figures; Chile and Colombia are today’s official rates; Mexico and Peru are market estimates.
Brazil. The PTAX fixing was 5.0119 reais to sell on Thursday 8 October, against 4.9935 on Wednesday and 5.2238 on Friday 2 October. At 5.0119, R$1,000 is about US$200.
Mexico. We use a market estimate of 18.10 pesos per dollar from open.er-api.com, updated at midnight UTC on Friday. It is not the official FIX rate (Banxico’s daily reference rate). At 18.10, MXN 10,000 is about US$552.
Chile. The observado (the official dollar rate) is 981.61 pesos for Friday, against 979.85 for Thursday. At 981.61, CLP 1,000,000 is about US$1,019. The UF (Chile’s inflation-indexed unit used in rents and mortgages) is 41,130.94 pesos, about US$42.
Colombia. The TRM (the official representative rate) is 3,218.75 pesos per dollar for Friday 9 October. It was 3,238.88 on Thursday. At 3,218.75, COP 1,000,000 is about US$311.
Argentina. DolarApi shows the official Banco Nación rate at 1,490 to buy and 1,540 to sell (Thursday afternoon). The blue (informal market rate) is 1,520 and 1,540, so its sell price matches the official one. The CCL (contado con liquidación, a rate for dollars bought through securities) is 1,612.7 and 1,613.6, all quoted on Thursday. ARS 1,000,000 is about US$649 at the official sell rate and about US$620 at the CCL sell rate. ArgentinaDatos puts country risk at 588 points on Thursday 8 October.
Peru. We could not obtain SUNAT’s (the tax authority’s) rate. A market estimate from open.er-api.com, updated at midnight UTC on Friday, shows 3.440 soles per dollar, and banks quote their own rates. At 3.440, PEN 1,000 is about US$291.
The wider picture. The dollar sold for 5.22 reais on 2 October and 5.01 on 8 October, so the real is still stronger than a week ago even after Thursday’s dip. One week does not set a trend, and currencies often overshoot after political news and then settle.
03Visas, Residency & Tax
Colombia: 22 days left. Foreigners holding a permanent-resident visa issued under earlier rules must transfer it by Saturday 31 October 2026, the Foreign Ministry has reiterated. The process is online; the ministry advises using its official site without intermediaries. Our earlier explainer sets out who is affected.
Colombia: prices and rent. DANE reported 6.29% inflation over 12 months for September, up from 6.24% in August. Colombian law lets a landlord raise a home rent once every 12 months by up to the previous calendar year’s inflation, which was 5.10% for 2025. Our rent explainer sets out the rule.
04What Prediction Markets Say
Brazil’s presidency. Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 85.7% and Lula at 13.5% to win (US$178.0 million traded). Kalshi, a market regulated in the US by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), prices Bolsonaro at 87.0% and Lula at 13.0% (about 5.2 million contracts traded). Stand: 9 October, 00:31 ET.
Lima’s mayor. Voters chose on 4 October and the count is nearly complete, with no runoff. Polymarket prices Rafael López Aliaga at 90.9% and Francis Allison at 3.2% (US$511,506 traded). Stand: 9 October, 00:31 ET.
Colombia’s central bank in October. Polymarket prices no change at 55.5%, a 0.25-point rise at 35.0% and a rise of 0.5 points or more at 11.2% (US$34,591 traded). Stand: 9 October, 00:31 ET.
Argentina’s September inflation. Polymarket prices a monthly rate of 1.9% to 2.1% at 61.5% and 1.6% to 1.8% at 33.5% (US$30,842 traded). Stand: 9 October, 00:31 ET.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
05The Calendar Ahead
Dates come from official calendars and the EODHD economic calendar; consensus figures are forecasts, not ours. The region does not move as one block, and each release can push a currency either way.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where is Hurricane Simón expected to go?
The US National Hurricane Center expected Simón to strengthen to Category 4 and approach Mexico’s south-west and west-central coast from Saturday 10 October 2026. Mexican media citing the weather service saw Jalisco on Sunday and Nayarit and Sinaloa on Monday. The track can still change, so check the latest advisories.
Which Latin American countries have a holiday on Monday 12 October 2026?
Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Colombia. Each marks a national holiday on that Monday and gets a three-day weekend. In Brazil, bank branches and the B3 stock exchange are closed, and banking apps keep working.
What is the deadline to transfer an older Colombian permanent-resident visa?
Saturday 31 October 2026. Colombia’s Foreign Ministry has reiterated that foreigners holding a permanent-resident visa issued under earlier rules must transfer it by that date. The process is online, and from Friday 9 October 22 days remain.
Connected Coverage
- South America Holiday Closures on 12 October 2026
- Hurricane Simón: Checklist for Foreigners in Mexico
- Brazil September Inflation Due Friday Near 4.5% Ceiling
- Mexico’s Storm Simon Could Hit Sinaloa on 12 October
- Colombia Rent Increase Limit Is 5.10% in 2026
- Peru Rate Decision 7 Oct With Lima Inflation at 4.55%
- Colombia Resident Visa Transfer: Old Residente Holders Have Until October 31, 2026
- Colombia hub · Brazil hub · Mexico hub · Peru hub
Sources: US National Hurricane Center (Hurricane Simón advisory of 8 October 2026, 9 p.m. Mexico central time) as reported by Telemundo; Servicio Meteorológico Nacional as reported by La Silla Rota and Infobae; Cancillería de Colombia (visa-transfer notice, 2026); DANE (Colombia, September inflation); Banco Central do Brasil (PTAX, Olinda API); Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia via datos.gov.co (TRM); Banco Central de Chile via mindicador.cl (observado, UF); DolarApi and ArgentinaDatos (Argentina rates and country risk); open.er-api.com (Mexico and Peru market estimates); IBGE and INDEC calendars; EODHD economic calendar; Polymarket and Kalshi (prediction markets, 9 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief