Mexico’s Storm Simon Could Hit Sinaloa on 12 October

MEXICO · WEATHER

Simon is forecast to strengthen fast off Mexico, and the beach city of Mazatlán sits near the end of its projected path.

The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued Advisory 3 on Simon at 9 p.m. Mexico City time on Wednesday, 7 October. It forecasts that the tropical storm will rapidly strengthen into a major hurricane, on a track ending over land in Sinaloa state.

Mexico’s weather service projects landfall near Mazatlán, a Sinaloa beach resort and port, around midday on Monday, 12 October, Línea Directa reported. Airports near the path, in Manzanillo, Puerto Vallarta and Mazatlán, are run by US-listed operators.

Advisory 3 Forecasts Rapid Strengthening

Advisory 3 is timed at 03:00 UTC on Thursday, or 11 p.m. ET on Wednesday. Tropical Storm Simon, often spelled Simón in Mexican media, was then about 270 km (165 miles) south of Lázaro Cárdenas, Michoacán.

Its maximum sustained winds had risen to 85 km/h (50 mph), from 65 km/h (40 mph) six hours earlier. Tropical-storm-force winds reached up to 110 km (70 miles) from the centre.

The NHC expects Simon to become a hurricane on Thursday night and a major hurricane by late Friday or early Saturday. Its forecast peak is 205 km/h (125 mph), a Category 3 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale.

That is up from a 185 km/h (115 mph) peak in the previous advisory. Forecaster Hagen wrote that the new peak sits at the high end of the model guidance.

No coastal watches or warnings were in effect. The NHC said watches would likely be needed for parts of south-western Mexico’s coast overnight into Thursday.

Why Sinaloa Is in Focus

The NHC track takes Simon west-northwest through Thursday, then north, nearly parallel to the coast of west-central Mexico this weekend. Its last forecast point, for 6 p.m. Mexico City time on Monday, 12 October, lies inland in Sinaloa.

Simon would still be a hurricane there, with winds of 130 km/h (80 mph). The NHC notes that its day-five track errors average about 230 km (144 miles).

The NHC says a track farther east would mean an earlier landfall, while one farther west would keep Simon over water longer. NHC wind probabilities give Manzanillo a 68% chance of tropical-storm-force winds through Monday, Puerto Vallarta 58% and Mazatlán 39%.

Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (SMN), part of the national water commission Conagua, sees a similar path. Its scenario issued on Wednesday puts Simon on land 50 km (31 miles) north-northwest of Mazatlán at midday Monday, Línea Directa reported.

That scenario has a Category 1 hurricane at landfall, with sustained winds of 150 km/h (93 mph). It also has Simon peaking as a Category 3 storm off Jalisco on Saturday.

Sinaloa Prepares for a Possible Monday Landfall

Sinaloa’s civil protection authorities expect Simon could reach the south of the state around 6 a.m. on Monday if the track holds. Noroeste, a Sinaloa daily, reported the estimate on Wednesday.

Roy Navarrete Cuevas, the state’s civil protection coordinator, said the forecast still carries a cone of uncertainty. He said he met Governor Graciela Domínguez Nava to convene the state civil protection council.

Municipal councils, which bring together federal, state and local officials, will also be called to meet. Navarrete urged residents of the coast and the mountains to follow official bulletins and take precautions.

In Mazatlán, federal, state and city authorities readied seven sites as temporary shelters on Wednesday, Línea Directa reported. The shelters will open only if conditions require it.

No evacuations, school closures or port closures had been announced in Sinaloa by early Thursday. The storm’s formation and earlier Puerto Vallarta forecast are covered in Storm Simón May Near Puerto Vallarta.

Heavy Rain Is the First Threat

The NHC forecasts 200 to 305 mm (8 to 12 inches) of rain over parts of south-western Mexico through Sunday. Isolated totals of 380 to 635 mm (15 to 25 inches) are possible in Colima and Michoacán.

That rain may cause life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially on steep terrain. Swells are likely to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast through the weekend.

What It Means for You

Travellers booked into Manzanillo, Puerto Vallarta, Nuevo Vallarta or Mazatlán from Friday to Tuesday should watch airline, hotel and cruise-line notices. The US State Department’s advisories remain the official guidance for US citizens in Mexico.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP), listed on the New York Stock Exchange as PAC, runs the Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo airports. On Tuesday, 6 October, it said Hurricane Polo had partly affected Puerto Vallarta and Los Cabos operations in late September.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMA), whose shares trade in the US under the ticker OMAB, operates the Mazatlán and Culiacán airports. Any disruption would show up in the October traffic figures both operators publish monthly.

What Is Not Known

It is not known whether Simon will brush Jalisco or Nayarit before reaching Sinaloa, or stay offshore longer. The NHC and SMN differ on timing and on Simon’s strength near Mazatlán.

The landfall time, location and wind speeds could change with each new advisory. It is also unclear when coastal watches will be issued, and for which stretch of coast.

What Comes Next

The NHC’s next full advisory is due at 3 a.m. Mexico City time (5 a.m. ET) on Thursday. Full advisories follow every six hours.

A hurricane watch, typically issued 48 hours before tropical-storm-force winds are expected, means hurricane conditions are possible. A Monday landfall near Mazatlán is a forecast scenario, not a certainty.

Both the NHC and the SMN stress that forecasts several days out carry wide margins.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will Storm Simon hit Mazatlán?

Mexico’s weather service projects landfall about 50 km (31 miles) north-northwest of Mazatlán around midday on Monday, 12 October, Línea Directa reported. The NHC’s five-day track also ends over land in Sinaloa, but the path can still shift.

How strong will Simon get?

The NHC forecasts a peak of 205 km/h (125 mph), a Category 3 major hurricane, on Saturday. It expects Simon to weaken to about 130 km/h (80 mph) by the time it is over Sinaloa.

Are there hurricane warnings for Mexico?

No coastal watches or warnings were in effect in NHC Advisory 3. The NHC said watches would likely be needed for parts of south-western Mexico overnight into Thursday.

How much rain will Simon bring?

The NHC forecasts 200 to 305 mm (8 to 12 inches) over parts of south-western Mexico through Sunday. Isolated totals of 380 to 635 mm (15 to 25 inches) are possible in Colima and Michoacán.

What should US travellers do?

No evacuations or airport closures had been announced in Sinaloa by early Thursday. Travellers should follow airline, hotel and cruise-line notices and official NHC and SMN updates.

Sources: US National Hurricane Center, Public Advisory 3; NHC Forecast Advisory 3; NHC Discussion 3; NHC Wind Speed Probabilities 3; NHC Forecast Advisory 2; SMN-Conagua, Aviso 80-26; Gobierno del Estado de Sinaloa; GAP, September 2026 traffic release; OMA investor relations; Noroeste; Línea Directa (SMN scenario); Línea Directa (Advisory 3); Línea Directa (Mazatlán shelters) (all accessed 8 October 2026).