Global Economy Briefing — September 25, 2026
Global Markets: Bonds Keep Investors on Edge. US stocks wobble as yields rise; Brazil cuts Selic to 13.75% while Fed policy steers emerging-market risk.
Rio Times Global Economy Briefing
The Big Three
- Bond pressure keeps the mood defensive The global bond rout persisted, keeping major yields at multi-decade highs; oil and the dollar rose while US stocks flattened near records.
- Brazil eases again, but real rates remain steep The Banco Central do Brasil cut the Selic by 25 basis points to 13.75% in mid-September, its fifth consecutive reduction, while keeping future moves open.
- US data and Fed speakers set the next test Friday’s calendar includes August US durable-goods orders, a speech by New York Fed President John Williams and Brazil’s mid-month IPCA inflation report.
United States
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Durable goods orders, Aug | -0.4% est | +1.1% | Awaited; tests factory momentum |
| Durable goods ex transport | +0.6% est | +0.4% | Core demand seen firm |
| Fed funds target | 3.75%-4.00% | 3.50%-3.75% | Hawkish hold priced |
Europe & United Kingdom
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| German GfK consumer confidence, Oct | -27.4 est | -26.6 | Household gloom deepens |
| Spanish GDP, Q2 q/q | 0.7% cons | 0.7% | Awaited confirmation |
Asia-Pacific & Emerging Markets
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil Selic | 13.75% | 14.00% | Fifth straight 25bp cut |
| Brazil mid-month IPCA, Sep y/y | 4.30% est | 4.24% | Inflation above target comfort |
| Mexico unemployment rate, Aug | 3.0% est | 2.9% | Labour market steady |
| CFTC BRL net positions | Awaited | 58 | Speculators trim shorts? |
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,704 | -0.02% |
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 183,966 | -0.99% |
| USD/BRL | 5.1928 | +0.44% |
Source: market close, 24 September 2026.
Today’s Economic Calendar — Friday, September 25, 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | US | UN General Assembly | — | — |
| 00:00 | CN | Mid-Autumn Festival | — | — |
| 03:35 | JP | 3-Month Bill Auction | — | 1.207 |
| 06:00 | DE | Consumer Confidence | -27.4 | -26.6 |
| 09:15 | US | Fed Williams Speech | — | — |
| 12:00 | MX | Unemployment Rate n.s.a | 3 | 2.9 |
| 12:00 | MX | Unemployment Rate | 3 | 2.9 |
| 12:00 | BR | IPCA mid-month CPI | 4.3 | 4.24 |
| 12:00 | BR | IPCA mid-month CPI | 0.53 | -0.4 |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense | -0.6 | 1.3 |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders | -0.4 | 1.1 |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 13:20 | US | Fed Schmid Speech | — | — |
| 17:00 | US | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 453 | 452 |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Hammack Speech | — | — |
| 19:30 | BR | CFTC BRL speculative net positions | — | 58 |
| 19:30 | US | CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions | — | 33.7 |
Live Market IntelligenceGlobal Markets — Live Board
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Global Markets — Live Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,377 | +0.31% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | 26,990 | +1.35% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DJI | 51,286 | -0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| RUT | 2,754 | +0.89% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US10Y | 4.8590 | +0.45% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VIX | 24.38 | -4.91% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAX | 25,968 | +0.57% | — | — | — | — | — |
| FTSE | 10,724 | +0.47% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CAC | 8,161 | +0.27% | — | — | — | — | — |
| STOXX | 651.61 | +0.51% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIKKEI | 58,776 | +2.33% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HSI | 24,449 | -0.13% | — | — | — | — | — |
| KOSPI | 5,019 | -0.81% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CSI300 | 4,056 | +0.05% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIFTY | 24,982 | -0.02% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSX | 35,789 | +0.52% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOLD | 4,102 | +0.67% | -0.48% | 4,075 | 4,143 | 4,063 | 54,670 |
| SILVER | 52.46 | +1.26% | +4.54% | 51.80 | 53.47 | 51.42 | 15,199 |
01 The rally stalls at 5 percent
Thursday’s session carried the feel of a market leaning into a headwind. The US 10-year yield settled at 5.162%, a fresh reminder that government borrowing costs are now competing directly with equities.
The S&P 500 closed at 7,704, down a marginal 0.02%, while the Dow slipped 0.31% to 51,350. The Nasdaq managed a 0.01% gain to 26,939, showing just how narrow the leadership has become.
Gold eased 0.12% to $4,265.09 an ounce after its record run, and the dollar index firmed 0.17% to 101.268. A VIX of 15.67, up 3.23% on the day, hints at caution but not panic.
For Latin America, a firm dollar and a 5 percent-plus US yield raise the financing bar. Brazil’s real and the Ibovespa can survive this only if the carry premium stays wide enough.
02 The Fed’s shadow over every carry trade
The Federal Reserve’s target range remains at 3.75%-4.00% after a September hike, and Friday’s speech by New York Fed President John Williams may signal whether policy will bite harder. Durable-goods orders for August, expected to fall 0.4%, test that resolve.
A strong core-orders print could justify the 5.162% yield and keep the dollar bid. A weak one would raise questions about the soft-landing narrative without quickly undoing inflation fears.
Brazil is moving the other way, but carefully. Copom cut the Selic to 13.75% on 16 September, its fifth straight reduction, and traders now price 13.50% by year-end.
The lure of Brazil’s carry remains, but it is relative. If the US 10-year stays above 5 percent, the risk-reward of stretching for the real weakens.
03 Brazil cuts, but IPCA keeps the guard up
The Banco Central do Brasil’s fifth straight cut was no surprise, but the tone stayed cautious. Copom refused to pre-commit to future moves before October’s presidential election and the next inflation readings.
Friday’s mid-month IPCA is the immediate test. The consensus is 4.30% year-on-year, up from 4.24% prior, and a monthly rise of 0.53% after a 0.4% fall.
A hot print would support the central bank’s caution and could slow the easing cycle. It would also complicate the government’s push for lower borrowing costs during an election year.
For Latin America overall, the logic is simple. Falling Brazilian rates boost domestic credit, but the dollar and global yields decide how much room policymakers have.
04 Europe and Asia add little relief
Outside the Americas the tape offered little relief. Germany’s GfK consumer confidence reading for October is expected to slip to -27.4 from -26.6, a sign that household gloom in Europe’s largest economy is deepening rather than bottoming out.
Spanish second-quarter GDP is expected to confirm growth of 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, one of the few firm spots in the euro area. Japan’s three-month bill auction and China’s Mid-Autumn Festival closure meanwhile thin out Asian liquidity on a Friday heavy with US data.
For Latin America the pass-through is indirect but real: softer European demand weighs on commodity volumes, and thin Asian sessions can exaggerate currency moves when US numbers land. With oil rising and the dollar firm, fuel and machinery importers across the region start the final week of the quarter on the defensive.
What to watch today and this week
- Thursday: Global bond yields pushed higher, oil rose and the dollar firmed; US equities recovered late.
- Friday: US durable-goods orders; Williams, Schmid and Hammack speeches; Brazil mid-month IPCA; Mexico unemployment; German confidence and Spanish GDP.
- Next week: Watch whether the 5 percent US yield broadens the sell-off into equities, currencies and emerging-market funding costs.
- Ongoing: Brazil’s election outlook, Copom guidance, Fed communication and the dollar’s direction.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are markets uneasy?
The global bond sell-off has pushed the US 10-year yield to 5.162%, lifting borrowing costs and pressuring equity valuations.
What did Brazil’s central bank do?
Copom cut the Selic rate by 25 basis points to 13.75% in mid-September, its fifth consecutive reduction.
What is the IPCA reading?
Brazil’s mid-month IPCA for September is expected at 4.30% year-on-year, a modest uptick from 4.24% previously.
Why does the strong dollar matter for Latin America?
A firmer dollar index at 101.268 and high US yields raise external financing costs and weaken the appeal of local assets.
Is Brazil still attractive for carry trades?
Yes, but less so. A Selic of 13.75% still offers a cushion, yet a 5.162% US yield shrinks the effective premium.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error