Five keys to understanding the presidential election in Chile

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – This Sunday, November 21, Chile will hold one of the most critical, uncertain, and exciting presidential elections since the return to democracy in 1990. Not only will candidates from all ends of the ideological spectrum compete, but also because whoever wins will be the first president in 15 years not to bear the last name of Bachelet or Piñera.

Whoever wins will have the enormous responsibility of calming a country that has conflicted with the social outbreak of 2019. Last but not least, they will have to implement the new political constitution, which is still in the drafting stage.

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Below are some essential points to analyze and understand Sunday’s presidential election.

WHO ARE THE MAIN CANDIDATES?

From left to far right, there are options for all preferences. However, what means ideological plurality for some is, for others, a sign of the level of polarization and fragmentation that Chilean society has been experiencing for years, and that became visible in October 2019, when society took to the streets en masse to demand change.

For this reason, in these presidential elections, we will find candidates with diametrically opposed proposals. Among the most prominent, we can name five. In first place is Gabriel Boric, candidate of the left-wing alliance “Apruebo Dignidad”.

Only 35 years old and coming from Punta Arenas, the deputy for the Magallanes region is a relatively new name in politics. However, Boric has been part of the Chilean public sphere for more than ten years. He led one of the most critical educational marches in the country’s history, demanding the right to free education.

His program promises to transform Chile into a welfare state where pensions, education, and health care are provided and guaranteed to all people regardless of their socioeconomic status.

Boric has also distinguished himself by advocating an environmental agenda in a country where water is not considered an essential public resource, and proposing greater decentralization in the country’s regions.

On the other side of the ideological spectrum is lawyer José Antonio Kast, a right-wing conservative candidate whose positions are opposed to Boric’s. According to Kast, Chile must downsize the state, make public spending more efficient, reduce VAT, and ensure order and security in a society where conflict has come to the fore in recent years.

As with Boric, his government program has drawn criticism. Kast stated that if he took office, he would privatize state-owned enterprises, provide more money to the security forces, and even seek to repeal the law on abortion in cases of rape.

On the side of more moderate options are Yasna Provoste (Christian Democracy – DC) and Sebastián Sichel (Chile Vamos). Although both promise stability without extremism, all polls show that they would not be the most voted option in a polarizing election.

Moreover, both Provoste and Sichel are associated with the traditional Chilean parties that society is eager to leave behind. The DC candidate was Michelle Bachelet’s education minister and a historic leader of the Concertación coalition. Sichel, on the other hand, belongs to the governing alliance, and since he is backed by president Sebastián Piñera, he has lost voter support.

Even further behind is Franco Parisi, a right-wing candidate with a certain air of charisma who will go down in history as the presidential candidate who is not on Chilean soil and is practically running his campaign from the United States. Despite this, polls rate him with 8% of the vote.

WHAT DO THE CITIZENS SAY ABOUT THE CANDIDATES?

Although they are at the two extremes of the ideological spectrum, Boric and Kast represent the same values, but for different social groups. Both embody hope and fear at the same time.

For Boric’s voters, the leftist candidate is the only option for real change in Chile, leading to greater justice in a structurally unequal society. However, according to other more conservative circles, a possible government by the young candidate would be “an economic disaster, since it would mean a return to socialism.”

For them, therefore, Kast is the only sign of hope. For a large part of Chileans, however, the figure of Kast is highly controversial and polarizing. The far-right candidate has not only spoken of tax cuts and more efficient public spending but has also expressed a willingness to replicate the model of Augusto Pinochet, a figure he says he admires.

WHO IS AHEAD IN THE POLLS?

Chile is experiencing not only the most polarizing presidential campaign in its recent democratic history but also the most uncertain. The polls have identified different winners in recent months, with Boric and Sichel generally at the top of the electoral preferences.

That changed in the last six weeks, however, as Kast has enjoyed a meteoric rise that has brought him not only into the race but to the top of most polls. Several pollsters even see him as a possible winner in both the first and second rounds.

According to the latest published polls (since Chilean law stipulates that no poll results can be published two weeks before the election), Boric and Kast are the two candidates preferred by voters.

However, there are some troubling facts. First, no candidate has received more than 25% of the vote, indicating deep dissatisfaction with the Chilean political class. Moreover, until two weeks ago, 25% of voters were still undecided. Given these numbers and that voting is not compulsory in Chile, one will have to wait until next Sunday to have more certainty.

SO WHO CAN WIN?

Apart from the fact that the election’s outcome is uncertain, there will probably be no winner this Sunday because it is very likely that no candidate will receive the 50% of the votes needed to win in the first round. In that case, the presidential election will be decided in a second-round vote on Sunday, December 19, between the two candidates with the most votes.

IN WHAT FRAMEWORK WILL THESE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS TAKE PLACE?

The elections are not only uncertain and polarized but also take place in a highly conflictual environment. Chile is currently experiencing a triple crisis: representative, economic and social. Many agree that the emergence of candidates like Boric or Kast is nothing more than the product of a social, political, and economic model that exploded in October 2019.

The next elections will be held with a president whose approval rating does not exceed 12%, with impeachment proceedings, with an economic crisis resulting from the Covid 19 pandemic, with a constitutional convention where opinions are divided on its performance, with the drafting of a new political constitution, with rumors that the next government will be only a transitional one, and with a part of society that increasingly demands that Chile finally say goodbye to the remnants of the Pinochet dictatorship.

With information from El Economista

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