Higher Chicken and Pork Prices Will Not Revert to Previous Levels, Says Association

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The rise in the price of these other meats should also increase with the end-of-year festivities and continue throughout the first half of next year, according to Ricardo Santin, executive director of ABPA (Brazilian Association of Animal Protein), representing pork, poultry and egg producers.

Moreover, the industry expects prices not to return to what was seen in butcher shops and supermarkets last year.

While the price of cattle in São Paulo rose on average 35.5 percent in November compared to October, the price of pork increased 13.3 percent and 17.8 percent for frozen chicken, according to data from CEPEA (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics) at USP (São Paulo University).

In some butcher shops visited by UOL in São Paulo this week, the price of chicken almost doubled between October and December, rising from R$8.90/kg to R$15.90. The rise in beef also caused the government to closely analyze the increase in the price of poultry.

Pork exports increased after the plague

As in the case of beef, pork exports have also intensified, stimulated by African swine fever, which is affecting Asia. This year, until October, 582,900 tons of pork were exported, 12 percent more than in the same period in 2018, according to the Foreign Trade Secretariat.

However, production will not follow the increase, according to Santin. The increase in production should be between one and two percent, he said.

“It’s going to be a very strong pressure [on price] now, at the end of the year festivities, when people consume more, buy more for their barbecues, their parties, but it will continue at least until the middle of next year,” he says. “Because there is no bigger demand that can offset this increase in exports.”

Even so, the director states that there is no risk of shortages of these products in Brazil.

Prices are not likely to revert to those of last year

Last week, the Minister of Agriculture, Tereza Cristina, said that the price of beef will not return to the previous level due to the lack of readjustment in the last three years.

Ricardo Santin says the same goes for chicken and, mainly, pork. The price of pork was low for more than two years, reflecting the suspension of imports by Russia in 2017, according to the director of ABPA.

“The price will no longer return [to the previous level] because the production cost no longer allows it”.

He says that, despite the increase in production expected for the coming months to meet the higher demand from abroad, it is hard to forecast whether prices will drop compared to the current levels, particularly in the case of pork.

“No matter how much the producers make an effort to increase production, they will not follow the importers’ eagerness,” he says.

Source: UOL