In Brazil’s upcoming municipal elections, centrist parties have taken the lead in over half of the country’s largest cities. The Union Brazil, PSD, and MDB parties are frontrunners in municipalities with more than 200,000 voters, according to recent polls.
Political scientist Murilo Medeiros from the University of Brasília conducted a study called “The Electoral Strength of G103.” This research analyzed 103 Brazilian cities with populations exceeding 200,000, where runoff elections are possible.
These municipalities, dubbed the “electoral GDP” by Medeiros, represent 40% of Brazil’s electorate. The study used the most recent electoral surveys registered with the Superior Electoral Court to determine leading candidates in each city.
Union Brazil, formed by merging PSL and DEM parties, leads in 19 cities. This includes major capitals like Salvador, Cuiabá, and Teresina, as well as regional hubs such as Feira de Santana.
Jair Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) is ahead in 15 municipalities, followed closely by PSD with 14 cities. MDB and PP are competitive in 11 and 10 cities respectively, while Republicanos leads in 8.
Surprisingly, the Workers’ Party (PT) of President Lula is struggling, leading in only four cities. This poor performance comes despite having federal government support at its disposal.
The centrist parties’ dominance suggests a shift away from the polarization that characterized Brazil’s last national election. These parties now lead in 54% of the largest municipalities, while PT and PL combined lead in just 18%.
Medeiros explains that municipal elections often focus on local issues rather than national politics. Voters prioritize candidates who address city-specific problems like healthcare and education over broader ideological debates.
The PL stands out as the only party with leading candidates across all regions of Brazil. It shows particular strength in the North and Southeast, including unexpected leads in some traditionally left-leaning Northeastern capitals.
In contrast, the PT faces challenges in large cities, a stark difference from its peak in 2008. The party now leads in only four G103 cities, with just one in the Northeast despite Lula’s regional popularity.
Centrist Parties Lead Mayoral Races in Brazil’s Largest Cities
Medeiros attributes PT’s struggles to lingering anti-PT sentiment and the party’s strategy of supporting candidates from other parties in key races. This approach aims to secure alliances for the 2026 elections but may reflect a lack of new leadership within the PT.
The PSDB, once PT’s main opposition, has also lost ground. It now leads in only four large electoral colleges, down from 18 victories in 2020 among cities with over 200,000 voters.
Other parties show regional strengths. PSD performs well nationwide, particularly in the South. MDB dominates in the North, while Republicanos shows promise in the Southeast, with potential victories in major cities like Belo Horizonte.
As Brazil’s municipal elections approach, these trends suggest a complex political landscape. Centrist parties are gaining ground, while traditional powerhouses face new challenges in connecting with urban voters across the country.
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