Brazil’s soybean exports likely to drop in May after record, as China market declines – AgRural

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Brazil’s soybean exports in May are expected to pull back after posting an all-time record for all months in April, with the market slightly more supplied after large shipments from the world’s largest producer and exporter, according to analysts and port scheduling data.

In addition, a more cautious China in trading -after the product’s prices on the Chicago exchange reached its highest levels in about 8 years- and negative premiums against futures contracts in Brazilian ports have confirmed that “the best is behind us” for Brazil’s exports this year, said AgRural analyst Fernando Muraro.

“China has been absent from our market, after big purchases. They (Chinese) have faded away from the Brazilian market,” said Muraro, noting that the Chinese strategy “was perfect” when they bought large volumes in advance, before the price boom.

After a “wonderful” April, with historical shipments of 17.38 million tons, Muraro assesses that a “good” number for May would point to something between 14 million and 15 million tons in national exports.

Data from Cargonave shipping agency show a less intense schedule of ships loading soybeans in Brazilian ports than in April.

According to Cargonave, there were about 180 ships scheduled to load soybeans in May, similar to the number seen in the schedule for the same month last year. However, the “line-up” for April indicated about 250 vessels early last month.

Considering that each ship carries about 60,000 tons, the shipments estimated for this month, so far, would reach almost 11 million tons.

With large exports in May – albeit below the April record -, the indication is of a concentration of Brazilian shipments in the first semester of the year, said AgRural’s analyst, who projects between 83 and 85 million tons for the year – a total that could be a record, should it reach the upper range.

Between January and April, Brazil’s soybean exports increased 6.5% in volume, to almost 34 million tons, according to data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX).

“We will experience a strong pace in the first semester, but many doubts start to hang in the air for the second semester, we are noticing the absence of China, while the American crop is in play…,” said Muraro, recalling that the Chinese are waiting for indications on the size of U.S. production, which is currently planting the next harvest.

Another sign that the “best is over” for Brazil’s soybean exports is that logistics operators are looking for cargo for June, the analyst said. “Everything is contracted in May, but June… I would like to check from June forward…”

UNFAVORABLE WEATHER

Another factor to be considered for Brazilian exports is the weather. Although the interior of Brazil has predominantly dry weather, it has been raining on the coast, which hinders shipments, that can not be carried out with humidity.

The ports of Santos and Paranaguá, the country’s most important for soybeans, are expected to run into issues this week, Rural Clima agrometeorologist Marco Antonio dos Santos said on Tuesday, May 4. “The whole Brazilian coast… the whole coastal strip will experience heavy rain, rendering shipping work unfeasible,” he said.