Brazil’s Political Powder Keg Ignites as Lula’s Star Fades

A Genial/Quaest survey, unveiled on April 2, 2025, exposes a brutal slide in President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s approval, crashing from 47% in January to 41% in March.

Disapproval spikes from 49% to 56%, the bleakest mark since he reclaimed power in January 2023. His allies call it a “bombshell,” watching nervously as it stokes a fire under ex-President Jair Bolsonaro’s April 6 rally in São Paulo, demanding amnesty for the January 8, 2023, rioters.

Soaring food prices slash Lula’s support, with inflation at 0.78% in March and staples like rice jumping 1.2%, per the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The Northeast, his loyal heartland, wavers—approval dips from 59% to 52%.

Bolsonaro’s camp pounces, with São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas hammering Lula’s economic flops at a March 16 rally, setting the stage for a showdown.

Brazil’s Political Turmoil

The heat intensifies as Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party leans on Chamber President Hugo Motta to rush an amnesty bill for 1,200 rioters. An Atlas/Intel poll, showing 53.6% disapproval, piles on the pressure. Lula’s crew fights back, slashing food tariffs on March 6, but the fix lags.

His Workers’ Party eyes 2026, knowing time slips away to salvage his re-election shot. Bolsonaro, sidelined until 2030 by a court ban, rallies his faithful, decrying Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes as a tyrant.

His April 6 event looms large, building on past crowds of thousands. Lula’s grip weakens—approval among women and the poorest plunges 10 and 12 points since late 2024, stung by inflation and the January “Pix crisis” fiasco.

Business leaders track this chaos, wary of Brazil’s teetering stability. Lula pushes tax breaks for low earners, but fiscal doubts swirl.

The opposition, lacking a clear 2026 champion, keeps the future murky. As economic pain and street fervor collide, Lula battles to hold his ground in a nation on edge.

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