Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for September 10, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets face a turbulent landscape shaped by escalating geopolitical tensions, domestic economic challenges, and global uncertainties.
The U.S. threat of military action to protect free speech worldwide, issued by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt amid Brazil’s Supreme Court trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has intensified diplomatic friction.
Washington’s move to impose 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports worth $40 billion annually is disrupting key sectors such as machinery (-23.6%), wood (-14%), and auto parts (-5.6%).
This crisis, coupled with Banco do Brasil’s reliance on government support to navigate a deepening farm crisis due to falling commodity prices and rising rural debt, signals heightened economic strain.
Brazil’s auto sector also faces contradictions, with August production rising 2.5% but sales dropping 4.1%, reflecting weak consumer demand amid high interest rates.
Official data further confirm manufacturing’s ongoing struggles, with industrial output declining 0.8% in August due to high borrowing costs and sluggish demand.
The latest Focus Report projects Brazil’s 2025 GDP growth slowing to 2.16%, underscoring fading economic momentum. These developments amplify volatility risks as today’s economic agenda provides critical insights into inflation and trade dynamics.
Economic Agenda for September 10, 2025
Brazil (10th Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$2.125 trillion)
- 8:00 AM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus -0.15%, Previous 0.26%. Tracks monthly consumer price changes, signaling inflationary pressures.
- 8:00 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 5.10%, Previous 5.23%. Measures annual inflation trends, critical for monetary policy.
- 8:00 AM BRT – Brazilian IPCA Inflation Index SA (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.35%. Reflects seasonally adjusted monthly inflation.
- 1:30 PM BRT – Foreign Exchange Flows: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -0.231B. Tracks capital inflows/outflows, impacting the real’s stability.
Implication: Today’s CPI data will gauge whether inflation is easing from 5.23% toward the Central Bank’s 4.5% target, crucial amid 15% Selic rates and U.S. tariff pressures.
Stable or lower inflation could signal room for rate cuts, supporting consumer spending and industrial recovery, while FX flows will reflect investor confidence amid geopolitical risks and Bolsonaro’s trial.
United States (Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$30.50 trillion)
- 7:00 AM BRT – MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 6.64%. Influences housing demand and borrowing costs.
- 7:00 AM BRT – MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -1.2%. Tracks mortgage demand shifts.
- 7:00 AM BRT – MBA Purchase Index: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 158.7. Gauges home-buying activity.
- 7:00 AM BRT – Mortgage Market Index: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 272.5. Reflects overall mortgage activity.
- 7:00 AM BRT – Mortgage Refinance Index: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 902.5. Measures refinancing trends.
- 8:30 AM BRT – Core PPI (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.3%, Previous 0.9%. Tracks core producer price changes.
- 8:30 AM BRT – Core PPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 3.5%, Previous 3.7%. Measures annual core producer inflation.
- 8:30 AM BRT – PPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 3.3%, Previous 3.3%. Gauges overall producer price trends.
- 8:30 AM BRT – PPI (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.3%, Previous 0.9%. Tracks monthly producer prices.
- 10:00 AM BRT – Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.2%, Previous 0.1%. Measures inventory levels, signaling supply chain trends.
- 10:00 AM BRT – Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.3%. Reflects wholesale demand.
- 10:30 AM BRT – Crude Oil Inventories: Actual TBD, Consensus -1.900M, Previous 2.415M. Tracks U.S. oil stock changes, impacting global prices.
- 1:00 PM BRT – 10-Year Note Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 4.255%. Influences bond yields and capital flows.
- 1:00 PM BRT – Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3): Actual TBD, Consensus 3.0%, Previous 3.0%. Provides real-time GDP growth estimates.
Implication: U.S. PPI and inventory data will shape expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts (87% odds for September), influencing commodity demand for Brazil’s oil and ag exports. Strong data could bolster Petrobras, while weak figures may exacerbate tariff-related pressures.
Europe (Collective GDP of Key Economies: Germany, UK, France, etc.)
- 3:00 AM BRT – Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul): Actual 2.5%, Consensus TBD, Previous 1.9%. Signals manufacturing trends.
- 5:58 AM BRT – Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.1%, Previous 0.2%. Tracks monthly output.
- 5:58 AM BRT – Italian Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -0.9%. Measures annual industrial trends.
- 5:10 AM BRT – Italian 12-Month BOT Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 2.012%. Gauges short-term borrowing costs.
- 6:00 AM BRT – ECOFIN Meetings: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Discusses Eurozone fiscal policies.
- 8:00 AM BRT – German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Provides ECB policy insights.
Implication: European industrial data and ECB signals will influence demand for Brazil’s steel and soybean exports. Weak production or hawkish ECB rhetoric could curb export revenues amid U.S. tariffs.
Other Countries
Mexico (11th Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$2.00 trillion)
- 8:00 AM BRT – PPI (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -0.50%. Tracks monthly producer prices.
- 8:00 AM BRT – PPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 3.80%. Measures annual producer inflation.
- 11:00 AM BRT – Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (MoM) (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 53.15. Gauges consumer confidence.
Implication: Mexican PPI and consumer sentiment will affect Mercosur trade and demand for Brazil’s ag exports. Stable data could support the peso-real pair.
Norway
- 2:00 AM BRT – Core CPI YTD (Aug): Actual 3.1%, Consensus 3.1%, Previous 3.1%. Tracks year-to-date core inflation.
- 2:00 AM BRT – Core Inflation (MoM) (Aug): Actual -0.7%, Consensus -0.7%, Previous 0.8%. Measures monthly core inflation.
- 2:00 AM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Aug): Actual -0.6%, Consensus -0.6%, Previous 0.8%. Tracks monthly consumer prices.
- 2:00 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual 3.5%, Consensus 3.5%, Previous 3.3%. Measures annual inflation.
Implication: Norwegian inflation data may pressure energy prices, impacting Brazil’s oil sector valuations.
Switzerland
- 7:45 AM BRT – SNB Vice Chairman Schlegel Speaks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Provides monetary policy signals.
Implication: Swiss signals could influence safe-haven flows, indirectly affecting the real.
Japan (3rd Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$4.10 trillion)
- 7:50 PM BRT – PPI (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus -0.1%, Previous 0.2%. Tracks monthly producer prices.
- 7:50 PM BRT – PPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 2.7%, Previous 2.6%. Measures annual producer inflation.
Implication: Japanese PPI could signal manufacturing demand, aiding Brazil’s steel exports if robust.
Australia
- 9:00 PM BRT – MI Inflation Expectations (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 3.9%. Tracks consumer inflation outlook.
Implication: Australian inflation expectations may signal Asia-Pacific commodity demand, impacting Brazil’s ag exports.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s CPI data will clarify inflationary pressures amid 15% Selic rates and U.S. tariff disruptions, critical for monetary policy and consumer resilience.
U.S. PPI and inventory data will shape Fed rate cut expectations, influencing commodity flows for Brazil’s oil and ag sectors. Mexican and European indicators will drive trade and export demand, while geopolitical risks from U.S. threats and Bolsonaro’s trial amplify market uncertainty.
Banco do Brasil’s farm crisis and auto sector contradictions highlight domestic vulnerabilities, making today’s data pivotal for sentiment and policy outlooks.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
Brazil’s Bovespa index closed nearly flat at 141,618.29 on September 9, 2025, with trading volume at R$18.4 billion, reflecting cautious sentiment ahead of today’s CPI data and escalating U.S.-Brazil tensions over Bolsonaro’s trial.
Profit-taking in large caps like Raízen and Cosan offset gains in Petrobras, supported by rising global oil prices. Vale’s shares wavered due to uncertain iron ore demand from China.
Official data confirmed manufacturing’s ongoing struggles, with August industrial output down 0.8% due to high borrowing costs and weak demand. The auto sector showed mixed signals, with production up 2.5% but sales down 4.1%, highlighting consumer weakness.
The Focus Report’s lowered 2025 GDP forecast to 2.16% added to bearish sentiment. Technical analysis shows the Ibovespa testing support at 141,000, with RSI at 56 indicating neutral momentum.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
Wall Street posted modest gains as investors awaited key inflation and inventory data. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 6,512.45, the Dow Jones gained 0.4% to 45,696.75, the Nasdaq climbed 0.6% to 21,929.50, and the Russell 2000 added 0.3% to 2,402.07.
Gains were driven by tech and consumer discretionary sectors, with markets focused on upcoming PPI and Fed rate cut signals. Treasury yields dipped slightly, supporting sentiment despite tariff pressures on Brazilian exports.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC rose 0.5% to 60,950, sustaining momentum from institutional buying and stable central bank signals. The peso held steady at 18.60 per dollar, supported by fiscal clarity and strong U.S. export demand.
Industrial and financial stocks led gains, though volatility remained low with USDMXN trading between 18.55-18.65. Today’s PPI data will further clarify trade dynamics.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
The S&P Merval fell 10.8% to 1,546,123.45, hit by political uncertainty following setbacks for President Milei’s coalition.
The peso weakened to ARS 1,420 per dollar (blue at 1,390), with financials and energy stocks leading losses. Country risk rose to 920 bps, signaling capital flight. Technicals show oversold conditions with RSI below 30.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
The COLCAP gained 0.3% to 1,876.70, consolidating after a 40% annual rally, with the peso steady at 3,925 per dollar.
Institutional flows and a 9.25% policy rate supported gains in Grupo Argos and Nutresa. Inflation at 5.10% suggests stable rates, with technicals pointing to upside potential at 1,900.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
The IPSA dropped 1.1% to 8,989.29, pressured by global headwinds and profit-taking in banking and mining.
The peso weakened to 972.50 per dollar, with copper prices flat at $4.52/lb offering little support. A likely 25 bps rate cut to 4.50% looms, with technicals showing RSI cooling from overbought levels.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real closed little changed at 5.420 per dollar on September 9, 2025, reflecting caution amid U.S. tariff threats and Bolsonaro’s trial. The Central Bank plans to roll over 40,000 FX swaps to stabilize the currency.
The DXY fell 0.4% to 97.13 on weaker U.S. fundamentals, with the Focus survey projecting a year-end rate at R$5.55. Technicals show RSI at 46, with support at 5.39 and resistance at 5.43-5.48. Geopolitical risks and U.S. trade barriers limit upside.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin held steady above $111,000 at $111,237 on September 9, 2025, up 0.8%, with a market cap of $3.90 trillion and 57% dominance.
Fed rate cut expectations (87% for September) supported sentiment, though Brazil’s fintech sector remains cautious. Technicals show consolidation at $111,000-$112,000, with RSI at 48. U.S. PPI data today will influence crypto flows.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s commodity-driven economy faces headwinds from 15% Selic rates, U.S. tariffs, and geopolitical risks from the Bolsonaro trial crisis.
Banco do Brasil’s reliance on state aid to counter a farm crisis, driven by falling soy and corn prices and rising rural debt, underscores agricultural vulnerabilities.
The auto sector’s August data—production up 2.5% but sales down 4.1%—reflects high interest rates stifling demand. Manufacturing output fell 0.8% in August, signaling industrial strain.
Brava Energia faces risks after its consortium partner defaulted on Papa-Terra field payments, threatening output stability. Meanwhile, Mubadala’s acquisition of Zamp, uniting Burger King and Starbucks under one entity, marks a fast-food sector shakeup as Zamp exits B3.
Today’s CPI (8:00 AM BRT), U.S. PPI (8:30 AM BRT), and Mexican PPI (8:00 AM BRT) will shape outlooks for energy, industrial, and consumer sectors. High rates and tariffs pressure growth, but oil and aviation resilience offer some stability.
Key Developments
Banco do Brasil’s Farm Crisis: Banco do Brasil seeks government support to manage rising rural debt and falling commodity prices, with soy and corn prices down 10% and 8% year-to-date, risking agribusiness defaults.
Auto Sector Contradictions: August auto production rose 2.5% due to export demand, but sales fell 4.1% as high interest rates curbed domestic consumption, pressuring manufacturers like Volkswagen and GM.
Manufacturing Struggles: Official data show a 0.8% drop in August industrial output, driven by high borrowing costs and weak consumer demand, impacting steel and machinery sectors.
Brava Energia’s Challenges: A partner’s default on Papa-Terra field payments threatens Brava Energia’s output, with potential losses of 10,000 boe/d, raising financial and operational risks.
Fast Food Consolidation: Mubadala’s acquisition of Zamp, merging Burger King and Starbucks, strengthens its foothold in Brazil’s fast-food market, with Zamp delisting from B3 to streamline operations.
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+2.44%
177,547.57
+2.44%
67,298.78
+0.88%
11,009.22
+0.50%
3,379,771
+2.98%
2,297.00
-0.19%
57,575.02
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 177,547.57 | +2.44% | +32.46% | 173,325.65 | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.05 | -0.01% | -9.16% | 5.05 | 5.06 | 5.05 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.78 | -0.36% | -11.45% | 5.80 | 5.78 | 5.77 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 96.09 | +2.15% | +40.26% | 94.07 | 96.47 | 94.88 | 3,205 |
| WTI | 88.26 | +1.65% | +35.26% | 86.83 | 88.67 | 87.32 | 31,434 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.76% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,126 | -0.51% | +21.55% | 4,147 | 4,144 | 4,075 | 24,956 |
| SILVER | 60.00 | -0.03% | +52.76% | 60.02 | 60.36 | 59.05 | 4,003 |
| LITHIUM | 69.00 | -0.12% | +58.73% | 69.08 | 69.65 | 68.95 | 261,058 |
| SOY | 1,242 | +0.69% | +23.44% | 1,233 | 1,245 | 1,236 | 11,115 |
| CORN | 485.00 | +4.98% | +21.71% | 462.00 | 486.00 | 483.00 | 16,508 |
| WHEAT | 703.50 | -0.32% | +30.16% | 705.75 | 708.50 | 702.25 | 4,168 |
| COFFEE | 318.05 | -4.19% | +5.54% | 331.95 | 324.60 | 313.35 | — |
| SUGAR | 14.75 | -0.87% | -9.17% | 14.88 | 14.94 | 14.67 | — |
| ORANGE JUICE | 147.50 | +2.57% | -56.17% | 143.80 | 150.50 | 140.55 | — |
| COTTON | 81.36 | +3.04% | +22.13% | 78.96 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 12,672 |
| BEEF | 219.20 | -3.30% | -3.45% | 226.68 | 222.55 | 218.83 | 22,518 |
| CATTLE | 336.15 | -3.83% | +1.40% | 349.55 | 344.00 | 335.00 | 11,864 |
| COCOA | 5,353 | -4.53% | -36.58% | 5,607 | 5,534 | 5,240 | — |
| PETR4 | 42.58 | +2.21% | +35.82% | 41.66 | 42.58 | — | — |
| VALE3 | 75.10 | +3.77% | +30.61% | 72.37 | 75.10 | — | — |
| SUZB3 | 42.66 | +2.47% | -16.78% | 41.63 | 42.69 | 41.65 | 4,974,100 |
| KLABIN | 17.93 | +1.93% | -2.74% | 17.59 | 18.00 | 17.64 | 4,305,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.96 | +1.53% | -12.41% | 13.75 | 14.01 | 13.71 | 4,319,100 |
| ABEV3 | 16.13 | +2.09% | +20.37% | 15.80 | 16.14 | 15.74 | 28,786,900 |
| ITUB4 | 42.90 | +0.87% | +26.25% | 42.53 | 42.90 | — | — |
| BBDC4 | 18.97 | +2.26% | +21.37% | 18.55 | 18.97 | — | — |
| BBAS3 | 21.09 | +1.01% | +6.03% | 20.88 | 21.09 | — | — |
| B3SA3 | 15.90 | +4.81% | +21.65% | 15.17 | 15.90 | — | — |
| WEGE3 | 46.74 | +10.05% | +13.12% | 42.47 | 47.06 | 44.80 | 34,056,700 |
| PRIO3 | 59.77 | +2.73% | +40.37% | 58.18 | 59.77 | — | — |
| RENT3 | 37.14 | +1.61% | +3.74% | 36.55 | 37.57 | 36.42 | 16,101,400 |
| AZZA3 | 17.81 | +1.89% | -50.51% | 17.48 | 17.81 | 17.06 | 1,753,800 |
| CSNA3 | 5.38 | +6.32% | -37.15% | 5.06 | 5.38 | — | — |
| GGBR4 | 24.06 | +2.43% | +42.28% | 23.49 | 24.06 | — | — |
| ENEV3 | 25.97 | +2.16% | +88.19% | 25.42 | 25.97 | — | — |
| LREN3 | 13.54 | +2.03% | -22.27% | 13.27 | 13.54 | — | — |
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