Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for August 19, 2025
Brazil’s Central Bank released its weekly Focus survey showing inflation forecasts jump below 5% for 2025, now expected to reach 4.95%.
This downward trend marks twelve straight weeks of cuts, a real sign that money experts think price pressures will cool after years of trouble. Next year’s inflation is projected at 4.95%, falling to 4.40% in 2026, then to 4.00% in 2027 and 3.80% by 2028.
These figures suggest Brazil may be nearing the bank’s target range, meaning everyday costs should rise more slowly. That could ease pressure on families who have faced high prices, and make planning easier for companies.
Still, Brazil isn’t coming out ahead on growth. The Focus report shows a flat outlook: GDP should expand by just 2.21% in 2025, then 1.87% in 2026 and 2027, and only 2.00% in 2028.
Compared to places like India or Mexico, these numbers are low. Brazil’s economy seems stuck, held back by weak investment and budget troubles. One reason is that the base interest rate, Selic, remains high—15% projected for 2025, falling to 10% only by 2028.
Political tensions, including President Lula’s alignment with the Centrão coalition, add to investor uncertainty. No major domestic economic events are scheduled today, but global data will significantly influence Brazil’s markets.
Economic Agenda for August 19, 2025
Brazil
- No major events scheduled.
United States
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Building Permits (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 1.390M, Previous 1.393M. Tracks housing construction activity, impacting demand for Brazilian industrial exports.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Building Permits (MoM) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -0.1%. Signals housing sector momentum, influencing global economic sentiment.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Housing Starts (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 1.290M, Previous 1.321M. Measures new residential construction, affecting commodity demand.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Housing Starts (MoM) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 4.6%. Tracks housing construction trends, impacting Brazil’s export markets.
- 8:55 AM EST / 9:55 AM BRT – Redbook (YoY): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 5.7%. Measures retail sales trends, signaling U.S. consumer demand.
- 11:30 AM EST / 12:30 PM BRT – Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3): Actual TBD, Consensus 2.5%, Previous 2.5%. Provides real-time GDP growth estimates, influencing market expectations.
- 2:10 PM EST / 3:10 PM BRT – FOMC Member Bowman Speaks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Offers monetary policy insights, impacting global risk sentiment.
- 4:30 PM EST / 5:30 PM BRT – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 1.500M. Signals oil inventory trends, affecting Brazil’s energy sector.
Eurozone
- 4:00 AM EST / 5:00 AM BRT – Current Account (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus 33.4B, Previous 32.3B. Reflects trade and investment flows, impacting demand for Brazilian exports.
- 4:00 AM EST / 5:00 AM BRT – Current Account n.s.a. (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 1.0B. Provides unadjusted trade balance data, influencing market sentiment.
- 5:30 AM EST / 6:30 AM BRT – German 5-Year Bobl Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 2.280%. Tracks borrowing costs, affecting European market sentiment.
Hong Kong
- 4:30 AM EST / 5:30 AM BRT – Unemployment Rate (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 3.5%. Signals labor market health, impacting Asian demand for Brazilian commodities.
Canada
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Common CPI (YoY) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 2.7%, Previous 2.6%. Tracks inflation trends, affecting Canadian demand for Brazilian exports.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Core CPI (MoM) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.4%, Previous 0.1%. Signals short-term inflation, influencing trade dynamics.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Core CPI (YoY) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 2.7%. Measures annual core inflation, impacting monetary policy expectations.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 1.7%, Previous 1.9%. Tracks overall inflation, affecting trade partner demand.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.3%, Previous 0.1%. Measures monthly inflation changes, influencing market sentiment.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Median CPI (YoY) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 3.1%, Previous 3.1%. Tracks stable inflation metrics, affecting trade dynamics.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Trimmed CPI (YoY) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 3.0%, Previous 3.0%. Measures adjusted inflation, impacting economic expectations.
Japan
- 7:50 PM EST / 8:50 PM BRT – Adjusted Trade Balance: Actual TBD, Consensus -0.07T, Previous -0.24T. Reflects trade dynamics, affecting commodity export demand.
- 7:50 PM EST / 8:50 PM BRT – Core Machinery Orders (MoM) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus -0.4%, Previous -0.6%. Signals industrial investment, impacting Brazilian exports.
- 7:50 PM EST / 8:50 PM BRT – Core Machinery Orders (YoY) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus 5.0%, Previous 4.4%. Tracks annual industrial trends, influencing commodity demand.
- 7:50 PM EST / 8:50 PM BRT – Exports (YoY) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus -2.1%, Previous -0.5%. Measures export growth, impacting global trade dynamics.
- 7:50 PM EST / 8:50 PM BRT – Imports (YoY) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus -10.4%, Previous 0.2%. Tracks import trends, affecting Brazil’s export markets.
- 7:50 PM EST / 8:50 PM BRT – Trade Balance (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 196.2B, Previous 153.1B. Signals trade health, impacting commodity demand.
China
- 9:00 PM EST / 10:00 PM BRT – PBoC Loan Prime Rate (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 3.50%, Previous 3.50%. Influences Chinese liquidity, critical for Brazil’s commodity exports.
- 9:15 PM EST / 10:15 PM BRT – PBoC Loan Prime Rate: Actual TBD, Consensus 3.00%, Previous 3.00%. Further shapes Chinese monetary policy, impacting global markets.
New Zealand
- 10:00 PM EST / 11:00 PM BRT – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision: Actual TBD, Consensus 3.00%, Previous 3.25%. Signals monetary policy direction, affecting commodity demand.
- 10:00 PM EST / 11:00 PM BRT – RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Provides policy insights, influencing market sentiment.
- 10:00 PM EST / 11:00 PM BRT – RBNZ Rate Statement: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Clarifies rate decisions, impacting global risk appetite.
- 11:00 PM EST / 12:00 AM BRT (Aug 20) – RBNZ Press Conference: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Offers further policy clarity, affecting commodity markets.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
Brazil’s main stock index, the Ibovespa, surged 0.72% on August 18, 2025, closing at 137,321.64 points, driven by optimism in the energy sector.
Raízen led gains after news of a potential partnership with Petrobras in ethanol production, signaling investor confidence in Brazil’s biofuel sector.
However, Prio shares dropped sharply after regulators suspended operations at their Peregrino FPSO unit, raising concerns about output risks and compliance hurdles.
Vale also faced pressure as Chinese iron ore contracts weakened, reflecting global commodity market dynamics. The Central Bank’s IBC-Br index fell 0.1% in June versus May, with second-quarter growth at 0.3%, prompting traders to reassess expectations for interest rate cuts.
The Brazilian Real settled higher at R$5.43, reflecting persistent global risk aversion and cautious international capital flows into emerging markets.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
Wall Street held near record levels on August 18, 2025, with mixed performance across indices. The S&P 500 fell less than 0.1% to 6,449.15, after its first loss following three consecutive all-time highs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.1% to 44,911.82, while the Nasdaq composite inched up less than 0.1% to 21,629.77. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 0.3% to 2,294.47.
Investors are focused on upcoming profit reports from major U.S. retailers like Walmart, which could signal consumer spending trends amid a slowing job market and tariff concerns.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
Mexican equities held steady on August 18, 2025, as tourism drove economic growth, supporting market stability.
The IPC Index showed resilience despite global trade uncertainties, with consumer and tourism-related stocks leading gains. The Mexican peso consolidated, reflecting cautious optimism amid global risk aversion and U.S. tariff pressures.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
Colombia’s stock market rallied on August 18, 2025, with the COLCAP Index gaining as energy stocks outperformed, driven by strong oil prices. Construction stocks lagged due to high borrowing costs and slowing demand.
The Colombian peso remained steady, supported by positive energy sector developments and stable U.S. relations. Investors are monitoring U.S. economic data and tariff policies for potential impacts on Colombia’s export-driven sectors.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
Argentina’s Merval Index recovered cautiously on August 18, 2025, after a turbulent drop, gaining modest ground as investors weighed economic reforms and global trade risks.
Currency concerns persisted, with the Argentine peso facing pressure from U.S. tariffs and domestic inflation. Market sentiment remains fragile, with focus on Argentina’s ongoing reforms and their ability to attract foreign investment amidst global uncertainties.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
Chile’s stock market reached record highs on August 18, 2025, with the IPSA Index climbing on strong copper prices and robust exporter performance.
Copper, a key driver of Chile’s economy, supported gains in mining stocks, while export-oriented firms benefited from global demand.
The Chilean peso strengthened, reflecting market confidence, though investors remain cautious of U.S. tariff impacts and global commodity volatility.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian Real settled at R$5.43 on August 18, 2025, driven by global risk aversion and cautious capital flows into emerging markets.
Today’s economic indicators include the Eurozone Current Account, scheduled for 4:00 AM EST / 5:00 AM BRT. U.S. Building Permits and Housing Starts will be released at 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT. Canada’s CPI is also scheduled for 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT.
Later in the day, Japan’s Core Machinery Orders and Trade Balance will be reported at 7:50 PM EST / 8:50 PM BRT. China’s PBoC Loan Prime Rate will follow at 9:00 PM EST / 10:00 PM BRT.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.65%
205,558.53
-0.65%
64,975.08
+0.69%
11,166.65
+0.38%
2,885,034
+0.54%
2,590.34
+0.30%
60,220.93
+0.18%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 205,558.53 | -0.65% | +21.85% | 206,911.89 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
These economic releases are expected to influence currency volatility. In addition, U.S. tariffs and Brazil’s fiscal fragility remain key risks.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin experienced volatility on August 18, 2025, amid global market dynamics and institutional moves.
Today’s U.S. Building Permits and Housing Starts (8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT) and Canada’s CPI (8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT) will shape crypto sentiment, impacting Brazil’s fintech sector.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s commodity-driven economy faces headwinds from the 15% Selic rate, a 76.6% debt-to-GDP ratio, and U.S. tariffs impacting meat, coffee, and biofuel exports. The services sector contracted to a four-year low in July, signaling economic slowdown.
Today’s global indicators, including U.S. Building Permits, Canada’s CPI, Japan’s Core Machinery Orders, and China’s PBoC Loan Prime Rate, will influence demand for Brazil’s agribusiness, energy, and manufacturing sectors.
Factories show cautious recovery but face challenges from trade barriers and slowing global growth in 2025.
Key Developments
Raízen’s Surge: Raízen shares surged on August 18, 2025, after news of a potential partnership with Petrobras in ethanol production, boosting investor confidence in Brazil’s biofuel sector.
Prio’s Setback: Prio shares dropped sharply after regulators suspended operations at their Peregrino FPSO unit, raising concerns about output risks and compliance hurdles in the energy sector.
Vale’s Pressure: Vale faced pressure as Chinese iron ore contracts weakened, reflecting global commodity market dynamics impacting Brazil’s mining sector.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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