Published Thursday, 22 October, 8:00 p.m. ET · Source: B3 stock exchange closing data
Key Facts
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The number. Brazil’s main stock index, the Ibovespa, fell 1.15% to 204,120 points on Thursday.
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The dollar. The dollar rose 0.22% to R$5.038, or about US$0.1985 per real.
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The cause. A global selloff in US tech shares and rising oil, plus caution before Sunday’s runoff.
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The vote. The presidential runoff is Sunday, 25 October; Quaest polling shows a one-point race.
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Prediction markets. Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 75.6% and Lula at 23.5% to win (22 October 2026, 7:37 p.m. ET).
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Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Read our Brazil election 2026 runoff guide →
Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come · Brazil election poll data (CSV)
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.9% · Lula 23.5% (US$192 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 75% · Lula 25%
As of 22 October, 7:20 pm ET (00:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Brazilian shares fell and the real weakened on Thursday as investors worldwide sold risk. The Ibovespa lost 1.15% to 204,120 points at the 5:00 p.m. Brasília close (4:00 p.m. ET), and the dollar rose 0.22% to R$5.038.
The drop followed a rough day on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 fell 1.2% and the Nasdaq about 2.6%, according to InfoMoney and CNN Brasil. Brazil also votes in four days, which kept buyers cautious.
See our guide to the real to dollar for what drives the pair.
What Moved the Market
The Ibovespa had closed at 206,495 points on Wednesday. On Thursday it traded between 203,052 and 206,493, and ended near the low.
Oil climbed on Middle East tensions, with Brent crude above US$110 a barrel, which revived inflation worries. Tech shares fell on renewed doubts about heavy artificial-intelligence spending, which pulled global stocks down.
Miners and Banks Lead Losses
- Vale (mining giant, VALE): down 3.97%.
- CSN and Usiminas (steelmakers): down 5.43% and 4.81%.
- Gerdau (steelmaker): down 3.92%.
- Bradesco (bank): down 2.08%. Itaú Unibanco (ITUB) lost 1.84%.
- Petrobras (state oil company, PBR): up 0.14%, helped by oil.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
-1.15%
204,120.12
-1.15%
69,370.40
-1.25%
10,780.31
-1.88%
3,017,221
—
2,528.42
-1.25%
59,561.23
-4.26%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 204,120.12 | -1.15% | +21.85% | 206,495.23 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
Election Nerves Before the Runoff
Voters choose on Sunday, 25 October between Flávio Bolsonaro, a conservative senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. A Quaest poll gave Bolsonaro 45% and Lula 44%, a gap inside the margin of error.
Investors tend to hedge ahead of close votes, which can lift the dollar and lower local stocks. Our Brazil’s economy overview covers the backdrop, and our election desk tracks the result.
What Prediction Markets Say
- Polymarket, “Brazil Presidential Election”: Flávio Bolsonaro 75.6%, Lula 23.5% (US$192 million traded).
- Polymarket, runoff margin: Bolsonaro by less than 4 points 41.5%, Bolsonaro by 4 to 8 points 30.0%, Lula by less than 4 points 21.5% (US$4.5 million traded).
Prices as of 7:37 p.m. ET, 22 October 2026. Prices are bets, not polls; Kalshi is regulated in the US by the CFTC.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) closed at US$41.85, down 1.6% from US$42.51. Dollar holders of Brazilian shares lost twice: once on prices and once on a weaker real.
Visitors paying in dollars get slightly more reais for each dollar, but swings may continue through the vote. Expats who are paid in reais saw their pay buy slightly less in dollar terms.
What Is Not Known
It is not clear whether the selloff continues once Wall Street reopens on Friday. The runoff result, expected on Sunday evening, will set the next move for the real; the next Brazilian inflation reading, the mid-month IPCA, is due Friday, 23 October.
Sources
InfoMoney, Ibovespa close · CNN Brasil, market summary · B3, Ibovespa · Polymarket, Brazil election · TSE, electoral court
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Brazil’s stock market fall on 22 October?
Global risk aversion hit first, with the S&P 500 down 1.2% and the Nasdaq about 2.6%. Caution before the 25 October presidential runoff and weaker mining and bank shares added to the drop.
How much did the Ibovespa fall?
The Ibovespa lost 1.15% to 204,120 points on Thursday, 22 October 2026. It had closed at 206,495 points the day before.
What is the dollar-to-real rate after the selloff?
The dollar closed at R$5.038, up 0.22%, so one real bought about US$0.1985. Brazilian assets often weaken when investors worldwide cut risk.
When is Brazil’s presidential runoff?
Voters choose between Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula on Sunday, 25 October 2026. The electoral court, the TSE, publishes the official results.