Brazil registers 64% more deaths between January and April than expected for the period

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The CONASS and Vital Strategies panel reports there were over 211,000 deaths more than expected for the first 4 months of the year. The study considers natural deaths, those by Covid-19 and other diseases, but excludes firearm-related deaths and accidents.

In the first 4 months of 2021, Brazil registered 64% more deaths from natural causes than expected, according to a survey released on Monday, May 31, by the National Council of Health Secretaries (CONASS).

The study, conducted by Vital Strategies global health organization, shows that there were 211,847 more deaths than expected between January 1 and April 17 this year – the period analyzed in this report.

Deaths from natural causes include illness-related fatalities, such as Covid-19. In this criterion, deaths by accidents or firearms are not included. In the data analysis, researchers point out that the coronavirus infection is one of the factors responsible for the excess mortality.

In total, 328,665 people were expected to die from natural causes in 109 days, based on the Ministry of Health’s Mortality Information System (SIM) historical data from 2015 to 2019.

The main points of the survey:

Excess deaths were highest in the up to 59-year-old age group: there were 84% more deaths than expected. In the 60+ age group there were 58% more deaths. It was also higher among men than women: the excess among men reached 68%, and among women, 61%.

The Southeast was the region with the highest excess deaths, with 46%, followed by the Northeast, with 19%. The North registered 8% more deaths than expected, the Midwest 9%, and the South 18%.

The state with the highest percentage of excess deaths was Amazonas, with 173% more deaths in the period than expected. The lowest percentage was found in Piauí, with 18% excess deaths.

The data was calculated based on epidemiological weeks (which run from Sunday to the following Saturday). Epidemiological week 13 had the highest excess deaths: from March 28 to April 3, with a 117% excess deaths compared to the period between 2015 and 2019.

Deaths by Covid-19

The CONASS and Vital Strategies Panel does not point out cause of death. Based on the media outlet consortium’s survey, on January 1 this year, Brazil totaled 195,400 confirmed Covid-19 deaths since the start of the Sars-CoV-2 outbreak. By April 17, this figure had reached 371,889 deaths.

In all of last year, excess mortality stood at 22%. In absolute figures, 275,587 excess deaths have been identified.