Brazil’s Paraná Governor Backs Flávio Before 25 October
BRAZIL · POLITICS
Key Facts
- —What happened Paraná governor Ratinho Junior endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro on Saturday, 10 October.
- —His words “Let us walk together for the future of our Brazil,” he wrote.
- —The runoff Flávio Bolsonaro faces President Lula on Sunday, 25 October.
- —The state Paraná has about 11.4 million people and a large farm-export economy.
- —Same party Fellow PSD leader Ronaldo Caiado also backs Flávio, Metrópoles reported.
- —Prediction markets Kalshi gives Flávio Bolsonaro 87% and Lula 13% (11 October, 11:07 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 88% and Kalshi at 87% (Lula: 13% and 13%), as of 11 October, 1:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
The outgoing governor of one of Brazil’s biggest farm states has joined the conservative camp two weeks before the presidential runoff.
Ratinho Junior, the governor of the southern Brazilian state of Paraná, endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro for president on Saturday, 10 October. He announced it in a post on X after talks with Flávio and with São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas.
It adds a state leader to the conservative senator’s camp before the 25 October runoff against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. For US investors, it reinforces a race that markets and betting platforms already see as Flávio’s to lose.
What Ratinho Junior Said
The governor posted his message on X at 5:57 p.m. Brasília time on Saturday.
“I spoke with Flávio Bolsonaro and with Governor Tarcísio. Let us walk together for the future of our Brazil!” he wrote.
He attached a Folha de S.Paulo column whose headline says Flávio phoned him and secured his support.
The Brasília news site Metrópoles and the Curitiba daily Gazeta do Povo reported the move on Saturday evening. Metrópoles noted he was courted this year as a presidential candidate but chose not to run.
Who Ratinho Junior Is and Why Paraná Matters
Carlos Massa Ratinho Junior has governed Paraná since 1 January 2019. He belongs to the Social Democratic Party (PSD), a centre-right party chaired nationally by Gilberto Kassab.
His term ends on 6 January 2027, when Sergio Moro takes over the state.
Moro, the former judge who led the Car Wash corruption trials, won the governorship on 4 October.
Paraná has about 11.4 million people, according to the 2022 census, roughly the population of Ohio. It is a major exporter of soybeans, corn and chicken, sold in markets where US farmers also compete.
The governor said on Friday that Paraná exported US$18.7 billion of goods from January to September. That is 5.5% more than in the same period of 2025, he wrote.
How the Endorsement Fits the Runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator for the conservative Liberal Party (PL), is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Lula leads the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) and is seeking another term.
Metrópoles reported that Ronaldo Caiado, the PSD’s candidate who was eliminated in the 4 October first round, has also backed Flávio. The PSD itself has declared neutrality in the runoff, Gazeta do Povo reported.
On the same Saturday, Lula said in the northeast that his opponents “kiss the US flag,” the news site Poder360 reported. He also challenged Flávio to explain a proposed BRL 250 billion (about US$50 billion) spending cut.
What It Means for You
US investors hold Brazil through New York-listed shares such as Petrobras, Vale and Itaú, and through Brazil exchange-traded funds. Poder360 reported that the dollar and Brazil’s stock market posted record weekly moves after the first round.
Each new endorsement strengthens expectations of a change in government when the next president takes office on 5 January 2027.
Conversions use the open.er-api.com rate of 11 October 2026, BRL 5.01 per US dollar.
What Prediction Markets Say
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 87.9% · Lula 12.5% (US$180 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 87% · Lula 13%
As of 11 October, 1:20 pm ET (18:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
On Kalshi, which US regulators at the CFTC oversee, bets gave Flávio 87% and Lula 13% at 11:07 a.m. ET on Sunday. On Polymarket, with about US$180 million traded on the election, Lula stood at 12.5% at 12:18 p.m. ET.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether the PSD will drop its neutrality and formally back Flávio.
It is also unclear whether Ratinho Junior will campaign on the streets or was offered any role.
What Comes Next
Monday, 12 October, is a national holiday in Brazil, and both campaigns continue touring.
Brazilians vote in the runoff on Sunday, 25 October. An endorsement does not transfer votes automatically, and the result depends on turnout in the big states.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Ratinho Junior?
Ratinho Junior is the governor of the southern Brazilian state of Paraná and a member of the centre-right PSD. He has led the state since 2019.
When did Ratinho Junior endorse Flávio Bolsonaro?
He announced his support in a post on X on Saturday, 10 October. He said he had spoken with Flávio and with São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas.
When is Brazil’s presidential runoff?
The runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula is on Sunday, 25 October. The winner takes office on 5 January 2027.
Why does this matter to US investors?
Brazilian shares and the real have moved sharply on expectations of a Flávio win. Each endorsement adds to that expectation before the vote.
Sources: Ratinho Junior, post on X, 10 October 2026; Ratinho Junior, post on Paraná exports, 9 October 2026; Ratinho Junior, post on Sergio Moro, 5 October 2026; Metrópoles; Gazeta do Povo; Poder360; Poder360 (all accessed 11 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief