The four economic alarm bells ringing in Argentina this week

It was a week of bad news for the Argentine economy, events that worsened the already deteriorated economic outlook ahead of this year’s presidential elections.

Four indicators showed warning signs this week: construction, manufacturing, soybean production, and inflation in the Federal Capital.

Meanwhile, economists who participated in the latest Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM) of the Central Bank predicted two consecutive quarterly contractions of the GDP.

CONSTRUCTION

According to government data released Wednesday, construction activity declined for the fifth consecutive month in December.

On an annual basis, activity also fell 10.6%, the steepest one-month decline since 2020. On the other hand, construction employment, a lagging indicator, continued to show gains.

SOYBEAN OUTLOOK

Argentine farmers will harvest just 34.5 million tonnes of soybeans during the second-quarter harvest, the lowest level since 2009, the Rosario Stock Exchange reported in a monthly report.

That’s down 7% from January and the lowest estimate yet.

INDUSTRY

According to data released Wednesday, Argentina’s industrial production index retreated in December for the fourth time in six months.

About 10% of factory employers intend to reduce headcount in the next three months, down from 6% last June, while those intending to hire more employees fell from 15% to 10% over the same period.

Most plan to make no changes.

INFLATION IN THE CAPITAL

Prices rose 7.3% in the City of Buenos Aires last month, almost assuring that inflation nationwide also accelerated.

City figures released Monday showed prices rose 99.4% in the capital from a year earlier.

National inflation data will be released on February 14.

With information from Bloomberg