Brazil Poll Gives Flávio Bolsonaro 51.8% Over Lula
BRAZIL · POLITICS
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, holds its presidential runoff on 25 October.
- What happened Futura poll gives Flávio Bolsonaro 51.8% of valid votes, Lula 48.2%.
- The method 2,000 voters, phone interviews, 7 to 10 October, electoral court protocol BR-00650/2026.
- Still open Exame calls the 3.6-point gap a technical tie within the margin.
- Prediction markets Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 87.0% for Flávio (13 October, 11:07 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 86% and Kalshi at 87% (Lula: 14% and 14%), as of 13 October, 2:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
A new Futura poll puts conservative senator Flávio Bolsonaro 3.6 points ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in valid votes. The race for Brazil’s 25 October runoff still sits within the survey’s margin of error.
Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative senator whose family is allied with US President Donald Trump, leads Brazil’s runoff in a fresh poll. Futura Inteligência gives him 51.8% of valid votes against 48.2% for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The survey was released on Tuesday, 13 October, twelve days before the runoff on Sunday, 25 October. For US investors, the race decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy and sets Brazil’s tone toward Washington.
What the Futura Poll Shows
Futura interviewed 2,000 voters aged 16 and over by telephone between Wednesday, 7 October, and Saturday, 10 October. The poll uses computer-assisted telephone interviews and has a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points at 95% confidence.
It is registered with the Superior Electoral Court, Brazil’s election authority known as the TSE, under protocol BR-00650/2026. Exame, a São Paulo business magazine, and Revista Oeste, a conservative news magazine, reported the same figures and registration number.
Counting all answers, Flávio has 50% and Lula 46.6%, with 1.7% planning a blank or spoiled ballot and 1.7% undecided. The headline split of 51.8% to 48.2% excludes those groups, which is how Brazilian pollsters report valid votes.
Exame describes the gap as a technical tie at the edge of the statistical margin. The 3.6-point lead is smaller than the 4.4-point swing possible if both numbers move to opposite ends of the margin.
Where Each Candidate Leads
The regional split follows a familiar pattern, with Lula on 60.1% in the Northeast, his traditional stronghold. Flávio leads with 65.6% in the South, 59.6% in the Centre-West and 51.9% in the Southeast, the most populous region.
Women favour Lula by 52.1% to 43.5%, while men back Flávio with 57.3%. Among voters aged 16 to 24, the race is level, with Flávio on 47.8% and Lula on 47.3%.
Rejection, the share who would never vote for a candidate, is 48.6% for Lula and 45.4% for Flávio. In the spontaneous question, where no names are read out, Flávio has 47.7% and Lula 46.1%.
Asked about political identity, 30.9% said they side with Lula and 24.6% with Bolsonaro. Another 24.6% described themselves as divided or tired of the dispute between the two camps.
Who the Candidates Are
Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator for Rio de Janeiro from the Liberal Party, or PL, the main conservative party in Brazil. He replaced his father as the right’s candidate after Jair Bolsonaro was barred from running by the electoral court.
Lula, 80, of the left-wing Workers’ Party, or PT, seeks a fourth term after winning in 2002, 2006 and 2022. A Flávio win would end Lula’s third term when the new president takes office in January 2027.
What It Means for US Readers
US funds hold Brazilian assets through New York-listed shares such as Petrobras, Vale and Itaú Unibanco. Runoff polls are closely watched by holders of those stocks and of the Brazilian real in the final weeks.
Relations with Washington are at stake, since the Trump administration imposed tariffs of up to 50% on Brazilian goods in 2025. That order cited the criminal case against Jair Bolsonaro, which makes the family name central to US-Brazil ties.
Brazilians registered to vote in the United States cast ballots at polling stations run by their consulates on 25 October. Voters abroad choose only the president, so the runoff is their only race this month.
What Prediction Markets Say
Bettors on Polymarket gave Flávio an 86.5% chance and Lula 12.5% on 13 October at 11:07 a.m. ET. More than US$180 million has been traded on that market since it opened.
Kalshi, regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, priced Flávio at 87.0% and Lula at 13.0%. Those bets imply a wider edge than the poll, which shows a race within its margin of error.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 86.3% · Lula 13.5% (US$181 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 87% · Lula 14%
As of 13 October, 2:20 pm ET (19:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The full Futura report, including weighting tables and question order, could not be checked against the electoral court filing. Exame says the survey was commissioned by 100% Cidades, a detail Revista Oeste did not report.
Revista Oeste reports that Futura switched its education weighting to the national household survey run by IBGE, the statistics agency. It is not known how much that change affects comparisons with earlier Futura polls.
Other polls released this week may show different margins, and no single survey predicts the outcome. Turnout could also decide a race this close, even though voting is compulsory for most adults.
What Comes Next
Further runoff polls from other firms are due before the vote on Sunday, 25 October. Polls close at 17:00 Brasília time, and the electoral court publishes results as the electronic count comes in.
A lead in one poll does not mean the outcome is settled. The winner takes office in January 2027 for a four-year term.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is ahead in Brazil’s runoff according to the Futura poll?
Flávio Bolsonaro has 51.8% of valid votes and Lula has 48.2%. Exame describes the gap as a technical tie within the margin of error.
How was the Futura poll conducted?
Futura Inteligência interviewed 2,000 voters by telephone from 7 to 10 October. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points at 95% confidence.
What are valid votes in a Brazilian poll?
Valid votes exclude blank ballots, spoiled ballots and undecided voters. Brazil’s electoral court also counts only valid votes when it declares a winner.
When is Brazil’s presidential runoff?
The runoff is on Sunday, 25 October 2026. Polls close at 17:00 Brasília time, and official results follow the same evening.
Why does the Brazil runoff matter to the United States?
Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy and a major US trading partner. The result will shape trade talks, tariffs and the value of New York-listed Brazilian shares.
Sources: Exame, Futura Inteligência poll (TSE protocol BR-00650/2026); Revista Oeste, Futura poll (all accessed 13 October 2026).
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief