Flávio Bolsonaro Texts Show Vorcaro Visit on 20 August
POLITICS · BRAZIL
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, holds a presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and the conservative senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- —Why it matters Flávio leads the betting markets. The report ties him more closely to Daniel Vorcaro, the jailed former owner of the collapsed Banco Master.
- —Why now O Globo published the messages on Sunday 11 October, two weeks before the vote. Flávio has said he dealt with Vorcaro only over funding for a film.
- —What happened Messages police recovered from Vorcaro’s phone indicate Flávio went to the banker’s Brasília home on Wednesday 20 August 2025, the day a law backing the bank’s sale was signed.
- —What it means for you For US holders of Brazilian stocks and ADRs, the runoff is the main political risk. Flávio’s betting odds slipped about two points over the past day.
- —Still open Whether Flávio actually arrived, what was discussed and whether police will ask him about the meeting. He did not answer O Globo.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 86% chance of winning the presidency and Lula 12.5% (12 October, 2:12 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 86% and Kalshi at 87% (Lula: 13% and 13%), as of 12 October, 3:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Police-recovered messages from jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro’s phone indicate Brazil’s presidential frontrunner Flávio Bolsonaro visited his Brasília home on 20 August 2025. That was the day the capital’s governor signed a law backing the sale of Vorcaro’s Banco Master to the state-controlled bank BRB. The Vorcaro visit matters abroad because Flávio leads the race for Sunday 25 October. The Master collapse has drawn in Congress, the courts and now the campaign.
The newspaper O Globo revealed the messages in its Lauro Jardim column on Sunday 11 October. Flávio has said publicly that he spoke to Vorcaro only about financing a film on his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro.
Flávio, 45, is a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the candidate of the conservative Liberal Party (PL). He faces President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT), who is seeking a fourth term.
What the Messages Show
According to O Globo, the WhatsApp exchange recovered by the police begins on 20 August with an invitation from Vorcaro: “21 pode ser” (“9 p.m. works”). Flávio replied “Blz”, slang for “fine”. At 9:47 p.m., the senator wrote that he was “on the way”.
About an hour and a half earlier, senator Ciro Nogueira sent Vorcaro a voice message. Nogueira, of the Progressistas (PP), was Jair Bolsonaro’s chief of staff. He said he was at an awards ceremony held by the Congresso em Foco news site.
“Even Flávio is here, but he has already got his award, I think he will go ahead,” Nogueira said, according to the audio obtained by the column. He added that he would arrive when the ceremony ended.
Vorcaro later told his fiancée, Martha Graeff, that he was “at home in a meeting”, the newspaper reported. Flávio and Nogueira did not respond to O Globo’s requests for comment.
Hugo Motta Was Also Invited
The messages also show Vorcaro inviting Hugo Motta, the speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, of the Republicanos party. At 6:15 p.m., the banker wrote: “Brother, if you can make it later, let’s have a drink together.”
At 10:48 p.m., Motta asked where he was. Vorcaro answered that he was at home (“Casa!”) and urged him to come if he could. The two then spoke by phone for 13 seconds. Whether Motta went to the house has not been confirmed.
Motta’s office neither confirmed nor denied his presence. In a statement, it said contact with business leaders is “inherent” to any lawmaker’s work and that all his contacts with the private sector were guided by probity.
Why the Date Matters
BRB, or Banco de Brasília, is controlled by the government of the Federal District, the federal capital. On 20 August 2025, then governor Ibaneis Rocha of the centrist MDB signed the local legislature’s approval of BRB’s planned purchase of Banco Master.
The central bank rejected that deal two weeks later. In November 2025, it ordered Banco Master’s liquidation, and police arrested Vorcaro. He is in custody again. His defence renewed a request for his release on Wednesday 7 October, g1 reported. Police reports on how BRB pursued the deal were covered in Brazil Police Say Ex-Governor Steered BRB in 4 Ways.
Flávio has acknowledged one visit to Vorcaro’s house, O Antagonista reported. It came in late November 2025, after the banker’s arrest, to end talks on funding the Bolsonaro biopic “Dark Horse”. The Vorcaro visit in the new messages came months earlier, before the bank failed, and the exchange does not mention the film.
On Sunday, Flávio told supporters in São Paulo he had suffered “pre-judgement” over his requests to Vorcaro for film money, Valor Econômico reported. He again denied wrongdoing and called it a private relationship. He is among those investigated by the Federal Police over the film’s financing, in an inquiry authorised by Supreme Court Justice André Mendonça.
The case also has a US thread. The bank’s liquidator is pursuing Vorcaro-linked property in the United States, as reported in Banco Master Liquidator Sues for 3 US Mansions.
What It Means for You
For investors in Brazilian stocks, bonds and ADRs, the runoff is the biggest near-term political event. Markets have so far treated a Flávio win as likely, and the betting odds moved only modestly after the Vorcaro visit report.
The story could still shape the last two weeks of the campaign. Lula’s team has already tried to tie Flávio to the Master case in television ads, and courts have ruled on several of those ads. Expect more legal fights over campaign material.
For now there is no charge against Flávio over the meeting, and he is presumed innocent. A report of a visit is not evidence of a crime.
What Is Not Known
The messages show Flávio saying he was on his way, but not what happened at the house or how long he stayed. It is not known what was discussed, or whether the BRB deal came up.
It is also not known whether police plan to question Flávio, Nogueira or Motta about the evening. Flávio did not answer O Globo, and no statement from him on the Vorcaro visit itself was found by early Monday.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Monday 12 October at 2:12 a.m. ET, Polymarket bets put Flávio Bolsonaro at 86% and Lula at 12.5%. More than US$19 million has traded on the Flávio contract, and more than US$180 million on the whole election market.
Flávio’s price fell about two points over the past day but is roughly four points higher than a week ago. These are bets, not polls.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 86% · Lula 12.5% (US$180 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 87% · Lula 13%
As of 12 October, 3:20 am ET (08:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Flávio Bolsonaro meet Daniel Vorcaro on 20 August 2025?
Messages recovered by the Federal Police and published by O Globo indicate Flávio was invited to Vorcaro’s Brasília home that night and wrote at 9:47 p.m. that he was on his way. He has not commented.
Why does the date matter?
On 20 August 2025, the Federal District governor signed the law backing the state bank BRB’s purchase of Banco Master. The central bank later rejected the deal and liquidated Master.
Is Flávio Bolsonaro charged in the Banco Master case?
No. He is under police investigation over the funding of the film Dark Horse and denies wrongdoing. There is no charge over the meeting.
Sources: O Globo (Lauro Jardim); O Antagonista; Revista Fórum; Valor Econômico; g1.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief