Brazil could be one of the new destinations for Russian oil exports

About half of Russia’s oil exports could find new markets once the European Union’s ban on Russian supplies takes effect, according to energy data firm Kpler.

Some Middle Eastern countries, as well as Brazil, Indonesia, Pakistan, South Africa, and Sri Lanka, could buy up to 1 million barrels per day from Russia next winter, Kpler said in a research report.

The European Union continues to buy some Russian oil, but by the end of the year, most imports of Urals crude will be banned.

A blockade on petroleum products will begin next February.

The Russian oil industry, which accounts for about 10 percent of global production and is a primary source of revenue for the Kremlin, is already under significant sanctions following the military operation in Ukraine.

This could reduce Russian oil production by nearly 2 million barrels per day compared to pre-war levels unless flows are redistributed differently, the International Energy Agency estimates.

Russian companies have already diverted supplies to Asia, mainly India and China, as some European buyers voluntarily give up their oil.

This has come at a price, with Urals trading at a steep discount to global benchmarks.

A redistribution of global crude flows could partially displace exports from other OPEC+ members.

The Middle East, which could receive up to 500,000 barrels per day of Russian crude this winter, could divert oil previously used domestically to export markets, according to Kpler.

With information from Bloomberg