Brazil Bolsonaro Allies Warn Supreme Court on 6 October
BRAZIL · POLITICS
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, with more than 210 million people, is Latin America’s largest economy and votes in a runoff on 25 October.
- —The background Washington sanctioned Justice Alexandre de Moraes over the Bolsonaro case in July 2025, lifting the sanctions in December.
- —Why now Jair Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party won 19 Senate seats on 4 October and will hold 28 of 81 from 2027.
- —What happened On Tuesday, 6 October, Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign chief told the court’s president the Senate “will not stay silent.”
- —The numbers Removing a justice takes two-thirds of the Senate, or 54 votes; one study counts 54 senators open to proceedings.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket bets give a 17% chance that Moraes leaves the court by 31 December (7 October, 2:15 a.m. ET).
- —What it means for you A Senate move against Moraes would revive a dispute the Trump administration escalated with tariffs and sanctions.
- —Still open Whether any impeachment request advances, and who will preside over the Senate from February 2027.
Two days after his party won the largest Senate bloc, Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign chief took a warning to Brazil’s top court.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign chief met the head of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) in Brasília on Tuesday, 6 October. Senator Rogério Marinho told court president Edson Fachin that the Senate “will not stay silent” on impeachable offences by justices.
The warning matters beyond Brazil because the court’s best-known justice, Alexandre de Moraes, was sanctioned by Washington in 2025. The White House also cited his handling of the Bolsonaro case when it imposed an extra 40% tariff on Brazilian goods.
What Marinho Told the Court
Marinho, a senator for Rio Grande do Norte, leads the opposition in the Senate and runs Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign. Flávio, eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, faces President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 25 October.
In the first round, Flávio won 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%, the electoral court (TSE) reported. Flávio’s Liberal Party (PL) is the conservative party Jair Bolsonaro joined in 2021.
“When a Supreme Court justice commits a crime of responsibility, the Senate will not stay silent,” Marinho said, according to CNN Brasil. “Today it has been silent,” he added, using Brazil’s legal term for an impeachable offence.
He also promised no “spirit of revenge” against the court, Estadão reported via InfoMoney. He criticised Moraes and Justice Flávio Dino, a former Lula minister, and court rulings on elections in Rio de Janeiro and Roraima.
Fachin later met Teresa Leitão, a senator for Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT). No statement from Fachin on either meeting was reported.
How a Supreme Court Impeachment Works
Brazil’s Constitution lets the Senate try STF justices for crimes of responsibility. Under a 1950 law, any citizen may file a complaint, and conviction means loss of office.
A Supreme Court impeachment needs two-thirds of the Senate, or 54 of 81 votes, Poder360 reports. It adds that a December 2025 ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes set the same bar for opening a case.
The Senate president decides whether complaints go ahead. Marinho says the current one, Davi Alcolumbre of the centrist União Brasil party, has failed to act on them.
Estadão reports that Marinho is seen as a contender for that post in 2027. It would make him the gatekeeper for every request.
The New Senate Arithmetic
Sunday’s vote filled 54 of 81 Senate seats, and the PL won 19, said Agência Brasil, the state news agency. From 2027 the PL will hold 28 seats, against nine for Lula’s PT.
A study by the group Ranking dos Políticos, cited by Poder360, counts 54 senators from 2027 who favour proceedings against justices. It notes that favouring proceedings does not mean voting to convict.
Party sources quoted in a political column put the PL’s firm votes against Moraes at 49, a figure that cannot be verified.
What It Means for You
The US Treasury sanctioned Moraes under the Global Magnitsky programme on 30 July 2025. It removed him and his wife from the list on 12 December 2025.
The same day, a White House order imposing an extra 40% tariff accused Moraes of secret orders to US social media firms. The court’s rulings on online content therefore matter to US platforms in Brazil.
For holders of Brazilian ETFs and New York-listed shares such as Petrobras, Vale and Itaú, a Congress-court clash is a governance risk. It would also put the court back at the centre of US–Brazil relations.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, the contract “Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?” traded at about 17% early on 7 October. That price, taken at 2:15 a.m. ET, was down 1.5 points in a day but up 2.5 points in a week.
More than US$85,000 has been bet on it, and it resolves Yes if Moraes leaves the court for any period before 2027. The new Senate only sits from 2027.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
No comment from Fachin or the court was reported, and Marinho named no specific case. It is unclear whether the December 2025 threshold ruling will hold, or who will lead the new Senate.
Marinho was taken to a Brasília hospital on Tuesday evening after feeling unwell, CNN Brasil reported. No details of his condition had been released by Wednesday morning.
What Comes Next
The runoff takes place on Sunday, 25 October, and the new Senate elects its president in February 2027. Marinho’s words do not open any case against a justice.
They also do not mean a removal vote is imminent. Any case would first need the approval of the Senate president.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court?
The Supreme Federal Court (STF) is Brazil’s highest court for constitutional cases and has 11 seats. It also tries senior officials, which is why it handled the coup case against Jair Bolsonaro.
Can Brazil’s Senate remove a Supreme Court justice?
Yes, for crimes of responsibility, which are impeachable offences under a 1950 law. Conviction needs a two-thirds vote, and the Senate president decides whether a complaint goes forward.
Who is Alexandre de Moraes?
Moraes is the STF justice who led the coup case against Jair Bolsonaro, who received 27 years and three months. The US Treasury sanctioned Moraes in July 2025 and lifted the sanctions in December 2025.
Does this affect the 25 October runoff?
Not directly, because any impeachment would most likely wait for the new Senate that takes office in 2027. It does show how Flávio Bolsonaro’s allies plan to deal with the court.
Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE); US Treasury OFAC, 30 July 2025; US Treasury OFAC, 12 December 2025; The White House, executive order of 30 July 2025; Law 1,079 of 1950 (Planalto); CNN Brasil (column, hospital report); InfoMoney / Estadão; Agência Brasil; Poder360 (all accessed 7 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief