Brazil Beef Exports to US Jump 524% in September
BRAZIL · TRADE
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, sold US$27.5 billion of goods to the US from January to September 2026, from crude oil to beef.
- —What happened Brazil beef exports to the US reached US$263.5 million in September 2026, up 524% from US$42.2 million a year earlier.
- —Why it matters US shoppers paid an average US$6.92 a pound for ground beef in August, and Washington opened a lean beef duty break on 1 September.
- —The bigger picture Brazil’s total exports to the US fell 6.5% in the first nine months, while its beef sales there rose 82.9% to US$1.72 billion.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives a 57.5% chance that average US ground beef prices reach US$7 a pound in 2026 (10 October, 12:56 a.m. ET).
- —Still open The extra US quota closes by Monday, 30 November, and can be cut short if imports do not sell 25% below market prices.
Brazil beef exports to the United States jumped 524% in September from a year earlier, to US$263.5 million, official Brazilian trade data show. For US shoppers paying close to US$7 a pound for ground beef, Brazilian meat is helping offset a shrinking US cattle herd.
Amcham Brasil, the American Chamber of Commerce for Brazil, flagged the jump in a study reported on Friday, 9 October. The surge made the US the largest buyer of Brazilian fresh and frozen beef in September.
How Big the Beef Jump Is
Brazil sold 44,435 tonnes of fresh, chilled and frozen beef to the US in September, against 7,852 tonnes a year earlier, according to Comex Stat. Comex Stat is the official foreign trade database of Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services.
The value rose from US$42.2 million in September 2025 to US$263.5 million, and was 45% higher than in August. The average price also climbed, from about US$5.37 to US$5.93 a kilogram.
From January to September, Brazil beef exports to the US reached US$1.72 billion, up 82.9% on the same months of 2025. Volume rose from about 183,000 tonnes to 285,000 tonnes.
In September, the US took 21.5% of Brazil’s fresh and frozen beef sales by value. Chile came second with US$116.3 million, and China fell to fifth place with US$68.3 million.
Why Washington Opened the Door
President Donald Trump signed a proclamation on Wednesday, 26 August, adding 300,000 metric tons to the 2026 US import quota for lean beef trimmings. Lean trimmings are a raw material for US ground beef, and the August decision aimed to make ground beef cheaper.
The extra volume opens in three monthly tranches of 100,000 tonnes from 1 September. It goes only to suppliers without their own US allocation, a group that includes Brazil and Paraguay, according to Brazil’s agriculture ministry.
The White House said the US herd has fallen to its lowest level in 75 years. It also cited a US Department of Agriculture forecast that beef output will fall about 4% from 2025.
Shipments inside the new quota pay about US$44 a tonne instead of the usual 26.4% duty, O Hoje reported, citing Brazil’s agriculture ministry. Beef is also among the products spared from the extra US tariffs on Brazilian goods, g1 reported.
ABIEC, the association of Brazil’s beef-exporting meatpackers, pointed to the extra US quota opened in September, in comments carried by g1. It said US demand is also driven by tight cattle supply in the low phase of the American cattle cycle.
Brazil’s Other Sales to the US Are Shrinking
The beef boom stands out against a weak year for Brazilian trade with the US. Exports to the US fell 6.5% from January to September, to US$27.46 billion, according to Comex Stat.
Amcham Brasil said that is the lowest total for the first nine months since 2023, about US$1.9 billion less than a year earlier. September alone recovered, with sales up 31.9% to US$3.52 billion.
Sales of crude oil to the US fell 35.8% in the nine months, and green coffee fell 20%, Amcham found. Manufactured goods dropped 1.2%, their first decline for that period since 2020.
Goods hit by the highest extra US tariffs, of 25% to 37.5%, lost 25.4% of their sales, or about US$1.4 billion. Softwood lumber fell 50.6% and worked granite 34.1%, according to the study.
China Closes as America Opens
China bought 53% of Brazil’s fresh and frozen beef exports by value in 2025, Comex Stat data show. In September, Brazil beef exports to China fell 93.5% from a year earlier.
China’s Ministry of Commerce said Brazilian beef had filled its 2026 country quota of about 1.1 million tonnes on 29 September. Shipments above it pay an extra 55% from 1 October, Poder360 reported.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, bets put a 57.5% chance on the average US price of ground beef reaching US$7 a pound in any month of 2026. The odds fall to 17.5% for US$8 and 10% for US$10 (10 October, 12:56 a.m. ET).
About US$23,000 has been traded across the market, most of it on the US$10 question. It settles on the US Bureau of Labor Statistics average ground beef price, which stood at US$6.923 a pound in August.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
For US shoppers, rising Brazil beef exports mean more raw material for ground beef while the US cattle herd sits at a 75-year low. The White House can scrap the rest of the quota if imported trimmings do not sell 25% below US market prices.
For investors, the data show Brazilian meatpackers shifting sales to the US while China’s quota limits their sales there. Brazil’s separate dispute with Europe over meat imports is covered in this report.
For Brazil’s other exporters, from lumber mills to granite quarries, the extra US tariffs still bite. September’s rebound has not yet erased the losses of the year.
What Is Not Known
Washington has not said whether it will extend the extra beef quota beyond Monday, 30 November. It is unclear how much of each tranche went to Brazil beef exports.
The next US consumer price data, due on Wednesday, 14 October, will show whether ground beef prices eased in September.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are Brazil beef exports to the US rising so fast?
A temporary US quota for 300,000 tonnes of lean beef trimmings opened on 1 September, with a much lower duty. The White House says the US cattle herd is at its lowest level in 75 years.
How much beef did Brazil sell to the US in September 2026?
Brazil beef exports to the US totalled 44,435 tonnes worth US$263.5 million, according to Brazil’s official trade database. That is 524% more by value than in September 2025.
Will Brazilian beef make US ground beef cheaper?
It is not yet clear, since the average US price of ground beef was still US$6.923 a pound in August. The White House says it will watch whether imports lower prices.
When does the extra US beef quota end?
The third and last tranche opens on 31 October and closes when it is filled or on 30 November, whichever comes first. The White House can end the measure earlier.
Sources: Brazil Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, Comex Stat (exports to the US, beef HS 0201 and 0202), 10 October 2026; The White House, Proclamation ‘Further Ensuring Affordable Beef for the American Consumer’, 26 August 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, average price of ground beef, via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 11 September 2026; g1 (Amcham Brasil study), 9 October 2026; Poder360, 30 September 2026; O Hoje, 28 August 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error