Argentine Peso Pressure and Merval Slide Signal Rising Risk
Argentina’s peso firmed slightly at 1,375/1,345 ARS in official markets today. The parallel blue rate climbed to 1,355/1,335 ARS overnight.
Traders cited renewed central bank dollar sales to defend the official rate. The U.S. Dollar Index rose to 97.83, tightening global liquidity and reinforcing dollar strength.
Equity investors steered clear of the S&P Merval, which fell 2.27% to 1,939,743 ARS on September 1. Trading volume reached 1.87 billion ARS as major names underperformed. YPF SA led gains, rising 1.4% on rising oil prices.
Ternium Argentina climbed 2.6% amid steel import worries. Banco Macro lagged, slipping 0.35% on weak loan demand. Technical charts highlighted strong selling pressure. On the daily USD/ARS chart, price broke below the 50-day EMA at 1,376 ARS.
The 200-day SMA, near 1,290 ARS, lies far below, signaling a persistent uptrend in the peso’s cost. Bollinger Bands widened sharply, confirming elevated volatility. The RSI settled at 68 on the upside yellow liquidity index, hinting at slight overextension.
The MACD histogram moved positive after a late-August trough, but momentum remains fragile. Merval’s daily RSI plunged to 31, flirting with oversold conditions.
The index trades below its 50-day EMA of 1.98 million ARS and below its 200-day SMA at 2.11 million ARS. MACD lines diverged lower, and volume spikes validated the downtrend. On the 4-hour frame, Merval price saw brief support at 1.93 million ARS.
The RSI there moved sideways near 31, while MACD histogram showed narrowing red bars. Both charts signal potential short-term relief, yet sustained recovery faces strong resistance above 1.99 million ARS.
Analysts noted the yellow global liquidity index peaked at 30.2 on August 28 and has since eased to 29.7. That retreat may tighten local credit.
Traders expect central bank rate hikes to absorb excess pesos and defend reserves. Meanwhile, political risk ahead of elections keeps foreign flows on hold.
Peers in Latin America offered mixed signals. Brazil’s Bovespa rose modestly, supported by recent reforms. Chile’s IPSA eased slightly on copper price dips.
Mexico’s IPC held near record highs amid technology rally. Against these benchmarks, Argentina’s assets underperformed, reflecting unique policy and liquidity challenges.
Investors will watch central bank auctions today and U.S. Fed commentary this afternoon. A modest bounce in Merval or peso could occur on relief buying. Yet, unless external dollar strength eases, local markets may remain under pressure.
Deep Dive
For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Ibovespa, Merval, COLCAP, IPSA and IPC Guide
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
-0.20%
173,371.35
-0.20%
66,125.27
-0.74%
10,896.87
+0.10%
3,223,652
+0.74%
2,298.34
+0.00%
55,645.90
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 173,371.35 | -0.20% | +29.22% | 173,714.08 | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.09 | +0.04% | -8.71% | 5.09 | 5.09 | 5.08 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.15 | +0.61% | +32.53% | 40.90 | 41.44 | 40.47 | 26,963,500 |
| VALE3 | 71.93 | -1.38% | +28.33% | 72.94 | 73.25 | 71.71 | 13,089,900 |
| ITUB4 | 42.30 | +0.81% | +22.80% | 41.96 | 42.53 | 42.10 | 12,611,000 |
| BBDC4 | 18.41 | +0.66% | +17.41% | 18.29 | 18.51 | 18.28 | 12,802,000 |
| BBAS3 | 20.17 | -1.56% | +1.56% | 20.49 | 20.54 | 20.13 | 15,053,800 |
| B3SA3 | 15.26 | +0.39% | +16.49% | 15.20 | 15.43 | 15.14 | 16,307,500 |
| ABEV3 | 15.79 | +1.02% | +17.66% | 15.63 | 15.83 | 15.58 | 24,319,200 |
| WEGE3 | 43.13 | -1.15% | +2.76% | 43.63 | 43.79 | 43.02 | 3,973,600 |
| PRIO3 | 57.69 | -0.28% | +34.92% | 57.85 | 58.72 | 57.62 | 4,922,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.89 | -0.10% | -17.86% | 41.93 | 42.03 | 41.11 | 4,464,600 |
| RENT3 | 37.49 | -1.94% | +4.66% | 38.23 | 38.38 | 37.41 | 5,725,800 |
| AZZA3 | 18.17 | -2.26% | -48.86% | 18.59 | 18.75 | 18.16 | 906,100 |
| CSNA3 | 5.07 | +0.40% | -36.55% | 5.05 | 5.12 | 5.03 | 6,881,700 |
| GGBR4 | 23.62 | -1.75% | +42.12% | 24.04 | 24.25 | 23.53 | 4,280,300 |
| ENEV3 | 25.65 | -0.12% | +85.87% | 25.68 | 25.84 | 25.47 | 6,953,200 |
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