Merval Slips 0.2% as Telecom Falls 3.4% | Argentina Market Report, Oct 9
Key Facts
- Argentina’s S&P Merval index fell 0.2% to 2,828,027 points on Friday 9 October, as Telecom Argentina lost 3.4% in New York and Ternium gained 3.0%.
- Country risk, the extra yield investors demand on Argentine dollar bonds, rose 1 basis point to 589, after an intraday low of 584.
- The wholesale peso ended at 1,517 per US dollar, up 0.1%, while the blue (informal) dollar stayed at 1,540 and the Banco Nación retail rate fell to 1,535.
- The central bank’s reserves rose US$380 million to US$49.701 billion, the highest since 17 September, and it bought US$69 million of the day’s supply.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives Javier Milei 55.5% and Axel Kicillof 32.5% to win the next presidential election (US$830,749 traded, as of 8:24 pm ET, 9 October). Bets, not polls.
Today’s Focus
Argentine stocks slipped on Friday 9 October even as Brazil surged and Wall Street rose. The Merval, the main index of the Buenos Aires exchange, lost 0.2% to 2,828,027 points.
Bonds were mixed and country risk edged up by 1 basis point to 589. That level is the market’s price for the chance of trouble repaying debt.
The peso was calm. The wholesale dollar rose 0.1% to 1,517 pesos, far below the top of the central bank’s trading band at 1,928.82.
What matters today. Argentina lagged a strong regional day. Weak consumer data, not global risk, held local assets back.
01 The session in one read
The S&P Merval closed at 2,828,027 points, down 0.2% from 2,832,559 on Thursday, according to Infobae. Wall Street’s main indices rose between 0.6% and 0.8%, and the Bovespa in São Paulo gained 1.4% to a record.
Among Argentine shares in New York, Telecom Argentina fell 3.4% and Ternium rose 3.0%. Galicia rose 0.14%, YPF 0.28% and Banco Macro fell 1.43%, according to RT.
The central bank’s reserves reached US$49.701 billion, up US$380 million. It bought US$69 million, or 10.5% of the day’s spot supply.
Argentine assets held steady in a week when Brazil rallied more than 8%. That is a mild sign of strength for a market with weak consumption.
Infobae noted that consumer confidence is weak, inflation expectations remain high and a quarterly GDP contraction of about 1% is projected. These limit the upside for local shares.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Merval | 2,828,027 | -0.16% | Small loss |
| Country risk (JP Morgan) | 589 bp | +1 bp | Edged higher |
| Wholesale dollar | 1,517 | +0.1% | Calm |
| Blue dollar | 1,540 | 0.0% | Unchanged |
| Official retail (Banco Nación) | 1,535 | -0.3% | Slightly lower |
| Reserves | US$49.701bn | +US$380m | Highest since 17 September |
The wholesale rate is about US$0.00066 per peso. The central bank’s exchange band ceiling stood at 1,928.82 pesos per dollar. The RT calendar listed no Argentine data releases on 9 October, and the RT feed carries no Merval series, so the index figure comes from the Rio Times editorial feed and Infobae. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Argentina — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
MERVAL
2,828,027
-0.16%
+30.51%
3,022,485
3,042,365
2,991,150
—
USD/ARS
1,493
+0.10%
+12.96%
1,491
1,494
1,480
—
YPF
7,810
+0.26%
+72.84%
7,790
7,850
7,600
1,763,858
GGAL
6,980
-0.78%
+1.82%
7,035
7,115
6,920
1,564,062
PAMPA
5,115
+0.69%
+26.70%
5,080
5,140
5,000
721,190
TXAR
747.50
-2.35%
+18.67%
765.50
770.00
742.50
771,892
ALUAR
938.00
-1.21%
+29.83%
949.50
951.00
932.50
135,426
TGS
8,870
-0.17%
+15.05%
8,885
9,075
8,720
143,546
CEPU
2,156
+1.84%
+28.36%
2,117
2,165
2,086
404,146
MIRGOR
1,650
-1.20%
-92.90%
1,670
1,670
1,635
20,877
COME
40.93
-0.73%
-30.47%
41.23
41.60
40.50
4,258,884
LOMA NEGRA
3,130
+0.08%
+5.80%
3,128
3,205
3,090
182,992
BYMA
275.00
-1.70%
+35.14%
279.75
282.50
272.00
1,409,575
TELECOM ARG
4,233
-0.70%
+55.19%
4,263
4,335
4,160
31,896
GLOBANT
38.10
-2.26%
-49.65%
38.98
38.70
36.77
793,552
MERCADOLIBRE
1,870
-3.59%
-20.71%
1,940
1,927
1,870
329,640
03 Why it moved: regional strength against weak consumers
Global conditions were friendly. US Treasury yields eased, oil fell on Trump’s remark that the US would not attack Iran before the 3 November midterms, and Brazil’s election rally lifted sentiment across the region.
At home the picture was weaker. Infobae pointed to falling consumer confidence, persistent inflation expectations and rising prices for essential goods, which hurt spending.
Telecom Argentina’s 3.4% fall weighed on the index. We found no company news that explains it.
04 The day’s movers
| Stock (New York ADR) | Ticker | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ternium | TX | +3.03% | Steelmaker |
| Galicia | GGAL | +0.14% | Bank |
| YPF | YPF | +0.28% | State-controlled energy company |
| Pampa Energía | PAM | -0.42% | Power and gas |
| Banco Macro | BMA | -1.43% | Bank |
| Telecom Argentina | TEO | -3.36% | Telecoms |
Moves are for the New York receipts (RT). The Buenos Aires single-stock close list was not available at our deadline.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | Brazil | +1.38% |
| IPC | Mexico | +1.63% |
| IPSA | Chile | +0.20% |
| Merval | Argentina | -0.16% |
| COLCAP | Colombia | +0.21% |
| S&P 500 | United States | +0.59% |
Argentina was the only one of the five Latin American indices to fall on Friday.
06 The technical picture
The Merval has now traded around 2.83 million points for two sessions: 2,832,559 on Thursday and 2,828,027 on Friday. A sustained move requires a break of that tight range.
Country risk at 589 basis points is still below 600, a line La Nación highlighted on Friday. A rise above it would mean tighter funding for the government.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket’s market on the next Argentine presidential election priced Javier Milei at 55.5%, Axel Kicillof at 32.5% and Sergio Massa at 7.8%, with US$830,749 traded (read at 8:24 pm ET on 9 October). A separate market priced the chance that Milei leaves office before 2027 at 2.5%.
These prices are bets on a vote still more than a year away, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
07 What to watch
- Country risk: A move above 600 basis points would signal rising stress.
- Reserves: The central bank’s purchases and the US$49.7 billion reserve level shape confidence in the peso band.
- Consumption data: Weak retail and confidence figures would confirm the GDP contraction forecast.
- Brazil’s runoff: Argentina’s biggest trading partner votes on 25 October.
Background: Merval Gains 0.3% as Loma Negra Jumps 4.6% | Argentina Market Report, Oct 8.
Background: Argentina Market Report, Oct 5.
More: Argentina news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did the Merval do on 9 October?
The S&P Merval fell 0.2% to 2,828,027 points, according to Infobae.
What was Argentina’s country risk?
JP Morgan’s index rose 1 basis point to 589, after an intraday low of 584.
Where did the dollar close in Argentina?
The wholesale dollar ended at 1,517 pesos, the Banco Nación retail rate at 1,535 and the blue dollar at 1,540.
What do prediction markets say about the next election?
Polymarket priced Javier Milei at 55.5% and Axel Kicillof at 32.5% as of 8:24 pm ET, 9 October. These are bets, not polls.
Market data: RT; Merval close, country risk, dollar rates and reserves: Infobae; prediction markets: Polymarket (as of 8:24 pm ET, 9 October 2026)
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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