Merval Gains 1.45% as Inflation Hits 1.9% | Argentina Market Report, Oct 13
Key Facts
- Argentina’s S&P Merval rose 1.45% to 2,869,151 points on Tuesday 13 October, its first session after Monday’s holiday, even as Wall Street fell.
- INDEC reported September inflation of 1.9%, up from 1.7% in August and equal to the forecast in RT’s calendar; the annual rate was 33.4%.
- The wholesale dollar fell 0.3% to 1,512.50 pesos, its lowest since 17 September, and country risk rose 5 points to 597.
- The central bank bought about US$291 million and gross reserves reached US$49.84 billion.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives 63.8% to 2026 annual inflation ending between 30% and 34.9% (US$79,913 traded, read at 8:50 pm ET on 13 October). Bets, not forecasts.
Today’s Focus
Argentine shares rose on Tuesday 13 October, the first trading day after the Monday holiday. The S&P Merval gained 1.45% to 2,869,151 points, according to Rava Bursátil data.
The statistics office INDEC reported that consumer prices rose 1.9% in September. That was two-tenths above August and matched what analysts surveyed by the central bank expected.
Bonds slipped slightly and country risk edged up to 597 basis points. The peso strengthened against the dollar.
What matters today. Shares rose while sovereign bonds slipped, a mix US investors in Argentine ADRs should read as caution on inflation rather than a clean risk-on day.
01 The session in one read
The Merval closed at 2,869,151.19 points, up 1.45% from 2,828,030 on Friday. Infobae’s report gave the gain as 1.5% in its headline, and its text gave 0.5%; we use Rava’s figures.
Argentina’s ADRs, which are local shares traded in New York, mostly held up. Cresud’s IRSA gained 3.19%, Central Puerto 2.65% and BBVA Argentina’s ADR 1.11%.
Shares rose on the day while bonds fell and country risk edged higher. That split often reflects local-currency buyers lifting stocks and dollar bond holders staying careful.
The variable to watch is whether country risk stays under 600. A move above it would be a warning sign for bond investors.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P Merval | 2,869,151 | +1.45% |
| Wholesale dollar (ARS) | 1,512.50 | -0.30% |
| Blue dollar (ARS) | 1,550 | +0.65% |
| Country risk (points) | 597 | +5 pts |
| ARGT fund (US$) | 88.67 | -0.59% |
INDEC put September inflation at 1.9% for the month and 33.4% for the year. Core inflation, which strips out volatile prices, was 1.7%, and prices are up 23.6% since January. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Argentina — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
MERVAL
2,869,151
+1.45%
+30.51%
3,022,485
3,042,365
2,991,150
—
USD/ARS
1,493
+0.10%
+12.96%
1,491
1,494
1,480
—
YPF
7,810
+0.26%
+72.84%
7,790
7,850
7,600
1,763,858
GGAL
6,980
-0.78%
+1.82%
7,035
7,115
6,920
1,564,062
PAMPA
5,115
+0.69%
+26.70%
5,080
5,140
5,000
721,190
TXAR
747.50
-2.35%
+18.67%
765.50
770.00
742.50
771,892
ALUAR
938.00
-1.21%
+29.83%
949.50
951.00
932.50
135,426
TGS
8,870
-0.17%
+15.05%
8,885
9,075
8,720
143,546
CEPU
2,156
+1.84%
+28.36%
2,117
2,165
2,086
404,146
MIRGOR
1,650
-1.20%
-92.90%
1,670
1,670
1,635
20,877
COME
40.93
-0.73%
-30.47%
41.23
41.60
40.50
4,258,884
LOMA NEGRA
3,130
+0.08%
+5.80%
3,128
3,205
3,090
182,992
BYMA
275.00
-1.70%
+35.14%
279.75
282.50
272.00
1,409,575
TELECOM ARG
4,233
-0.70%
+55.19%
4,263
4,335
4,160
31,896
GLOBANT
38.10
-2.26%
-49.65%
38.98
38.70
36.77
793,552
MERCADOLIBRE
1,870
-3.59%
-20.71%
1,940
1,927
1,870
329,640
03 Why it moved: inflation in line, risk rising
The 1.9% reading matched the forecast in RT’s calendar and the central bank’s survey, so it did not surprise the market. Analysts quoted by Infobae said seasonal items such as fruit and clothing pushed the figure up.
Sovereign dollar bonds fell on average, and JP Morgan’s country-risk index rose 5 points to 597. That is still below 600.
04 The day’s movers
| ADR | Note | Change |
|---|---|---|
| IRSA ADR | Property | +3.19% |
| Central Puerto ADR | Power | +2.65% |
| BBVA Argentina ADR | Bank | +1.11% |
| Galicia ADR | Largest private bank | +0.03% |
| YPF ADR | Oil and gas | -0.35% |
| Telecom Argentina ADR | Telecoms | -0.41% |
| Loma Negra ADR | Cement | -0.70% |
ADR moves are RT’s New York closes. YPF’s Buenos Aires shares rose 3.29%, while its New York ADR fell 0.35%.
05 The regional scoreboard
Argentina was the second-strongest major index in Latin America, behind Colombia’s 1.54%. Mexico gained 0.33%, Chile fell 0.21% and Brazil’s Ibovespa fell 1.04%.
The wholesale dollar fell 0.3% to 1,512.50 pesos, while the unofficial blue dollar rose 10 pesos to 1,550. The central bank’s upper band limit is 1,933.02 pesos.
06 The technical picture and outlook
The central bank bought about US$291 million, and gross reserves rose US$138 million to US$49.84 billion, Infobae reported. Steady purchases help the bank rebuild reserves.
On Wednesday 14 October the Treasury faces about 4.9 trillion pesos (about US$3.2 billion at 1,512.50) of Lecap bond maturities, according to Vector Investments. How much it rolls over will show demand for peso debt.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market, priced Argentina’s 2026 annual inflation at 30% to 34.9% with a 63.8% chance and 25% to 29.9% at 31.5%, with US$79,913 traded (read at 8:50 pm ET on 13 October).
These prices are bets on the official data, not forecasts.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
07 What to watch
- Treasury auction: About 4.9 trillion pesos of Lecap bonds mature on Wednesday 14 October, and the rollover rate will be closely read.
- Country risk: A move above 600 points would be a warning sign.
- US consumer prices: The September reading is due on Wednesday 14 October at 12:30 UTC (8:30 am ET).
- Reserves: Continued central bank purchases would push reserves toward US$50 billion.
Background: Merval Slips 0.2% as Telecom Falls 3.4%.
Background: Merval Gains 0.3% as Loma Negra Jumps 4.6%.
More: Argentina news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Argentine stocks do on 13 October?
The S&P Merval rose 1.45% to 2,869,151 points, according to Rava, in the first session after the Monday holiday.
What was Argentina’s inflation in September?
INDEC reported 1.9% for the month, up from 1.7% in August, and 33.4% over twelve months.
What happened to country risk?
JP Morgan’s index rose 5 points to 597 basis points, still below 600.
What do prediction markets say about 2026 inflation?
Polymarket priced a 2026 annual rate of 30% to 34.9% at 63.8%, as of 8:50 pm ET on 13 October. These are bets, not forecasts.
Market data: Rava Bursátil, RT; inflation, bonds, dollar and reserves: INDEC and Infobae; calendar: RT; prediction markets: Polymarket (as of 8:50 pm ET, 13 October 2026)
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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