Kwacha Leads African Currencies in 2026
Africa · Markets & Investment
Zambia’s kwacha is the strongest of 12 African currencies we track against the US dollar in 2026, up 14.8% since 31 December 2025, according to EODHD market data to 9 October 2026. Nigeria’s naira is second at 8.5%, and Uganda’s shilling is the weakest, down 10.0%.
Key Facts
—Who. US investors, importers and anyone sending or earning money in Africa, where one dollar buys very different amounts of local currency than at the start of the year.
—What. A ranking of 12 African currencies by their 2026 move against the US dollar, the reasons behind the biggest winners and losers, and the data releases that can change the order.
—Why it matters. The Zambian kwacha gained 14.8% and the Nigerian naira 8.5% in 2026, while the Ugandan shilling lost 10.0% and the Egyptian pound 8.9%. The same US$1,000 now buys about 13% fewer kwacha than in January and about 11% more Ugandan shillings.
—Prediction markets. Polymarket (not a poll; the bets of traders) prices about a 75% chance that South Africa’s annual inflation for 2026 ends above 5.0%, with US$90,775 traded, as of 12 October 2026, 7:15 a.m. ET.
—Method. Changes compare the 31 December 2025 close with the 9 October 2026 close on EODHD; a positive figure means the local currency bought more US dollars.
The Short Answer: Who Is Up and Who Is Down in 2026
Only two of the 12 currencies in our table gained more than 1% against the US dollar between 31 December 2025 and 9 October 2026. The Zambian kwacha rose 14.8% and the Nigerian naira 8.5%.
The South African rand and the Namibian dollar, which move together, ended almost exactly where they started. Nine lost ground, and the Ugandan shilling lost the most.
| Currency | Per US$, 31 Dec 2025 | Per US$, 9 Oct 2026 | Move vs US$ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zambian kwacha (ZMW) | 22.19 | 19.33 | +14.8% |
| Nigerian naira (NGN) | 1,444.57 | 1,330.85 | +8.5% |
| South African rand (ZAR) | 16.57 | 16.51 | +0.4% |
| Namibian dollar (NAD) | 16.59 | 16.60 | −0.1% |
| Kenyan shilling (KES) | 128.00 | 128.86 | −0.7% |
| Botswana pula (BWP) | 13.01 | 13.40 | −2.9% |
| CFA franc, West Africa (XOF) | 554 | 583 | −5.0% |
| Moroccan dirham (MAD) | 9.12 | 9.75 | −6.5% |
| Tanzanian shilling (TZS) | 2,461.65 | 2,639.99 | −6.8% |
| Ghanaian cedi (GHS) | 10.90 | 11.77 | −7.4% |
| Egyptian pound (EGP) | 47.69 | 52.37 | −8.9% |
| Ugandan shilling (UGX) | 3,582.90 | 3,980.64 | −10.0% |
The move is the change in what one unit of local currency buys in US dollars. A positive figure means the local currency strengthened. All rates are EODHD closes, which we treat as the benchmark for market data.
Zambia: The Kwacha Leads, but Has Given Back Part of Its Gain
The kwacha is Africa’s best performer this year, but its best moment has passed. At its strongest in 2026 on EODHD data it traded at 17.22 per US$1, a gain of about 29% on the year-end level, and it has since slipped back to 19.33.
Copper is Zambia’s main export, and the metal’s price drives the supply of dollars into the country. On 6 January 2026 News24 reported that the kwacha had gained the most of any currency tracked by Bloomberg.
The lesson for a visitor or investor is that the kwacha’s gain was not a steady climb: it peaked and then eased. A currency that rises on a commodity can fall just as fast if the price turns.
Nigeria: A Calmer Naira Backed by Larger Reserves
The naira closed at N1,330.85 per US$1 on 9 October 2026, which is about US$0.00075 per naira and 8.5% stronger than at the end of 2025. On the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market it traded at N1,332.75 on 7 October, after N1,331.50 the day before, Nairametrics reported.
Trading volume on 6 October reached US$1.014 billion, the highest in early October. Gross external reserves stood at US$54.61 billion on 14 September 2026, above the central bank’s projected year-end level of about US$51.04 billion, according to the same report.
For the naira the story is stability more than strength. Since 1 September its EODHD daily closes have stayed between N1,318.51 and N1,331.43 per US$1.
Uganda and Egypt: The Two Biggest Losers
The Ugandan shilling fell to 3,980.64 per US$1 on 9 October, its weakest EODHD close of the year and 10.0% below its end-2025 value. In July the shilling was 3.2% weaker than a year earlier, averaging 3,709.51 per US$1. The Bank of Uganda blamed bearish sentiment after renewed US-Iran hostilities and higher dollar demand from oil, manufacturing and telecoms companies, the Daily Monitor reported on 21 August 2026.
Egypt’s pound closed at 52.37 per US$1, 8.9% weaker than at the start of the year. On EODHD data it was weaker still earlier in 2026, touching 54.65, so its slide has partly reversed.
Egypt has let the pound float since March 2024. Its central bank’s rate decisions are what currency traders watch most closely.
The Pegged and Managed Currencies Tell a Different Story
The CFA franc used in West Africa is tied to the euro at a fixed rate. Its 5.0% fall against the dollar therefore says more about the euro than about any African economy.
Morocco manages the dirham against a basket of currencies, and the Botswana pula also follows a managed path. Their moves of 6.5% and 2.9% are mostly a mirror of how the dollar has moved against other major currencies this year.
What to Watch Before the Year Ends
Two inflation releases can shift the picture soon. Nigeria publishes September inflation on 15 October, and South Africa follows on 21 October.
Central bank rate meetings in Egypt, Uganda and elsewhere will matter too, and the dates differ by bank. Check each central bank’s own calendar before you act on any date.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a trading platform where people bet real money on outcomes, lists a market on South Africa’s annual inflation for 2026. As of 12 October 2026, 7:15 a.m. ET, it priced about 75% for a figure above 5.0%, about 15% for 4.7–5.0%, about 6% for 4.4–4.7% and about 5% for 4.1–4.4%, with US$90,775 traded. Prices are rounded and can add up to a little more or less than 100%.
Prices are bets, not polls. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
If you are paid in kwacha or naira, or hold assets in them, the year has been kind, but both gains can reverse. If you spend dollars in Uganda or Egypt, your money goes further than in January, at the cost of local prices that usually rise as a currency weakens.
Travellers and expats should watch the release dates above rather than headlines about records. We could not confirm the exact causes of each move from central bank statements, so the reasons given here are those reported by named outlets.
Related reading: our coverage of Zimbabwe, doing business in Togo and Africa sets the wider context.
Sources
- EODHD, daily closes for USD/ZMW, NGN, ZAR, NAD, KES, BWP, XOF, MAD, TZS, GHS, EGP and UGX, 31 December 2025 and 9 October 2026
- Nairametrics, naira and NFEM turnover, 8 October 2026
- News24, Zambia’s kwacha, 6 January 2026
- Daily Monitor (Uganda), shilling depreciation in July, 21 August 2026
- Polymarket, South Africa Annual Inflation 2026, read 12 October 2026
- Statistics South Africa, release calendar
Frequently Asked Questions
Which African currency is strongest against the US dollar in 2026?
Among the 12 currencies we track, the Zambian kwacha, which gained 14.8% against the US dollar between 31 December 2025 and 9 October 2026 on EODHD data. The Nigerian naira is second with 8.5%.
Which African currency has fallen the most in 2026?
The Ugandan shilling, down 10.0%, from 3,582.90 to 3,980.64 per US dollar. The Egyptian pound is next, down 8.9%.
Why did the Zambian kwacha rise so much?
Copper is Zambia’s main export, and News24 reported on 6 January 2026 that the kwacha had gained the most of any currency tracked by Bloomberg.
Is the Nigerian naira stable now?
It has been steady. It closed at N1,330.85 per US dollar on 9 October 2026, and gross external reserves of US$54.61 billion on 14 September were above the central bank’s year-end projection.
Does the CFA franc fall mean West Africa is weaker?
Not necessarily. The CFA franc is tied to the euro at a fixed rate, so its 5.0% move against the dollar mostly reflects the euro.
Which data releases could move African currencies next?
Nigeria’s September inflation figure, due on 15 October 2026, and South Africa’s, due on 21 October 2026. Central bank rate meetings in Egypt and Uganda matter too; check each bank’s calendar.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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