Venezuela-US Tensions: Data Room
Venezuela-US tensions at a glance: dates and times in US Eastern Time, prediction markets, the key facts with their sources and every story we have published.
Key Facts
—Facts 17 sourced facts below, each with a link to its source.
—Our reports 8 stories in this dossier; the latest five are listed below.
Facts last compiled 23 October 2026, 6:37 p.m. ET; last checked 23 October 2026, 6:37 p.m. ET. Schedule, prediction markets and stories refresh every 30 minutes or faster.
What Prediction Markets Say
Prediction markets · Venezuela-US tensions
Implied chances from traders’ prices. Prices are bets, not polls.
Who leads Venezuela in practice at the end of 2026
Polymarket: US$418,000 traded.
Who leads Venezuela in practice at the end of 2026
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC): 37,342 contracts traded.
Opposition leader María Corina Machado enters Venezuela
Polymarket: US$6.7 million traded.
A presidential election date is set by 31 December
Polymarket: US$644,000 traded.
US invasion of Venezuela by 31 December
Polymarket: US$14.2 million traded.
Which companies sign a Venezuelan oil agreement
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC): 3,953 contracts traded.
As of Friday, 23 October, 6:27 p.m. ET, updated every 20 minutes.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Key numbers
Who is involved
Where things stand
Timeline
Key dates
Our Latest Reports
8 stories in this dossier
US Uses Rare Torture Law in Maduro Case
US prosecutors in Manhattan added a torture-conspiracy count to the Maduro case under a 1994 law. Both defendants pleaded not guilty on 15 October.
Venezuela's 303bn Barrels Draw Expert Doubt
Experts quoted this week put Venezuela's producible oil at 60 to 120 billion barrels, not 303 billion, and question the White House claim of 65 billion.
US Reportedly Uses Venezuela Files, 23 Oct
ABC reports that US authorities use Venezuela files once held by intelligence police to screen travellers, but neither government has confirmed it.
Venezuela Opposition Calls Election Protests
Opposition leader María Corina Machado urged Venezuelans to rally nationwide today for a 2027 election date, her safe return and freedom for prisoners.
Venezuela Cabinet Shake-Up Reported 19 Oct
A Monday report says the US wants technocrats around Delcy Rodríguez and new oil-field operators named in January 2027. No official confirmation has been found.
Sources and Downloads
aljazeera.comcsis.orgdhnet.bemediapart.fr
Facts are gathered automatically from the sources above. Every figure carries its source; figures that two independent searches do not confirm are marked or left out.
Free to use under CC BY 4.0: credit The Rio Times and link to this page.