South Africa Household Hunger Climbs to 12%

SOUTH AFRICA · FOOD SECURITY

Household hunger in South Africa reached its highest level since 2010 last year, a new food security index shows. Rising power, transport and housing costs are eating into budgets even as food inflation cools.

The share of South African households reporting hunger rose to 12% in 2025, up from 11.9% in 2024. That is the highest level since 2010, according to the South African Food Security Index 2026.

The index, commissioned by retailer Shoprite and written by economists linked to Stellenbosch University, also found that 14.7% of individuals experienced hunger. The finding shows that cheaper groceries alone have not eased pressure on poor households in a G20 economy.

What the Food Security Index 2026 Found

The Shoprite Group, which calls itself South Africa’s largest food retailer, publishes the index every year around World Food Day. This is the third edition, and the report was available on the group’s website on Tuesday, 13 October.

The index scores food security from 0 to 100, with 50 as the midpoint between low and relatively high security. It fell to 52.6 in 2025 from 56.5 in 2024, after a low of 44.9 in 2023.

Those readings remain well below the 2019 peak of 65.8, according to the 2025 and 2026 editions of the report. The index combines three measures: food prices relative to general prices, self-reported hunger and the variety of food people eat.

The hunger and diet data come from the General Household Survey, run each year by Statistics South Africa, the state statistics office. Stats SA released the 2025 survey on Tuesday, 26 May 2026.

Business Day, a Johannesburg financial daily, reported the findings on Tuesday under the headline that household hunger had hit a 15-year high. Its figures match the published report on hunger, the index score and the 2024 comparison.

Why Cheaper Food Has Not Ended Hunger

The puzzle in the report is that hunger rose while food inflation slowed sharply. Food inflation reached 5.7% in July 2025 but fell to just 1% by June 2026, the authors write.

Their explanation is that food now competes with other bills that keep climbing. By March 2026, housing and utilities made up 39% of headline inflation, more than double the 19% share from food.

National electricity tariffs rose 8.76% for 2026/27, and fuel prices also went up, the report notes. It estimates that lower-income households will pay an extra R160 (about US$10) a month for electricity.

Transport is expected to cost those households a further R115 (about US$7) a month. Conversions use open.er-api.com rates of 12 October 2026, at R16.54 per US$1.

Unemployment adds to the squeeze, at 33.6% in the second quarter of 2026, according to Statistics South Africa. That means roughly one in three people who want work cannot find it, which limits how families absorb higher costs.

Shoprite Chief Sustainability Officer Sanjeev Raghubir writes in the foreword that easing food inflation has been good news for households. However, he adds, it “does not mean families can consistently afford the nutritious and varied diets they need.”

Rural Women and Weak Provinces Bear the Brunt

The burden falls especially on rural households headed by women, the report finds. The share of those households living below the food poverty line rose from 38.4% in 2023 to 41.7% in 2025.

In 2025, 65% of rural female-headed households fell below the lower-bound poverty line, and almost 86% below the upper bound. These are the official lines Stats SA uses to measure who can afford basic food and essentials.

Results also varied by province, the nine regional governments that run health and schools. Limpopo, in the far north, performed surprisingly well in 2025, the authors write.

The Northern Cape and North West showed significantly lower values, driven by more hunger and less food variety. Index values in the other six provinces stayed relatively stable between 2024 and 2025.

For the first time, the report also uses purchase data from Shoprite and Checkers stores across the country. It shows lower- and middle-income shoppers moving to cheaper products and smaller pack sizes, often cutting protein and fresh produce.

What It Means for US Readers

For US investors, the index is a reminder that South African consumers remain under strain despite cooling prices. That matters for holders of Johannesburg-listed retailers and rand bonds, often owned through emerging-market funds.

Shoprite itself says its internal selling-price inflation in South African supermarkets was 0.8% in its 2026 financial year. Official food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation was 3.9% over the same period, the group says.

Food security is also political in South Africa, where a multi-party coalition has governed since 2024. Rising hunger adds pressure to raise social grants, a spending line that bond investors watch closely.

For travellers and expatriates, the findings do not change safety advice or entry rules. They do explain why grocery prices, power bills and taxi fares are a constant topic in South African news and politics.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket traders put a 77% chance on December 2026 annual inflation above 5.0%, and 13% on 4.7% to 5.0%. The market, with about US$92,000 in bets, resolves on the Stats SA consumer price report due on 20 January 2027.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What Is Not Known

The report does not say how many households the 12% represents, and that count was not checked in Stats SA tables. Province-by-province hunger rates appear only in a chart, so exact figures for each province are not stated here.

The authors project an overall improvement in food security in 2026, based on lower inflation in the first half of the year. That projection assumes other measures change at the same pace as in 2025, which may not hold.

It is also unclear how representative Shoprite’s own shopping data are, since customers may also buy from other formal and informal sellers. The report itself flags that limit when it compares its in-store tracker with the national index.

What Comes Next

World Food Day falls on Friday, 16 October, when food charities and officials usually respond to such findings. The next General Household Survey, covering 2026, is scheduled for release by Stats SA in May 2027.

The 2026 index does not mean food prices are rising again, since food inflation stood at 1% in June 2026. It shows instead that low-income households are spending more of their money on power, transport and housing.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many South African households reported hunger in 2025?

According to the South African Food Security Index 2026, 12% of households reported hunger in 2025, up from 11.9% in 2024. The report says this is the highest level since 2010, while 14.7% of individuals experienced hunger.

Who publishes the South African Food Security Index?

The Shoprite Group, which calls itself South Africa’s largest food retailer, commissions and publishes the index each year. The 2026 edition was written by economists Anja Smith and Dieter von Fintel of Stellenbosch University, with Bianca Dempers.

Why did hunger rise when food inflation fell?

The report says food budgets now compete with fast-rising electricity, transport and housing costs. By March 2026, housing and utilities made up 39% of headline inflation, more than double the 19% share from food.

Which South Africans are most affected?

Rural households headed by women are the most exposed, with 41.7% below the food poverty line in 2025. The Northern Cape and North West provinces also scored significantly lower than in 2024.

Does this affect US investors?

It signals continued pressure on South African consumers, which matters for Johannesburg-listed retailers and rand bonds held by US funds. Polymarket bets also put a 77% chance on 2026 inflation above 5.0%.

Sources: Shoprite Group, South African Food Security Index 2026; Shoprite Group, South African Food Security Index 2025; Statistics South Africa, General Household Survey 2025; Statistics South Africa, key indicators; Business Day (all accessed 13 October 2026).

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