Serbia Election Poll Tracker and Live Odds
This tracker collects every national poll for Serbia’s parliamentary election on Sunday, 25 October 2026. It shows our average and the raw data, free to download.
Our average of 2 pollsters puts the SNS-led list on 44.3% and the Student List on 42.5%. Serbia has far fewer public polls than most countries, so read small gaps as noise.
Key Facts
—Election. Sunday 25 October 2026; 126 of the 250 seats in the National Assembly make a majority.
—Poll average. SNS list 44.3%, Student List 42.5%, SPS 3.4%.
—Threshold. A list needs 3% of the votes cast to win seats; ethnic minority lists can win seats below that.
—Database. 8 national polls from 2026, each linked to its release.
—Prediction markets. SNS-led list 66%, Student list 32% on Kalshi, 23 October 2026, 3:07 a.m. ET. Bets, not polls.
Data last changed 23 October 2026, 2:40 a.m. ET; last checked 23 October 2026, 3:08 a.m. ET. Polls are checked every 40 minutes, prediction markets every 20.
Who Is Ahead in the Polls
The bars show our current average for each list, and the chart shows every eligible poll of 2026 by publication date.
Poll average · share of the vote Weighted average of the latest eligible poll of each of 2 pollsters, published in the last 60 days. Few pollsters publish in Serbia, so the average rests on few polls. No seat projection: the sources give no seat estimates. Every eligible poll of 2026 One point per poll, by publication date; polls commissioned by a party list are not drawn.
What Prediction Markets Say
Prediction markets · Serbia parliamentary election
Implied chances from traders’ prices. Prices are bets, not polls.
Kalshi: parliamentary election winner
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC): 15,588 contracts traded.
Kalshi: prime minister after the election
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC): 22,774 contracts traded.
Kalshi: Student List vote share
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC): 15,949 contracts traded.
Kalshi: voter turnout
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC): 12,281 contracts traded.
As of Friday, 23 October, 3:07 a.m. ET, updated every 20 minutes.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Every Poll, Newest First
Each card shows one poll with its publication date, sample size and vote shares. The link opens the pollster’s or the publishing outlet’s own release.
All 8 polls of 2026 are in the CSV and JSON files.
Download the Poll Data
Free to use under CC BY 4.0: credit The Rio Times and link to this page. UTF-8, header row, ISO dates (YYYY-MM-DD).
8 rows, one per poll, newest first. Columns: poll_id, pollster, published, sample_size, one share column per list as the source prints it, flags and the link to the release.
How the Average Works
The average uses the newest eligible poll of each pollster published in the last 60 days. Each poll is weighted by age, with its weight halving every 21 days, and by sample size, using the square root of the sample divided by 1,000, capped between half and double weight.
Polls commissioned by a party or coalition stay in the database but out of the average. Where a source gives one share for several small lists together, we count it once. The average is not a forecast, and polls can miss.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is ahead in the Serbia election polls?
The SNS-led list stands on 44.3% in our average and the Student List on 42.5%. Pollsters disagree on who leads, so treat small gaps as noise.
When is the Serbian parliamentary election?
Serbia votes on Sunday 25 October 2026 to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly.
How many seats make a majority in Serbia?
The National Assembly has 250 seats, so 126 make a majority. A list needs 3% of the votes cast to win seats; ethnic minority lists can win seats below that.
Why is a poll missing from the average?
Polls commissioned by a party or coalition are listed but left out. The average uses the newest eligible poll of each pollster from the last 60 days.
Can I use this poll data?
Yes. Download the CSV or JSON for free under a CC BY 4.0 licence, credit The Rio Times and link to this page.
More on Serbia’s Election
For the story behind the numbers, read our Serbia votes on Sunday report and follow the Serbia election live updates.
Sources: the list “Opinion polling for the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election” on Wikipedia (current revision, checked every 40 minutes) and the release of each pollster or publishing outlet, linked on every card; Kalshi public price data. Compiled and averaged by The Rio Times.