{
 "key": "rs",
 "title": "Serbia 2026 parliamentary election poll database",
 "page": "https://www.riotimesonline.com/serbia-election-poll-tracker/",
 "publisher": "The Rio Times",
 "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "license_note": "Free to use with attribution: credit The Rio Times and link to https://www.riotimesonline.com/serbia-election-poll-tracker/",
 "election_date": "2026-10-25",
 "seats_total": 250,
 "majority": 126,
 "threshold_pct": 3,
 "source": {
  "name": "Wikipedia: Opinion polling for the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election",
  "page": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Serbian_parliamentary_election",
  "revision_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Serbian_parliamentary_election&oldid=1381478861",
  "revision": 1381478861,
  "revision_ts": "2026-10-22T20:02:36Z",
  "note": "Every row links to the pollster's or the publishing outlet's own release (source_url). The list gives the publication date, not the fieldwork dates."
 },
 "method": {
  "average": "weighted mean of the latest eligible poll of each pollster published in the last 60 days; weight = recency (half-life 21 days) x sample size (square root of n/1000, capped 0.5-2)",
  "excluded": "polls commissioned by a party or coalition (marked in the source) stay in the database but not in the average",
  "merged": "where a source gives one share for several lists together, we count it once, on the first list of the group",
  "seats": "no seat projection: the source has no seat estimates and we do not model them"
 },
 "average": {
  "asof": "2026-10-23",
  "pollsters": 2,
  "window_days": 60,
  "pct": {
   "sns": 44.3,
   "student": 42.5,
   "sps": 3.4,
   "pes": 2.9,
   "nada": 2.6,
   "other": 4.2
  },
  "poll_ids_used": [
   "2026-09-21-faktor-plus",
   "2026-10-20-nspm"
  ]
 },
 "parties": [
  {
   "k": "sns",
   "n": "SNS-led list (Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia)",
   "s": "SNS list",
   "c": "#1f5fa8"
  },
  {
   "k": "student",
   "n": "Student List",
   "s": "Students",
   "c": "#c8102e"
  },
  {
   "k": "sps",
   "n": "Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS–JS)",
   "s": "SPS",
   "c": "#d98c00"
  },
  {
   "k": "pes",
   "n": "Platform for a European Serbia (SSP, SRCE)",
   "s": "Europe list",
   "c": "#4f8a2a"
  },
  {
   "k": "nada",
   "n": "National Democratic Alternative (NDSS, monarchists)",
   "s": "NADA",
   "c": "#6a3d9a"
  },
  {
   "k": "other",
   "n": "All other lists and others",
   "s": "Others",
   "c": "#8d6e63"
  }
 ],
 "trend": {
  "dates": [
   "2026-04-30",
   "2026-06-26",
   "2026-07-15",
   "2026-07-30",
   "2026-09-04",
   "2026-09-21",
   "2026-10-20"
  ],
  "series": {
   "sns": [
    46.4,
    47.1,
    35.7,
    37.5,
    47.2,
    48.6,
    42.7
   ],
   "student": [
    28.7,
    30.7,
    44.9,
    39.6,
    31.5,
    37.1,
    44.5
   ],
   "sps": [
    5.0,
    5.0,
    3.8,
    4.9,
    4.9,
    4.9,
    2.9
   ]
  }
 },
 "counts": {
  "polls": 8,
  "pollsters": 4,
  "in_average": 2,
  "party_commissioned": 1,
  "rejected_rows": 0,
  "problems": 0
 },
 "latest_poll": {
  "poll_id": "2026-10-22-ipsos",
  "pollster": "Ipsos",
  "commissioner": "",
  "published": "2026-10-22",
  "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-22",
  "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-22",
  "sample_size": 3624,
  "pct": {
   "sns": 47.4,
   "student": 40.0,
   "sps": 3.2,
   "pes": 0.8,
   "nada": 1.7,
   "other": 6.9
  },
  "raw": {
   "sns": 47.4,
   "sps": 3.2,
   "student": 40.0,
   "ssp": 0.8,
   "srce": null,
   "nps": null,
   "zlf": null,
   "ds": null,
   "ndss": 1.7,
   "monarchists": null,
   "mi_sn": null,
   "kp": null,
   "others": 6.9
  },
  "flags": [
   "party_poll",
   "merged_cells"
  ],
  "in_average": false,
  "source_url": "https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2026-10/Saopstenje_-_Ipsos_Strategic_Marketing_-_Parlamentarni%20Izbori_2026_-_finalna_procena.pdf",
  "first_seen": "2026-10-23T06:34:55Z",
  "in_source": true
 },
 "polls": [
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-22-ipsos",
   "pollster": "Ipsos",
   "commissioner": "",
   "published": "2026-10-22",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-22",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-22",
   "sample_size": 3624,
   "pct": {
    "sns": 47.4,
    "student": 40.0,
    "sps": 3.2,
    "pes": 0.8,
    "nada": 1.7,
    "other": 6.9
   },
   "raw": {
    "sns": 47.4,
    "sps": 3.2,
    "student": 40.0,
    "ssp": 0.8,
    "srce": null,
    "nps": null,
    "zlf": null,
    "ds": null,
    "ndss": 1.7,
    "monarchists": null,
    "mi_sn": null,
    "kp": null,
    "others": 6.9
   },
   "flags": [
    "party_poll",
    "merged_cells"
   ],
   "in_average": false,
   "source_url": "https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2026-10/Saopstenje_-_Ipsos_Strategic_Marketing_-_Parlamentarni%20Izbori_2026_-_finalna_procena.pdf",
   "first_seen": "2026-10-23T06:34:55Z",
   "in_source": true
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-20-nspm",
   "pollster": "NSPM",
   "commissioner": "",
   "published": "2026-10-20",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-20",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-20",
   "sample_size": 1050,
   "pct": {
    "sns": 42.7,
    "student": 44.5,
    "sps": 2.9,
    "pes": 2.7,
    "nada": 2.5,
    "other": 4.7
   },
   "raw": {
    "sns": 42.7,
    "sps": 2.9,
    "student": 44.5,
    "ssp": 2.7,
    "srce": null,
    "nps": null,
    "zlf": null,
    "ds": null,
    "ndss": 2.5,
    "monarchists": null,
    "mi_sn": null,
    "kp": null,
    "others": 4.7
   },
   "flags": [
    "merged_cells"
   ],
   "in_average": true,
   "source_url": "https://www.nspm.rs/istrazivanja-javnog-mnjenja/srbija-jesen-2026.-i.html",
   "first_seen": "2026-10-23T06:34:55Z",
   "in_source": true
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-09-21-faktor-plus",
   "pollster": "Faktor Plus",
   "commissioner": "",
   "published": "2026-09-21",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-09-21",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-21",
   "sample_size": 986,
   "pct": {
    "sns": 48.6,
    "student": 37.1,
    "sps": 4.9,
    "pes": 3.6,
    "nada": 2.8,
    "other": 3.0
   },
   "raw": {
    "sns": 48.6,
    "sps": 4.9,
    "student": 37.1,
    "ssp": 3.6,
    "srce": null,
    "nps": null,
    "zlf": null,
    "ds": null,
    "ndss": 2.8,
    "monarchists": null,
    "mi_sn": 1.2,
    "kp": null,
    "others": 1.8
   },
   "flags": [
    "merged_cells"
   ],
   "in_average": true,
   "source_url": "https://www.blic.rs/vesti/politika/najnovije-istrazivanje-faktor-plusa-vucic-na-486-evo-koliko-imaju-studenti/trlmfkj",
   "first_seen": "2026-10-23T06:34:55Z",
   "in_source": true
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-09-04-faktor-plus",
   "pollster": "Faktor Plus",
   "commissioner": "",
   "published": "2026-09-04",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-09-04",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-04",
   "sample_size": 1200,
   "pct": {
    "sns": 47.2,
    "student": 31.5,
    "sps": 4.9,
    "pes": 3.6,
    "nada": 2.1,
    "other": 10.7
   },
   "raw": {
    "sns": 47.2,
    "sps": 4.9,
    "student": 31.5,
    "ssp": 3.6,
    "srce": null,
    "nps": 3.4,
    "zlf": null,
    "ds": null,
    "ndss": 2.1,
    "monarchists": null,
    "mi_sn": 2.9,
    "kp": null,
    "others": 4.4
   },
   "flags": [
    "merged_cells"
   ],
   "in_average": false,
   "source_url": "https://www.blic.rs/vesti/politika/najnovije-istrazivanje-agencije-faktor-plus-aleksandar-vucic-na-ivici-apsolutne/jrsr5sg",
   "first_seen": "2026-10-23T06:34:55Z",
   "in_source": true
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-07-30-nspm",
   "pollster": "NSPM",
   "commissioner": "",
   "published": "2026-07-30",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-07-30",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-07-30",
   "sample_size": 1000,
   "pct": {
    "sns": 37.5,
    "student": 39.6,
    "sps": 4.9,
    "pes": 4.2,
    "nada": 2.3,
    "other": 11.5
   },
   "raw": {
    "sns": 37.5,
    "sps": 4.9,
    "student": 39.6,
    "ssp": 4.2,
    "srce": null,
    "nps": 5.6,
    "zlf": null,
    "ds": null,
    "ndss": 2.3,
    "monarchists": null,
    "mi_sn": 3.8,
    "kp": null,
    "others": 2.1
   },
   "flags": [
    "merged_cells"
   ],
   "in_average": false,
   "source_url": "https://vreme.com/vesti/nspm-studentska-lista-ispred-sns-jos-cetiri-liste-preko-cenzusa/",
   "first_seen": "2026-10-23T06:34:55Z",
   "in_source": true
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-07-15-crta",
   "pollster": "CRTA",
   "commissioner": "",
   "published": "2026-07-15",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-07-15",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-07-15",
   "sample_size": 2324,
   "pct": {
    "sns": 35.7,
    "student": 44.9,
    "sps": 3.8,
    "pes": 1.3,
    "nada": 1.5,
    "other": 12.8
   },
   "raw": {
    "sns": 35.7,
    "sps": 3.8,
    "student": 44.9,
    "ssp": 0.9,
    "srce": 0.4,
    "nps": 2.2,
    "zlf": 0.4,
    "ds": 0.8,
    "ndss": 1.5,
    "monarchists": null,
    "mi_sn": 2.0,
    "kp": 2.8,
    "others": 4.6
   },
   "flags": [],
   "in_average": false,
   "source_url": "https://n1info.rs/vesti/crta-istrazivanje-izbori-studentska-lista-sns/",
   "first_seen": "2026-10-23T06:34:55Z",
   "in_source": true
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-06-26-faktor-plus",
   "pollster": "Faktor Plus",
   "commissioner": "",
   "published": "2026-06-26",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-06-26",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-06-26",
   "sample_size": 1200,
   "pct": {
    "sns": 47.1,
    "student": 30.7,
    "sps": 5.0,
    "pes": 4.5,
    "nada": 2.2,
    "other": 10.5
   },
   "raw": {
    "sns": 47.1,
    "sps": 5.0,
    "student": 30.7,
    "ssp": 4.5,
    "srce": null,
    "nps": 3.8,
    "zlf": null,
    "ds": null,
    "ndss": 2.2,
    "monarchists": null,
    "mi_sn": 3.0,
    "kp": null,
    "others": 3.7
   },
   "flags": [
    "merged_cells"
   ],
   "in_average": false,
   "source_url": "https://www.blic.rs/vesti/politika/najnovije-istrazivanje-sns-i-vucic-na-471-odsto-evo-koliko-imaju-studenti/vh32kd1",
   "first_seen": "2026-10-23T06:34:55Z",
   "in_source": true
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-04-30-faktor-plus",
   "pollster": "Faktor Plus",
   "commissioner": "",
   "published": "2026-04-30",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-04-30",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-04-30",
   "sample_size": 1000,
   "pct": {
    "sns": 46.4,
    "student": 28.7,
    "sps": 5.0,
    "pes": 8.6,
    "nada": 2.5,
    "other": 8.8
   },
   "raw": {
    "sns": 46.4,
    "sps": 5.0,
    "student": 28.7,
    "ssp": 8.6,
    "srce": null,
    "nps": null,
    "zlf": null,
    "ds": null,
    "ndss": 2.5,
    "monarchists": null,
    "mi_sn": 3.0,
    "kp": 1.8,
    "others": 4.0
   },
   "flags": [
    "merged_cells"
   ],
   "in_average": false,
   "source_url": "https://www.blic.rs/vesti/politika/najnovije-istrazivanje-javnog-mnjenja-evo-koliko-imaju-vucic-i-sns-koliko-studenti/hf1b1nz",
   "first_seen": "2026-10-23T06:34:55Z",
   "in_source": true
  }
 ],
 "odds": {
  "updated": "2026-10-23T08:47Z",
  "markets": {
   "m0": {
    "platform": "Kalshi",
    "title": "Kalshi: parliamentary election winner",
    "ts": "2026-10-23T08:47Z",
    "volume": null,
    "contracts": 15588,
    "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxserbiaparli",
    "rows": [
     {
      "n": "SNS-led list",
      "p": 66.0
     },
     {
      "n": "Student list",
      "p": 32.0
     }
    ]
   },
   "m1": {
    "platform": "Kalshi",
    "title": "Kalshi: prime minister after the election",
    "ts": "2026-10-23T08:47Z",
    "volume": null,
    "contracts": 22774,
    "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxserbiapm",
    "rows": [
     {
      "n": "Aleksandar Vučić",
      "p": 69.0
     },
     {
      "n": "Ilija Srdanović",
      "p": 16.0
     },
     {
      "n": "Miloš Vučević",
      "p": 1.0
     }
    ]
   },
   "m2": {
    "platform": "Kalshi",
    "title": "Kalshi: Student List vote share",
    "ts": "2026-10-23T08:47Z",
    "volume": null,
    "contracts": 15949,
    "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsrbiastudent",
    "rows": [
     {
      "n": "At least 30%",
      "p": 95.0
     },
     {
      "n": "At least 34%",
      "p": 84.0
     },
     {
      "n": "At least 38%",
      "p": 67.0
     },
     {
      "n": "At least 42%",
      "p": 57.0
     }
    ]
   },
   "m3": {
    "platform": "Kalshi",
    "title": "Kalshi: voter turnout",
    "ts": "2026-10-23T08:47Z",
    "volume": null,
    "contracts": 12281,
    "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxserbiaturnout",
    "rows": [
     {
      "n": "At least 3,300,000",
      "p": 97.0
     },
     {
      "n": "At least 3,000,000",
      "p": 97.0
     },
     {
      "n": "At least 3,150,000",
      "p": 97.0
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "source": "ev-serbia-election-odds.json (job sys-event-odds: Kalshi trade API v2, CFTC-regulated)"
 },
 "files": {
  "csv": "https://www.riotimesonline.com/wp-content/uploads/rt-live/dataroom-rs-polls.csv",
  "json": "https://www.riotimesonline.com/wp-content/uploads/rt-live/dataroom-rs.json"
 },
 "inject_ids": [
  763417
 ],
 "hub_id": 763677,
 "published": "2026-10-23",
 "updated": "2026-10-23T06:40:46Z",
 "checked": "2026-10-23T08:48:01Z"
}