São Paulo Governor Poll Puts Tarcísio on 50.7% as Haddad Trails at 33.3%
Brazil · Elections
Key Facts
- —What happened Paraná Pesquisas released a survey on 22 September 2026 giving Tarcísio de Freitas 50.7% and Fernando Haddad 33.3%.
- —How it was done Face-to-face interviews with 1,600 voters in 70 towns, 19 to 21 September 2026, margin of error 2.5 points.
- —Why it matters A majority of valid votes on 4 October 2026 would re-elect Tarcísio outright and avoid a runoff.
- —The runoff test In a head-to-head second round the governor leads 54% to 36.4%, the same survey found.
- —The catch Other pollsters show the same leader but different gaps, from 11 points at AtlasIntel to 20 at Datafolha.
- —What comes next A new Quaest survey for TV Globo is due on Wednesday 23 September 2026.
Twelve days before Brazil votes, a fresh survey suggests the incumbent could keep Brazil’s richest state without a runoff. His rival, a former finance minister, trails by 17 points.
A new São Paulo governor poll puts the incumbent, Tarcísio de Freitas, on 50.7% of voting intentions. His main challenger, Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party (PT), has 33.3%.
The survey by Paraná Pesquisas, a private polling firm, was released on Tuesday 22 September 2026. Brazilians vote on Sunday 4 October 2026, twelve days later.
São Paulo is Brazil’s most populous state and its economic engine. Its governor commands one of the country’s largest public budgets and a national platform.
What the survey found
Tarcísio, of the centre-right Republicanos party, leads by 17.4 percentage points. That gap is far outside the survey’s margin of error of 2.5 points.
Vera Lúcia of the Trotskyist PSTU has 1.8% and Carlos Machado of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCB) 1.0%. Izadora Dias of the Workers’ Cause Party (PCO) has 0.9%.
Vivian Mendes of Popular Unity (UP) has 0.6%. Blank or spoiled votes add up to 7.2%, and 3.8% are undecided.
Brazilian law elects a governor in the first round with a majority of valid votes, which excludes blank and spoiled ballots. On these numbers, Tarcísio would clear that bar comfortably.
In a simulated runoff, the governor leads 54% to 36.4%. A runoff, if needed, would be held on 25 October 2026.
Method, dates and registration
Paraná Pesquisas interviewed 1,600 voters face to face, in their homes, in 70 municipalities across the state. Fieldwork ran from Saturday 19 to Monday 21 September 2026.
The margin of error is 2.5 points at a 95% confidence level. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number SP-03057/2026.
The firm paid for the survey itself, according to Poder360, the Brasília news site. Brazilian law requires every published electoral poll to be registered in advance with the courts.
A trend that barely moves
The firm’s previous São Paulo survey, released on 11 September 2026, had Tarcísio on 49.7% and Haddad on 34.5%. Both shifts sit within the margin of error, Metrópoles noted.
Earlier rounds told the same story. Tarcísio had 48.5% in July and 50.0% in August, while Haddad ranged between 33.8% and 35.1%, according to Brasil de Fato.
The survey also measured rejection, meaning voters who would not back a candidate under any circumstances. Haddad scores 43.2% on that measure, against 29.4% for the governor.
The gender gap is wide. Tarcísio takes 60.8% among men but only 41.8% among women, where Haddad reaches 38.5%.
How other pollsters see the race
Every recent survey has the same leader, but the size of the gap varies. Datafolha, polling for TV Globo and the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, released figures on Friday 11 September 2026.
It found Tarcísio on 49% and Haddad on 29% among 1,610 voters. In its runoff simulation the governor won 56% to 35%.
Quaest, working for TV Globo, published on Tuesday 8 September 2026 after fieldwork from 4 to 7 September. It had Tarcísio on 42% and Haddad on 27%.
AtlasIntel, which recruits respondents online, polled with the newspaper Estadão from 26 to 31 August 2026. It showed a narrower race, 51.1% to 39.9%.
Real Time Big Data, surveying 2,000 voters from 16 to 19 September 2026, put the governor on 53% and Haddad on 38%. A new Quaest survey for TV Globo is due on Wednesday 23 September, CartaCapital reported.
Who Tarcísio and Haddad are
Tarcísio de Freitas, 51, was born in Rio de Janeiro and is a former army captain trained as an engineer. He served as infrastructure minister under former president Jair Bolsonaro from 2019 to March 2022.
He was elected governor in 2022, beating Haddad in the runoff with 55.3% of valid votes. He took office on 1 January 2023 and is seeking a second four-year term.
Fernando Haddad, 63, is one of the PT’s best-known figures. He was education minister from 2005 to 2012 and mayor of São Paulo city from 2013 to 2016.
He lost the 2018 presidential runoff to Bolsonaro.
He was finance minister under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva until 20 March 2026. He left to run, and Dario Durigan replaced him.
A candidate on the list who is out
The survey still listed Policial Edjane, a military police officer running for the Agir party, who scored 0.8%. São Paulo’s regional electoral court rejected her ticket on Friday 18 September 2026.
The court cited incomplete proof of her leave from the police and her running mate’s resignation, Metrópoles reported. Agir said it would not appeal and backed Tarcísio the next day, Gazeta do Povo reported.
The campaign in its last stretch
Tarcísio skipped a televised debate on the Record network on Monday 21 September 2026. He said debates had become “muito mais do mesmo”, or much more of the same, Exame reported.
Haddad, interviewed alone on the stage, called the absence disrespectful to voters. “Ela se ganha o 4 de outubro na urna,” he said: it is won at the ballot box on 4 October.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What does the new São Paulo governor poll show?
Paraná Pesquisas found Tarcísio de Freitas on 50.7% and Fernando Haddad on 33.3% in the first round. The survey was released on 22 September 2026, based on 1,600 face-to-face interviews from 19 to 21 September. Its margin of error is 2.5 points and it is registered as SP-03057/2026.
Could Tarcísio win without a runoff?
Yes, if he wins a majority of valid votes on 4 October 2026. Valid votes exclude blank and spoiled ballots. Every recent survey shows him ahead, and Datafolha’s runoff simulation of 11 September 2026 gave him 56% to 35%.
Is Haddad still Brazil’s finance minister?
No. Haddad left the finance ministry on 20 March 2026 to run for governor of São Paulo. Dario Durigan replaced him as finance minister.
When is the next survey due?
Quaest is due to publish a new survey for TV Globo on Wednesday 23 September 2026, according to CartaCapital.
Sources: Poder360 on the Paraná Pesquisas figures and registration, Brasil de Fato on rejection and earlier rounds, Metrópoles on the method and trend, Band on the voter breakdown, Poder360 on the Datafolha survey, Gazeta do Povo on the Quaest survey, CNN Brasil on the AtlasIntel survey, Poder360 on Real Time Big Data, Metrópoles on the rejected Agir ticket, Exame on the Record debate
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