OPEC: Oil production in Mexico will fall during 2023

Oil and liquid hydrocarbon production in Mexico will fall by 2% or 40,000 barrels per day during 2023, due to the decline of mature fields of state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), estimated the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

“The main growth drivers in 2023 are expected to be the United States, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Guyana, while oil production declines will come from Russia and Mexico,” it published in its latest monthly report.

The Agency predicted that Mexico would produce up to 1.96 million per day from 2 million. The drop will occur in the last quarter of next year.

“The decline in Pemex’s total crude oil production in mature fields is expected to outpace increases in other fields,” OPEC said in the document.

Crude oil production in the country remained broadly unchanged month-over-month.

It averaged 1.6 million per day in August, while gas condensates (NGLs) increased slightly by 9,000 units per day from its onshore fields where liquids, known as natural gasoline, are produced.

Bloomberg Línea consulted the Ministry of Energy (Sener) on the subject but did not obtain an immediate response.

The government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as AMLO, has as its energy policy the rescue of Pemex to raise oil production and refine all crude oil in the country to be self-sufficient in gasoline and diesel.

Still, high oil prices -which oscillate around US$100 per barrel- have diluted the Mexican government’s objective.

The Organization estimates that by 2022 Mexico’s liquid hydrocarbon production will reach 2 million per day.

The increase in 2022 will be driven by fields operated by foreign companies, with lower growth in fields operated by Pemex.

“There is upside potential for the 2022 fourth-quarter forecast due to maintenance at the Ku-Maloob-Zaap asset, as Pemex has not yet confirmed the maintenance plan for this year,” OPEC added.

The figure estimated by OPEC with data from Pemex contemplates oil production and condensates, including those recovered from gas transportation and the barrels delivered by its private partners.

The interim president of the National Hydrocarbons Commission (CNH), Alma America Porres Luna, said on October 13 that Mexico will not achieve the goal of two million barrels per day by the end of Lopez Obrador’s six-year term in 2024, according to the regulator’s most recent estimates.

With information from Bloomberg