Milei gains ground in the polls and divides the opposition in Argentina

By Bastián Díaz 

Indicated by some as “functional to Kirchnerism”, the figure of the libertarian separates the Juntos x El Cambio (Together for Change) bloc: Patricia Bullrich thinks it is possible for him to join the coalition; Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, in no way.

While the Argentines watch the World Cup and the ruling party remains attentive to the trial of the Vice President Cristina Fernández, the leaders of the center right begin to evaluate surveys, make calculations and imagine the best possible combinations for a 2023 that, on the other side of the mountain range, is plenty of elections: not only the presidential one in October, but the primaries and those of governor in most of the provinces.

Of the 23 governors to choose, 22 have their election next year, and the most early (like those of Neuquén, La Rioja, La Pampa, Salta and San Juan) will serve also to measure the forces between political spaces.

At that very moment, the opposition coalition Juntos x el Cambio begins to prepare its possible alliances, and for a moment, the figure of the libertarian Javier Milei generated controversy inside. The right-wing deputy, who normally criticizes the traditional “political caste”, always kept a certain distance from Macrismo, but recently he is “willing” to run a primary with it.

Enemy of quarantines, incredulous of climate change and in favor of carrying weapons,the polarizing candidate begins to gain ground in the polls, but he also knows that it would be difficult for him to reach the presidency without the most centrist votes.

This week, the consultant Zubán Córdoba revealed that the libertarian would enjoy a high image in different provinces of Argentina, even leading the intention of vote on some of them. “Libertarianism ceased to be a phenomenon of big urban areas and became a national phenomenon that is beginning to reap good results in districts unimaginable a few months ago. Could it be that the dispersion in Juntos por el Cambio leaves a vacant space for the libertarian leader?,” the document from the consultant indicated.

Overall, the founder of the La Libertad Avanza party is the third non official candidate  with the best “positive image”. The first is the head of the government of the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, and the second, the president of the PRO, Patricia Bullrich.

But, at least in a “safe vote”, this race is led by the current vice president Cristina Fernández, who has 29.3% of the intentions for 2023, according to the consultant. She is followed by Bullrich, with 22.7%; Rodríguez Larreta, with 21%, and Javier Milei, with 17.1% of the sure vote.

However, both Fernández and Milei have a great disadvantage of their own polarizing figures: the high disapproval of both politicians, which leads to 56.4% of respondents say they would not vote for the vice president, while 53.9% would not vote for the libertarian.

In this context, Juntos x el Cambio is interested in the positive political capital of Milei, which divides the two most important leaders, today, in the center-right coalition. Patricia Bullrich has agreed with the idea of including Javier Milei in her coalition. “We have several points in common,” said the former minister of Security of Mauricio Macri. In addition, she went so far as to say that, in case of winning the elections of 2023, she “would think” about including the deputy in her government.

Bullrich’s sympathy for Milei is, in a way, reciprocated. Already in an interview last week, Milei maintained that he would be willing to go to a primary with Patricia Bullrich for the 2023 presidential election. The deputy also pointed out that he could accompany her as Minister of Economy, in case she loses the primary, but putting a fatal condition: as long as it is “in a structure outside Juntos por el Cambio.”

“I am willing to receive the hard wing of Juntos por el Cambio in our space, and if they wanted an internal one, we give them the internal one. And if they win, we accompany them,” said the ultraliberal, making it clear who he thought to exclude from his coalition: “Without the radicals, without the Civic Coalition and without the impoverishing inoperative lukewarm and bitter popcorn”, he clarified.

It must be remembered that Juntos por el Cambio was the coalition with which Mauricio Macri won the 2015 presidential elections, although at the time it was called  “Cambiemos” (Let’s Change).

Composed by the PRO party (Republican Proposal), Radical Civic Union and Civic Coalition, the three “center-right” spaces, its main figures at the national level belong to the first party: both Macri and Rodríguez Larreta and Bullrich, president of the collectivity.

That’s why Milei, who comes from a more radical right, would prefer not to share space with the other two parties. In addition, whenever possible, he is critical, not only with Kirchnerism, but with the management of the coalition during the Macri government.

“They are like ‘reloaded kirchnerists’, because the kirchnerists are at least brutes, these are going to deal damage efficiently, which is more problematic. There is a wing of JxC with which he gets along very well and can work, but not with the soft wing, the radicalism and the Civic Coalition, because they are part of the failure,” said the deputy.

These declarations, of course, left relations in Juntos x el Cambio tense, and Bullrich herself does not agree with the libertarian’s diagnosis. “For me, Milei can join a change, always respecting that we are in different political forces,” the president of the PRO declared to Clarín.

Who has no interest, for the moment, in sharing space with the leader of La Libertad Avanza is Horacio Rodríguez Larreta. “Until now he has not shown any vocation to work together. You have to expand first with people who coincide in the values in the defense of institutions and, second, who has a vocation for dialogue”, the head of the Buenos Aires government told Radio Rivadavia.

“Milei is from another party. We have a coalition that won the last election, we took 40% of the votes, with which we have a very strong support base”, considered Rodríguez Larreta, recalling with that the results in the legislative elections of 2021, which managed to cause a major break in Kirchnerism and ruling Peronism.

The radicals also rejected Milei’s statements, and also the opening that Bullrich considered. “That has already been resolved, the issue is finished. We have closed that door and that no one from the PRO believes they are the owner of Juntos por el Cambio. In any case, the ones who want to go, let them go,” said Gerardo Morales, the president of that party. With this they also recalled that a document was signed at a national coalition table, where it was pointed out that the figure of Milei, in his way of dividing the opposition,” was functional to Kirchnerism.”

After all this, Milei attacked Larreta and Juntos x el Cambio through Twitter. “I never asked to be there… I will not be with a bunch of losers to be part of a new failure that brings the KKs in 2027 … And especially with those who repeat ideas that plunged us into misery…”, said the deputy.

With information from La Tercera