Milei Calls Lula a Thief Ahead of Brazil Vote
Politics: Argentina
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 83.8% · Lula 15.5% (US$175 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 84% · Lula 17%
As of 7 October, 8:20 pm ET (01:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Key Facts
—Who. Javier Milei, Argentina’s conservative president, and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s left-wing president, who is seeking re-election.
—What. Milei posted the words “LULA LADRÓN” (Lula thief) over a photo of Lula on Instagram, according to Argentine media.
—Where. On Instagram, from Buenos Aires, aimed at the Brazilian presidential runoff.
—When. Wednesday 7 October 2026, 18 days before the runoff on Sunday 25 October 2026.
—Prediction markets. Polymarket prices a Flávio Bolsonaro win at about 84% and a Lula win at 15.5%. Kalshi, regulated in the US by the CFTC, shows 83–84% and 16–17% (7 October 2026, 7:41 p.m. ET). These are bets, not polls.
—As of. 7 October 2026, 23:44 GMT.
Argentina’s President Javier Milei called Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a “thief” in an Instagram post on Wednesday 7 October 2026. The post lands 18 days before Brazil’s presidential runoff on 25 October, where Lula faces Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
What We Know
Milei shared a graphic from the Cato Institute, a US libertarian think tank, with the words “LULA LADRÓN” in capitals over a photograph of Lula. Argentine outlets including El Tribuno, Cadena 3 and La Capital report that he repeated it in his Instagram stories.
The graphic carries a quote attributed to Ian Vásquez, the institute’s vice president for international studies. In our translation from the Spanish text, it says that what made people reject Lula and his party is, to a large extent, corruption.
On Monday 5 October, at a cabinet meeting, Milei called the first-round result “a great triumph” and accused Lula of running a “plan platita” at the end of the campaign. The phrase means a handout plan, a late spending push aimed at winning votes.
On Saturday 25 July Milei travelled to São Paulo and shared a stage with Flávio Bolsonaro at the Pacaembu stadium, at the PL party convention that made his candidacy official. Brazil called its ambassador in Buenos Aires home for consultations the next day, after Milei’s remarks there, according to Brazilian media.
Where the Brazilian Race Stands
Brazil’s electoral court, the TSE, counted 47.03% of valid votes for Flávio Bolsonaro and 45.16% for Lula in the first round on Sunday 4 October. Neither passed 50%, so the two meet again on Sunday 25 October.
The gap was about 2.2 million votes out of about 119.3 million valid votes. Some Argentine outlets quote slightly different percentages, so we use the TSE figures.
Abstention was 21.08%, which means about 33.5 million registered voters stayed home. With the race this tight, those voters are a pool both campaigns will chase.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a global prediction market, traders price a Flávio Bolsonaro win at about 84% and a Lula win at 15.5%, with about US$175 million traded. On Kalshi, which is regulated in the United States by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the prices are 83–84% and 16–17% (read on 7 October 2026, 7:41 p.m. ET).
These prices are real-money bets, not polls, and they can move within minutes of news like this post. A price of about 84% means traders see roughly five chances in six, not a certainty.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why Argentina and Brazil Matter to Each Other
Argentina and Brazil are partners in Mercosur, the South American trade bloc, and Brazil is Argentina’s largest trading partner. A long feud between the two presidents therefore carries costs beyond the headlines.
The two governments have clashed before. We reported in July that Brazil recalled its ambassador and in August that Milei repeated the word “thief”.
What Is Not Known
It is not clear whether Brazil’s government will respond formally this time. We found no official Brazilian reaction to the post in the reports we reviewed.
Polls published after the first round are not yet in our data. It is also unknown whether a foreign leader’s post moves any Brazilian voters.
Milei has appeared with Bolsonaro’s campaign in public since July, and we do not know whether he will say more before the vote. Argentina’s government has not published a statement on the post in the reports we reviewed.
What to Watch Next
Two dates frame the next three weeks. Argentina’s statistics agency INDEC is due to publish September inflation on Tuesday 13 October, with the central bank’s market survey expecting about 1.9% for the month, against 1.7% in August.
Brazil votes on Sunday 25 October, with polling stations closing at 17:00 Brasília time (20:00 GMT). The TSE publishes the count on the night, and we will update our market prices after the result.
What It Means for US Readers and Investors
Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy, and the 25 October result will shape the direction of its markets, its currency and its trade policy. Investors who hold Brazilian shares or US-listed Brazilian companies are watching the margin as much as the winner.
Milei’s post also shows how far the race has become a regional contest between the right and the left. A US think tank’s graphic was the vehicle for the post, which ties the Brazilian vote to the American debate over Latin America’s political direction.
More: Argentina news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Milei say about Lula?
Milei posted the words “LULA LADRÓN” (Lula thief) over a photo of Lula on Instagram on Wednesday 7 October 2026. The graphic came from the US Cato Institute, according to Argentine media.
When is Brazil’s presidential runoff?
The runoff is on Sunday 25 October 2026 between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula. Whoever wins a majority of valid votes becomes president.
Who is ahead in Brazil?
In the first round on 4 October the TSE counted 47.03% for Bolsonaro and 45.16% for Lula. Prediction markets, which are bets rather than polls, price a Bolsonaro win at about 84%.
Why does this matter to US readers?
Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy, so the runoff affects its markets and currency. Investors in Brazilian shares and US-listed Brazilian companies follow the race closely.
Sources
TSE (Brazil’s electoral court) · El Tribuno · Cadena 3 · La Capital · Polymarket · Kalshi
Connected Coverage
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief