Mexican Peso Holds Strong Despite Dollar Index Recovery

The Mexican peso demonstrated notable resilience against the US dollar over the past 24 hours, even as the dollar index showed signs of recovery.

As of early July 4, 2025, the USD/MXN pair traded near 18.63, reflecting a stable peso in the face of renewed dollar strength. The Bank of Mexico’s steady policy approach continues to underpin the peso’s appeal.

By maintaining interest rates and signaling that future moves will depend on inflation data, the central bank has preserved the currency’s yield advantage.

This stance, combined with Mexico’s ongoing trade surplus and robust remittance inflows, has provided a solid foundation for the peso, even as manufacturing data remains soft.

On the US side, the dollar index edged higher, buoyed by modest improvements in recent employment data. However, the gains failed to translate into significant pressure on the peso.

Market participants expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged in July, with any potential cuts likely postponed, which has limited the dollar’s upside. Technical analysis of the daily USD/MXN chart reveals a persistent bearish trend for the pair.

USD/COP Technical Update

The price remains below all major moving averages—20, 50, 100, and 200-day—which continue to slope downward. The pair trades near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating ongoing selling pressure.

The MACD remains negative, though the histogram suggests the pace of decline is slowing. The Relative Strength Index hovers near oversold territory, signaling a stretched market but no clear reversal.

The four-hour chart supports this view, showing a period of consolidation after a sharp drop. Short-term moving averages have flattened, and the MACD histogram has shrunk, pointing to waning bearish momentum.

The RSI remains below 40, indicating weak buying interest and little immediate upward pressure. Trading volumes stayed subdued, with most activity during the European and early US sessions.

No significant inflows or outflows appeared in major peso-denominated ETFs, reflecting a cautious stance among institutional investors. The peso’s performance over the past day highlights its ability to withstand external pressures, including a firmer dollar index.

Investors continue to favor the peso for its yield and stability, while the dollar’s gains remain limited by ongoing uncertainty in US economic prospects. The charts and official data confirm that the market’s direction remains grounded in fact, not speculation.

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