Majority of Brazilians oppose involvement of active military in Brazilian politics – poll

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The majority of the population is against the involvement of active duty military personnel in political demonstrations and in federal government positions. The topic has been the focus of several crises in the Jair Bolsonaro administration.

According to Datafolha, 62% of Brazilian adults think that uniformed personnel should not be involved in this type of activity, such as the case of active duty general Eduardo Pazuello on May 23 in Rio de Janeiro, when he stood on a platform alongside the president. For 39%, the activity is acceptable, and 4% were unable to opine.

According to the Military Statute, a 1980 law, and the Army’s 2002 disciplinary regulation, uniformed men on active service are banned from any kind of political manifestation.

However, Pazuello was not punished. The ex-Minister of Health, whose administration is being scrutinized by the Senate Covid CPI (investigative committee), the general now holds a position in the Planalto Palace.

Bolsonaro has always praised him, and argued that he had not committed any irregularity because he was supporting the president as an individual.

Behind the scenes, the president made it clear to the Army leadership that he wanted to preserve Pazuello from punishment, which range from a verbal warning to up to 30 days of administrative arrest. The incident has had negative repercussions within the Armed Forces.

Predictably, the people who vote for Bolsonaro for reelection in 2022 are the ones who most support the illegality: in the two scenarios simulated by Datafolha, the approval rates for the idea reach 56% and 57%.

Conversely, those who want the return of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) are in greater opposition: 71% and 72% believe that the law should be enforced.

Among the general public, the younger population (46%) and those earning between 5 to 10 minimum wages (41%) are more favorable to the uniformed forces’ involvement.

The Pazuello incident is one of several friction points caused by the renewed prominence of the military since Bolsonaro, a retired Army captain, surprised the political world and won the 2018 runoff election for president.

As explained in the book of the then commander of the Force, Eduardo Villas-Bôas, the military class were slow to embrace Bolsonaro, known as undisciplined, who left active duty with no formal expulsion, following a controversial internal proceeding.

Encouraged by the anti-PT sentiment expressed by the presidential candidate, reserve generals rallied around him and helped set up his government’s team. After his victory, Bolsonaro enigmatically said that he owed his election to Villas-Bôas.

Active-duty officers also joined the Esplanade of Minstries, which is the target of severe criticism by observers and could be changed if a proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) on the issue advances in the Chamber of Deputies.

Crises began to emerge, initially clashes between the military and the government’s ideological wing. In early 2020, Bolsonaro’s political isolation introduced the many uniformed officers to the core of the federal government, and today 7 out of 23 cabinet ministers come from the Armed Forces.

During the cyclical crisis between Bolsonaro and the other branches of government, the military was involved time and again – the president often boasts of their support to assert his political authority.

The situation came to a head this year, when the president became annoyed with what he considered a lack of support from commanders, particularly from the Army, for his opposition to social isolation and other measures to contain the Covid-19 pandemic.

He ultimately dismissed his Defense Minister, reserve general Fernando Azevedo, and the three chiefs of the Armed Forces. The Pazuello case followed soon after.

Last week, a new chapter unfolded with a note from the military leadership harshly criticizing Senator Omar Aziz (PSD-AM) for having spoken of a “rotten side” of the Armed Forces when commenting on the prevalence of officers in corruption accusations in the Ministry of Health, a portfolio formerly managed by Pazuello.

Another focus of tension is the speculation, fueled by Bolsonaro whenever he speaks of “my Army”, that the military could support an “auto coup” attempt by the president.

This is dismissed by general officers, although there is concern about support from members of a related security sector, the state police. Moreover, the amount of resistance to Lula within the military is always an unknown factor.

The population does not seem indifferent. According to Datafolha, 58% of respondents say that the military should not work in public administration. The number was 54% in May and 52% in May 2020. Those who approve of the participation dropped from 43% in 2020 to 41% last year, and now reach 38%, while 4% were unable to opine (5% in the two previous question rounds).

Once again, political preference shows a great split in opinions in the polls: 76% and 75% of future Lula’s voters criticize the practice, but 78% and 77% of those who would vote for Bolsonaro support it.