Lula da Silva’s lead over Bolsonaro drops from 18 to 9 points in decisive Minas Gerais state – poll

The Genial/Quaest poll released Friday (12) shows that former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT, left) accounts for 42% of the electoral voting intentions in Minas Gerais state, the current head of government, Jair Bolsonaro (PL, right), has 33%.

Minas Gerais is traditionally one of the decisive states in Brazilian elections. It ranks as the second most populous (21.3 million), the third by gross domestic product (GDP), and the fourth largest by area in the country. The Belo Horizonte metropolitan area is the third largest in Brazil, with just over 5.8 million inhabitants, after those of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.

The saying goes: If you don’t win in Minas Gerais, you can’t win the whole country.

A month ago, the difference between the two was 18% (46% for Lula da Silva versus 28% for the president). Now it’s 9%.

The Quaest Institute surveyed 2,000 voters in person in Minas Gerais from August 6 to 9. The margin of error is estimated at two percentage points, more or less, with a 95% confidence level.

The other candidates come to 9% – the same percentage among the undecideds.