KENYA · WEATHER
Key Facts
- —What happened Kenya’s disaster centre says 1.5 million people face El Niño rain risks.
- —Displacement The government estimates up to 500,000 people may have to leave home.
- —Priority counties Nairobi, Kisumu, Busia and Mandera top an 18-county watch list.
- —The forecast The weather service expects above-average October to December rain in most counties.
- —Next date Disaster planners mark the UN risk reduction day on Tuesday, 13 October.
- —Still open The size of the government’s disaster budget was not disclosed.
About 1.5 million Kenyans could be hit by heavy El Niño rains, with Nairobi, Kisumu, Busia and Mandera most exposed.
Kenya’s National Disaster Operations Centre expects about 1.5 million people to be affected by above-average rains this season. Up to 500,000 of them may be forced from their homes, the centre’s director said in remarks reported on Sunday, 11 October.
The warning matters beyond Kenya because Nairobi is East Africa’s diplomatic, aviation and business hub. The Kenya flood risk now covers the capital, the Lake Victoria shore and the dry north-east near Somalia.
Four Counties Top the Kenya Flood Risk List
Colonel David Samoei, director of the National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC), set out the figures at a three-day disaster-preparedness forum in Nakuru. The NDOC is the government unit that coordinates emergency response across ministries and counties.
Of 18 counties exposed to possible disasters, the government sees four among the most vulnerable, the Swahili daily Taifa Leo reported. They are Nairobi, Kisumu, Busia and Mandera.
“NDOC has focused more on Nairobi and carried out disaster-response drills,” Samoei said, in a translation from Swahili. He added that Kisumu County could be hit hard by the Nyando River, where officials are already working along the banks.
In Busia, the danger comes from the Nzoia River and the low-lying Budalangi area, he said. Officials there are preparing with the Water Resources Authority, the state body that manages rivers and water use.
Mandera, on the borders with Somalia and Ethiopia, faces a different threat. “Mandera could face challenges if the road linking Mandera and Wajir is covered by floodwater,” Samoei said.
What the Weather Service Forecasts
The warning rests on the Kenya Meteorological Department’s outlook for the October to December “short rains” season. The bulletin expects above-average rainfall in more than 40 of Kenya’s 47 counties, including Nairobi, Kisumu, Busia, Mandera and Mombasa.
The department says the El Niño pattern is “currently strong.” It adds that El Niño boosts rainfall when it coincides with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, a warm-water pattern off East Africa.
The same bulletin lists flash floods, riverine flooding and damage to water and sanitation systems among the likely impacts. It also notes possible gains, such as better harvests and groundwater recharge.
Samoei praised the forecasters directly. “We confirm that the Meteorological Department has been giving accurate forecasts recently, so we took its warning seriously,” he said.
How Kenya Is Preparing
The NDOC says it has run response drills in Nairobi, Garissa and Naivasha. Its stated goal is that no lives are lost this season.
The centre has also mapped rescue points and safe shelters with county governments, Samoei said. Public education campaigns on El Niño safety are under way.
“The government has set aside enough resources to deal with these disasters,” he said. He added that the government also expects help from partners and the private sector if a crisis unfolds.
Nakuru Deputy Governor David Kones told the forum that his county has been teaching residents to reduce disaster risk at household level. The forum brought together state agencies, private firms and academics.
What It Means for US Readers
Nairobi hosts a large US embassy and the UN Office at Nairobi, home to UN environment and housing agencies. Flooding in the capital can disrupt roads, flights and supply chains used by aid groups and companies.
The rains overlap with the November and December safari and holiday season, when many US visitors travel to Kenya. Travellers should follow State Department alerts and check road conditions before overland trips.
Mandera borders Somalia, where US forces have long struck al-Shabaab militants, and a cut road would isolate it. Mombasa, also on the above-average list, is the main port for Kenya and its landlocked neighbours.
Funding is a further question for Washington, which folded most USAID programmes into the State Department in 2025. That shrank a source of disaster aid Kenya has drawn on in past emergencies.
What Is Not Known
The NDOC did not publish a written breakdown of the 1.5 million and 500,000 estimates by county. The figures come from the director’s remarks as reported by Taifa Leo.
The government has not said how much money it has set aside for the response. It is also unclear which other 14 counties complete the 18-county list.
What Comes Next
Forum participants will mark the International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction on Tuesday, 13 October. The weather service will issue monthly and weekly updates as the season unfolds.
The warning is a preparedness estimate, not a report of current flooding. It does not mean every listed county will flood.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many people in Kenya could be affected by the El Niño rains?
Kenya’s National Disaster Operations Centre expects about 1.5 million people to be affected. It estimates that up to 500,000 may be displaced.
Which parts of Kenya face the highest flood risk?
The government has prioritised Nairobi, Kisumu, Busia and Mandera among 18 at-risk counties. Rivers such as the Nyando and Nzoia are the main concern in the west.
When is the rainy season in Kenya?
The short rains season runs from October to December. The Kenya Meteorological Department expects above-average rainfall in most counties this year.
Is it safe to travel to Kenya during the rains?
Travel continues, but flooding can close roads and delay flights. Visitors should follow State Department alerts and local forecasts before road trips.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a warming of the Pacific Ocean that shifts weather patterns worldwide. In East Africa it often brings heavier rain from October to December.
Sources: Kenya Meteorological Department, OND 2026 Seasonal Forecast; Taifa Leo (all accessed 11 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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