Industrial production in Brazil declines by 0.4% in September, is 3.2% lower than in February 2020

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Brazilian industrial production shrank 0.4% in September, compared to August, according to the Monthly Industrial Survey – Physical Production (PIM-PF), released on Thursday (04) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). In August, the indicator had a drop of 0.7% in the seasonally adjusted series.

With the September result, the industry was 3.2% below the pre-pandemic level in February 2020. Moreover, it is also 19.4% below the record level of the survey, recorded in May 2011.

This is the fourth consecutive negative monthly result, accumulating a loss of 2.6% in the period.

Compared to September 2020, industrial production fell 3.9%. For this basis of comparison, the median expectation of the market was that the indicator would have a variation of -4.1%, according to the Valor Data survey. The estimates were for a fall between 5.6% 1.2%.

The industrial production in 12 months was up 6.4%. In the cumulative result in 2021, through September, the industry advances 7.5%.

In the third quarter, the drop was 1.7% compared to the second quarter. Compared to the immediately preceding period, it is the third consecutive quarter of the decline in the survey’s quarterly series.

The previous declines had been 0.7% in the first quarter of 2021 (compared to the fourth quarter of 2020) and 3% in the second quarter (compared to the first quarter). In the fourth quarter of 2020, the last positive quarter in this series, the increase had been 3.9%.

The industry’s 1.7% loss in the third quarter is the result of drops of 1.2% in July, 0.7% in August, and 0.4% in September, always considering the result against the immediately preceding month.

Of the four major categories of the industrial sector surveyed by IBGE, three had a drop in activity in September, compared to August. In comparison with September 2020, the behavior was similar: three had a decline, according to data from the PIM-PF.

There was a drop of 0.4% in the general industry compared to August in the seasonally adjusted series. Between August and September, there was a drop in ten of the 26 surveyed industrial branches.

The production of intermediate goods showed a loss of 0.1% between August and September. Compared to September 2020, the activity of intermediate goods falls 3.6%. The category represents 55% of the industry.

The production of durable goods, in turn, fell 0.2% in September, compared to the previous month, and 22.3% compared to September 2020. On the other hand, manufacturers of capital goods registered a drop of 1.6% between August and September. Compared to September 2020, production rose 15%.

According to IBGE data, the result of semi-durable and non-durable goods was the only one in positive territory, with a 0.2% rise in production in September, compared to August. In comparison with September 2020, there was a 5% drop.

In the passage between August and September, the most significant negative pressures for the industry came from food products (-1.3%) – an activity that fell back after advancing 1.9% in the previous month – and metallurgy (-2.5%), which eliminated the high of 0.4% recorded in August.

There were also negative contributions from leather, travel goods, and footwear (-5.5%), other transport equipment (-7.6%), beverages (-1.7%), mining (-0.3%), furniture (-3.7%), and computer, electronic, and optical products (-1.7%).

On the other hand, there was a positive influence from the sectors mainly of thermochemical and pharmaceutical products (6.5%), other chemical products (2.3%), coke, oil products and biofuels (1.0%), and machinery and equipment (1.9%). There were further increases in pulp, paper, and paper products (1.2%), machinery, appliances, and electrical materials (1.7%), and tobacco products (6.6%).