Flávio Bolsonaro Vows to Join US Security Pact
Politics: Brazil
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 83.8% · Lula 15.5% (US$175 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 84% · Lula 17%
As of 7 October, 8:20 pm ET (01:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Key Facts
—Who. Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator of the Liberal Party (PL) and the conservative candidate facing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s runoff.
—What. He says Brazil would join the Shield of the Americas, a US-led security initiative against organised crime, if he wins.
—When. The remarks were published on Wednesday 7 October 2026. He made a similar pledge in a live stream on 23 September.
—Runoff. Sunday 25 October 2026. In the first round Flávio took about 47% of valid votes and Lula about 45%.
—Brazil’s status. Brazil is not among the 14 countries that signed the September joint statement, and it has not joined the Shield.
—Prediction markets. Kalshi 83.0% for Flávio, Polymarket 83.8%, as of 7 October 2026, 7:39 p.m. ET. Bets, not polls.
—As of. 7 October 2026, 23:45 GMT
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro says a government under him would join the Shield of the Americas, a US-led security initiative against organised crime. He led President Lula in the first round, and the pledge came out on Wednesday 7 October 2026, 18 days before the runoff on Sunday 25 October.
What We Know
In a conversation with Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella, Flávio said he would include Brazil in the Shield of the Americas, according to Jornal do Comércio and Bahia Notícias. His brother Eduardo Bolsonaro published the video on his own YouTube channel on Wednesday.
In it Flávio says that, God willing, “we will have a majority in Congress.” The video shows no recording date, outlets disagree on whether it came before or after the 4 October first round, and we could not view it ourselves.
On 23 September, in a live stream on his YouTube channel, he said Brazil would be part of the Shield “from next year.” He blamed Brazil’s absence on a political choice by Lula.
What the Shield of the Americas Is
The Shield of the Americas is a US-led security initiative with Latin American and Caribbean governments against organised crime. On 22 September, 14 countries signed a joint statement with the US State Department, saying they were willing to name 24 criminal groups as terrorist organisations, Brazilian media report.
Brazil’s gangs PCC and Comando Vermelho are among the targets. The United States designated both as terrorist organisations on 28 May 2026, according to Conjur.
Brazilian media name Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Chile, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guyana, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, Peru and Trinidad and Tobago as members. Brazil, Uruguay, Suriname and Venezuela are the South American countries outside the group.
Where the Race Stands
In the first round on 4 October, Flávio took about 47% of valid votes and Lula about 45%, according to the Brazilian Senate’s news service. The runoff is on Sunday 25 October 2026, and the electoral court TSE is the official source for results.
Our earlier report covered Trump’s reaction to Flávio’s first-round vote. We also reported on Peru’s hearing on the Shield, set for 19 October.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, “Brazil Presidential Election”: Flávio Bolsonaro 83.8%, Lula 15.5%. About US$175.3 million traded.
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC), “Brazil Presidential election winner?”: Flávio Bolsonaro 83.0%, Lula 17.0%. About 4.76 million contracts traded.
These prices are bets, not polls. Prices as of 7 October 2026, 7:39 p.m. ET.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
We have not seen a Brazilian proposal on how joining would work or what Congress would be asked to approve. The Shield’s terms for new members are also not public in the material we reviewed.
We have not seen an official response from Lula’s government to the pledge. Brazil’s official position remains that it is not a member.
What It Means for US Readers and Investors
For Washington, a Brazil inside the Shield would add Latin America’s largest economy to a coalition that Brazilian media count at 14 countries. It would also show that the runoff could reshape security cooperation between the two countries.
For US investors and companies, the pledge is one more sign of how the vote could shape US-Brazil ties, from security to trade. Markets give Flávio roughly an 83% to 84% chance of winning, but those prices are bets, not votes.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Shield of the Americas?
It is a US-led security initiative with Latin American and Caribbean governments against organised crime. On 22 September, 14 countries signed a joint statement with the US State Department about naming criminal groups as terrorist organisations.
What did Flávio Bolsonaro say about it?
He said a government under him would include Brazil in the Shield of the Americas. He made a similar pledge on 23 September, saying Brazil would join from next year.
When is Brazil’s presidential runoff?
The runoff is on Sunday 25 October 2026 between Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula. In the first round on 4 October Flávio took about 47% of valid votes and Lula about 45%.
What do prediction markets say about the runoff?
On 7 October 2026, 7:39 p.m. ET, Kalshi priced Flávio Bolsonaro at 83.0% and Polymarket at 83.8%. These prices are bets by traders, not polls or official results.
Sources
Jornal do Comércio · Metrópoles · Bahia Notícias · Conjur · Senado Notícias · Polymarket · Kalshi
Connected Coverage
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief