Covid-19 Expected to Peak in Brazil in July, Says Study

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – A study by scientists at Funcional Health Tech, an independent health-related network that collects health-related data from across the country, showed that the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil will be on July 6th.

According to these projections, by then the country will have over 1.7 million people infected. If confirmed cases in the United States, the current epicenter of the disease, stop growing, the projection could easily bring Brazil closer to the unfavorable position as the country with the most infections in the world.

There are currently 1,831,821 people infected in the United States. Brazil ranks second with 555,383 confirmed cases, according to real time monitoring by Johns Hopkins University.

According to the study, São Paulo, one of the states most affected by the disease in the country, will peak on July 10th, with 601,000 people infected. According to the latest data released by the Health Ministry, the state records 111,296 confirmed cases and 7,667 deaths so far.

The second most affected state will be Bahia, with 203,579 infections and the peak on July 16th, according to the study. Amazonas comes third, and will reach the 127,581 active cases mark on July 3rd.

In Rio de Janeiro, the study shows that the peak will be on September 8th, with 8,524 active cases. In Minas Gerais, the peak should also be in September, when the state will reach the mark of 90,757 patients.

The unprecedented study also points to a probability that the novel coronavirus will extend until 2021 in some Brazilian states, such as Mato Grosso do Sul, which will peak at the end of March next year, while Mato Grosso will peak on March 19th, as well as Rio Grande do Sul, which is expected to reach the highest number of cases on January 18th, 2021.

For its study, the platform used the SEIR mathematical model of epidemiology and the northern states, together with Sergipe, will be the most affected in the near future, given the population’s infection rate.

The study has not undergone standard procedures for quality certification in scientific research, such as peer review or publishing an article in a scientific journal. Nevertheless, it is available in its entirety on the Github platform, better known as a cooperative code repository for technology professionals.

Source: Exame