Coronavirus Outbreak Will Slash World Vehicle Sales in 2020 by 2.5 Percent

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – World car sales in 2020 are expected to drop by 2.5 percent due to the outbreak of the new coronavirus. The figure was revised by Moody’s rating agency, which projected a drop of 0.9 percent for the year.

By Tuesday, February 25th, at least 2,708 people had died, most of them in China – there were also deaths in Italy (11), Iran (11), South Korea (ten), Diamond Princess Cruise (three), Hong Kong (two), Philippines (one), Japan (one), Taiwan (one) and France (one) – and more than 77,000 confirmed infection in several countries. With one occurrence so far, Brazil becomes the first country in Latin America with a confirmed case of the new virus.

According to Moody’s, the outbreak of the disease affects the demand for cars and interrupts the automotive supply chain. The expected rebound in sales is not expected to occur before 2021, with growth estimated at 1.5 percent.

“Global vehicle sales will drop by 2.5 percent in 2020, slowing from a 4.6 percent drop in 2019, but worsening from the 0.9 percent decline we had previously projected for this year. Sales will rebound only modestly in 2021, with 1.5 percent growth,” said Falk Frey, Moody’s senior vice president.

The risk agency estimates that car sales in China will drop 2.9 percent this year, a poorer performance than the one percent growth projected for the country. Sales in the US will remain low, while car sales in Europe will decline in 2020 after stronger than expected demand in late 2019.

According to Moody’s, Japan will be the only major automotive market to see growth in unit sales, with light vehicle sales growing by 0.4 percent in 2020. This follows a sharper than expected decline of 1.4 percent in 2019, due to the country’s consumer tax increase and production disruptions caused by three major typhoons.