Copper’s Holiday Calm Hides A Tight-Market Squeeze And A Policy Test

Key Points

1. Copper is pausing near highs after a late-December surge and a sharp year-end whipsaw.
2. Holiday-thin liquidity is amplifying swings, while supply tightness and electrification demand still set the bias.
3. Inventory location and arbitrage are shifting pricing power away from politics.

On TradingView, the copper CFD was $5.75825 per pound at 07:45 UTC. LME three-month copper was $12,537.5 per tonne. It traded between $12,584 and $12,480, on volume 2,276.

In the US, COMEX copper was near 5.7380. It was up about 0.99%, with volume 2,836, from a CME update dated Jan. 1. Another snapshot put copper near $5.69 per pound, down 0.22%.

Overnight, it was a liquidity story. LME was closed for New Year’s Day. Thin trade left copper sensitive to the softer dollar.

The last week was volatile. Copper rose 2.64% on Dec. 26 on 58.43K volume. It fell 4.68% on Dec. 29 on 99.85K volume. It then rebounded 4.35% on Dec. 30. It slipped 1.70% on Dec. 31. It then gained 0.81% on Jan. 1 on muted turnover.

Copper pauses as supply tightens

Fundamentals still explain the higher level. 2026 deficit talk is tied to mine disruptions and tight concentrate supply. Demand remains linked to grid upgrades and data-center build-outs.

Inventories are a logistical and jurisdiction story, with a large share of exchange stocks in the United States. In that setting, price signals matter more than ministerial promises. The LME-COMEX dislocation helped pull metal into the US.

Positioning stayed supportive. COMEX open interest was 256,887 in the latest weekly reading, up 2.42%. COPX saw $181.0m week-over-week inflow. CPER traded around 34.96. Reliable net flow data were not available.

Technicals point to a pause, not a break. On the 4-hour chart, price is ranging around 5.75–5.78. Momentum is fading and RSI sits in the mid-50s.

On the daily chart, trend remains up. RSI is in the low-60s and momentum is positive. Resistance sits near 5.82–5.83, then 5.90. Support clusters at 5.72–5.73, then 5.69–5.66.

Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart said the breakout has been backed by a softer dollar and expectations for lower rates. He warned the move looks stretched. That raises the odds of consolidation before the next leg.

Related coverage: Brazil’s Morning Call | Trump Threatens Military Action If Iran Cracks Down On Prote This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Latin American news and financial markets.