Copper Nears Record Highs As Inventories Slide And Tightness Dominates Year-End Trading

Copper’s rally paused near record territory into the weekend, with the market carrying Friday’s close rather than fresh Saturday price discovery.

The headline was simple: visible inventories kept falling, supply nerves stayed loud, and prices held firm enough to make even bulls cautious.

Key Points

• Copper ended the week near record levels as LME stocks slid again, reinforcing the tight-supply narrative.
• U.S. futures stayed elevated into late December, with solid but not frantic activity.
• Momentum cooled on shorter-term charts, suggesting consolidation risk even as the longer trend remains constructive.

With LME and COMEX shut on Saturday, the best “morning” read for December 20 is Friday’s settlement. LME three-month copper finished around $11,837 per tonne, and Westmetall’s end-of-day table put it at $11,839.

LME stocks were reported at 160,400 tonnes, down from 165,875 earlier in the week, keeping the market’s focus squarely on deliverability and nearby tightness.

In the U.S., COMEX high-grade copper told a similar story. The December 2025 contract settled near $5.4650 per pound on December 19 as expiry approached, while a commonly referenced forward month (February 2026) was around $5.4930.

Volume prints looked healthy rather than euphoric, with one widely followed dataset showing roughly 51,000 contracts traded on the day.

Supply-Led Copper Rally Loses Momentum

The global picture stayed supply-led. A prominent European industry note highlighted shifting physical premiums and a re-pricing of deliverable risk, a reminder that the “paper” price is ultimately anchored in the logistics of metal moving to where it is needed.

In China, publicly shared pricing snippets pointed to SHFE copper trading in the low-90,000s yuan per tonne around the same window, consistent with a firm Asian backdrop.

Even supporters acknowledge the air is thinning. Commerzbank’s metals team warned that prices at these levels leave less room for error, a view echoed by traders watching inventories and spreads as the cleanest real-time signals.

Technically, the longer trend still looks constructive, but short-term momentum has cooled. The latest available TradingView charts provided (timestamped December 30) show daily indicators still positive, while the 4-hour view reflects a pullback/consolidation phase.

The message for December 20 is straightforward: tightness is winning, but the market is now priced for it.

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