Brazil Runoff Poll Shows Race Tightening
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Thursday 15 October, the Datafolha polling institute published a new runoff survey showing a technical tie between the two candidates.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 51% of valid votes and Lula 49%, while raw totals read 47% to 45%, with a 2-point margin of error.
- The change A week earlier the same institute had Flávio at 52% and Lula at 48% in valid votes, so the gap has narrowed.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 79% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (16 October, 1:59 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 79% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 21% and 22%), as of 16 October, 3:00 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open Interviews ended on Wednesday 14 October, before the Senate finished analysing a proposal to end the 6×1 work schedule.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
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A new Brazil runoff poll shows the race tightening, with Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Lula by only 51% to 49% of valid votes. The Datafolha polling institute published it on Thursday 15 October, and the gap counts as a technical tie.
The vote on Sunday 25 October decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy, which matters for Brazilian stocks, the real and trade with Washington. Datafolha is a major Brazilian pollster linked to the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, which commissioned this survey.
What the New Brazil Runoff Poll Found
Datafolha interviewed 2,520 voters aged 16 or older in person on 13 and 14 October, GZH reported. Folha de S.Paulo commissioned the survey, which has a 2-point margin of error and TSE registration BR-00466/2026.
In raw totals, Flávio Bolsonaro has 47% and Lula has 45%, with 6% voting blank, null or for neither and 2% undecided, according to GZH. Once those blank, null and undecided answers are set aside, the split becomes 51% to 49% in Flávio’s favour.
The 8 October survey had Flávio ahead 49% to 45% in raw totals and 52% to 48% in valid votes, Diário do Grande ABC reported. The raw lead in this Brazil runoff poll has shrunk from 4 points to 2 within a week.
How Valid Votes and Technical Ties Work
Brazilian election results are reported as valid votes, which leave out blank and spoiled ballots. Pollsters publish that figure to match what the electoral authority will announce, while the raw total counts every voter interviewed.
A technical tie means the gap is no larger than chance alone could produce in a sample of this size. With a 2-point margin of error on each number, this Brazil runoff poll cannot separate the two candidates.
A Week of Movement in the Race
In the first round on 4 October, Flávio finished first and Lula second, O Povo reported. Our report on the first Datafolha runoff poll shows the 8 October survey gave Flávio a 52% to 48% lead in valid votes.
The new Brazil runoff poll moves each candidate by one point in valid votes. In raw totals, Flávio fell from 49% to 47% while Lula stayed at 45%.
Blank, Null and Undecided Voters
Blank and null answers rose from 5% to 6%, and undecided voters from 1% to 2%, O Povo reported. Together they make up 8% of the sample, more than the 2-point gap between the candidates.
In Brazil, blank and null ballots are left out of the final result, so they help neither candidate. Only the voters who choose a name decide the winner.
Why the Senate Work-Week Vote Matters
The Brazilian Senate approved the end of the 6×1 work schedule, under which many employees work six days and rest one, O Globo reported. Workers’ reaction to the change is one open question in the race.
O Globo said the interviews ended on Wednesday, before the Senate finished analysing the proposal. It quoted Folha de S.Paulo as saying any effect would be measured in the next Brazil runoff poll from Datafolha, due next week.
What It Means for You
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can mean price swings until the result is known. The Brazil runoff poll tracker lists every survey so you can compare the pollsters.
If you follow US politics or trade, the winner will set Brazil’s course with Washington for the next four years. A 2-point gap sits inside the margin of error, so neither candidate is a certain winner.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 79.2% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (16 October, 1:59 a.m. ET). Lula stands at 20.5%, and Flávio’s price fell 3.7 points over the previous 24 hours while Lula’s rose 4.0 points.
The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$184.2 million in total bets. These are bets, not polls, and they can move fast on new surveys.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 79.2% · Lula 20.5% (US$184 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 22%
As of 16 October, 3:00 am ET (08:00 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
Datafolha has not yet published how the Senate vote changes voters’ choices, and Folha de S.Paulo says the next survey will measure it. The size of any shift is open until that round comes out.
It is not known how many undecided and swing voters will turn out on 25 October, or which way they will go. Any Brazil runoff poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the new Brazil runoff poll from Datafolha say?
It shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 51% and Lula at 49% of valid votes, with raw totals of 47% to 45%. The survey was published on Thursday 15 October.
What is a technical tie in a poll?
It means the gap between candidates is within the margin of error, here 2 percentage points. The survey cannot say who is truly ahead.
How did the Brazil runoff poll change from last week?
On 8 October, Datafolha had Flávio ahead 52% to 48% in valid votes and 49% to 45% in raw totals. The lead is now 2 points in raw totals instead of 4.
When is the Brazil runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, 10 days after this poll was published. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
Who is Datafolha?
Datafolha is a major Brazilian polling institute linked to the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo. The newspaper commissioned this survey.
Sources: GZH (Grupo RBS), 15 October 2026; O Globo, 15 October 2026; O Povo, 15 October 2026; Diário do Grande ABC, 8 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief