Coffee in Colombia and Brazil at risk from new weather conditions

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Coffee, cashew nuts, and avocados are important crops for many farmers in tropical areas around the world and are highly valued products for consumers. Alterations in temperature and humidity conditions in these areas could force plantations to be moved to regions or altitudes that maintain the optimum conditions for this agriculture.

A scientific study published in the journal PLOS One (January 26, 2022) shows models and forecasts on the effects of weather variations in the main growing areas of these three high production vegetables.

Summarizing the results of this research is not easy because the impact will vary significantly for each of the products studied (coffee -in the Coffea arabica variety-, cashews and avocados) and the production areas. The authors suggest that if production is to be maintained or increased, the cultivation areas will have to be significantly displaced.

Those responsible for this work point out that current weather conditions will reduce, for example, the optimal areas for coffee cultivation in Colombia, Brazil, Vietnam, and Indonesia.

COFFEE WILL NOT DISAPPEAR FOR THE TIME BEING

In the last few years, some journalistic adaptations have reported that the so-called “climate change” will end coffee crops worldwide. This study does not speak of the extinction of coffee.

The current study reiterates that climate variations are modifying the conditions in some areas where this product is grown (as occurs with many others, including vineyards in Spain).

With new temperatures and humidity levels established, some areas are no longer optimal for the cultivation of coffee, while other regions or altitudes are becoming more suitable for these same bush crops.

The study led by Roman Grüter, a researcher at the Zurich University of Applied Sciences in Switzerland, combines weather variations projections and soil factors to computationally model and predict how suitable the world’s different regions will be for these cultures by 2050. Specifically, 14 global models have been tested under three future scenarios, incorporating cropland quality data such as pH, texture, and slope.

The analysis predicts that some regions will be more suitable and others less suitable for each crop. Coffee is the most susceptible of the three, with predicted decreases in suitability in all major growing regions, including Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Colombia.

For cashew nuts, highly suitable regions are forecast to decline in some major producing countries, including India, Côte d’Ivoire, and Benin. Appropriate areas for avocados will also decline for some major producers, such as the Dominican Republic, Peru, and Indonesia.

Meanwhile, areas suitable for all three crops may expand at higher altitudes and latitudes, especially for cashews and avocados. The areas with the best suitability for the future are in regions like the United States, Argentina, China, and East Africa.

“These findings suggest the need for adaptations to climate variations in major producing countries, such as breeding varieties adapted to higher temperatures or drought. Strategies will also be needed to mitigate the environmental impact of any expansion to new locations,” said the researchers.