Brazil’s coffee harvest estimate up 16.8% for 2022

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The first estimate for Brazil’s coffee harvest in 2022 shows that the yield should increase by 16.8% from last year to 55.7 million 60kg sacks. The figures were released yesterday, January 18, by CONAB (National Supply Company). However, the forecast is below 2020’s yield of 63 million 60kg sacks.

The 2021 decline is attributed to climate changes, with drought and frost impacting plantations in Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Paraná, mainly in July and August.

Adverse weather conditions should more severely impact the Arabica variety, which should not reach its full productive potential in 2022. Nevertheless, CONAB indicated that the output for this coffee variety is likely to rise by 23.4% from the previous harvest, estimated at 38.7 million sacks.

The cultivated area for Arabica in Brazil this harvest is expected to cover 1.8 million hectares and accounts for nearly 80% of the total region dedicated to domestic coffee growing. Minas Gerais has the largest area with the species, 1.3 million hectares — 70% of country’s occupied area.

A new record is expected for Robusta, with crops adding up to approximately 17 million sacks, up 4.1% from the previous harvest. The result combines the 3% increase in the planted area and a slight improvement of 0.4% in production, from 43.4 to 43.6 sacks per cultivated hectare.

Espírito Santo stands out with the country’s largest area dedicated to the variety. The Southeastern state accounts for over 60% of Brazil’s total amount, followed by the states of Rondônia and Bahia.

CONAB reported an increase of 2.23 million hectares in the area dedicated to coffee growing, considering the two varieties, representing an expansion of 1.7% from the previous cycle. The rise is also the result of adverse climate conditions registered last year, as low temperatures require more intense pruning.

The official report underscores that the yearly crops, especially Arabica, should be influenced by the so-called positive biennial effect— where a year with a high flowering rate is followed by a contrasting low — in a number of producing areas across the country.

Despite the growth in the harvest, CONAB said the scenario this time of year is marked by restrictions in the offer of coffee domestically, influenced by the lower 2021 output, a warm-up in the demand for exports, and the span between harvests.

In 2021, Brazil exported some 42.4 million sacks of 60kg of green coffee, down 3.3% from the year before, but up 15.3% in revenues, totaling US$6.4 billion.

“The trend is for coffee prices to remain pressured, since we’re expecting a reduction in global stocks in the 2021/22 cycle. These high prices boost exports,” CONAB stated.