CHILE · COPPER
Key Facts
- —The country Chile is the world’s largest copper-mining country, and its state-owned producer Codelco sells refined copper under annual premium contracts to customers in Europe, Asia and the United States.
- —Why it matters The premium is paid on top of the London Metal Exchange price, so a record figure signals how tight physical copper is expected to be in Europe next year.
- —Why now Codelco is said to have set its 2027 European premium this week, as the London Metal Exchange industry week opened and six days after the German smelter Aurubis set its own record.
- —What happened Codelco is said to have offered European customers a 2027 premium of US$350 a tonne, a record and US$25, or about 7.7%, above the US$325 for 2026.
- —The numbers US$350 is US$3 above the US$347 set by Aurubis and equals about 2.4% of the 19 October London Metal Exchange three-month price of US$14,342 a tonne.
- —What it means for you US copper investors and manufacturers get a read on physical tightness outside the United States, where tariff expectations have pulled metal into American warehouses.
- —Still open Whether Codelco confirms the figure, whether its US and Asian premiums follow, and whether US tariffs on refined copper arrive.
- —Power Index Chile ranks 3rd of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 63.6 points (October 2026 edition).
The Codelco copper premium for European customers was set at a record US$350 a tonne for 2027, Reuters reported on Tuesday 20 October 2026, citing two people with knowledge of the matter. For US readers it is a read-through on copper, because Europe is bidding up physical metal while tariff expectations have pulled copper into American warehouses, and Chile supplied 68% of US refined copper imports in 2021-24, according to the US Geological Survey.
A second report from Bloomberg said one person familiar with the matter described the premium as fixed in talks this week with some European customers, and that Codelco did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Codelco is Chile’s state-owned copper company, and its website carried no statement on the premium when we checked on Tuesday.
Our Codelco explainer covers the company, its debt and the El Teniente crisis in detail. Earlier coverage includes Codelco Copper Output Audit Finds 2025 Overstatement.
How the Codelco Copper Premium Was Set
A premium is the extra amount a buyer pays per tonne of refined copper on top of the London Metal Exchange price, to cover physical delivery of the metal. The first report says Codelco’s premiums for physical refined copper are often used as a reference in supply contracts around the world.
That report says Codelco offered European customers US$350 a tonne for next year, more than 7% above the US$325 for this year. Our arithmetic gives US$25 a tonne, or about 7.7%.
At the 19 October London Metal Exchange three-month price of US$14,342 a tonne, US$350 equals about 2.4% on top of the metal price. That is also about 15.9 US cents a pound, our own conversion.
The first report says the figure came as the industry gathered in London for the London Metal Exchange week, and that Codelco sets separate premiums for the United States and for Asia, including China. Neither report gives those figures, so it is not known whether they will also rise.
Aurubis Set a Record First
Aurubis, Europe’s largest copper smelter, raised its 2027 premium to a record US$347 a tonne six days earlier, the reports say. A wire report of Wednesday 14 October, citing sources, put that about 10% above the US$315 it charged for 2026, and Aurubis declined to comment on the figure.
Codelco’s US$350 is US$3 a tonne above the German smelter’s US$347, a gap of under 1%. Aurubis raised its premium by US$32 a tonne, more than the US$25 for Codelco, and the reports do not say whether the two contracts are directly comparable.
An Aurubis spokesperson said the company expects “a very strong demand side” in 2027 from mega-trends, which the 14 October report listed as AI data centres, electric vehicles and renewable energy. The later report quotes a spokesperson as saying that moving inventories to the United States has reduced the copper available in the market.
Albert Mackenzie of the consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence called the Aurubis increase “in line with expectations” on 14 October, given low treatment charges and tariff speculation. He added that it would be interesting to see whether Codelco’s premiums, especially in Asia, follow.
Tariff Doubts and the US Copper Stockpile
The first report says traders have shipped copper to the United States since President Donald Trump ordered a study of possible import tariffs in February 2025, leaving less metal for buyers elsewhere. The second report says the European increase was widely expected, but doubts have grown in recent weeks over whether Trump will go ahead with tariffs.
It adds that New York copper prices have fallen to near parity with London futures, which removes the incentive to ship more metal to the United States. That could free supply for buyers in other markets.
On Monday 19 October, three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.4% to US$14,342 a tonne, the Chilean outlet Reporte Minero reported. Certified exchange stocks reached a two-month high of 147,450 tonnes, helped by inflows of 8,225 tonnes into US warehouses.
The record price was US$14,875 a tonne on 10 September, which Reporte Minero links to traders diverting shipments to the United States ahead of possible tariffs on refined copper. Daniel Ghali of Deutsche Bank said the tariff threat reflects a broader national security concern over concentrated critical mineral supply chains, and that shipping costs and market friction would discourage large exports from the United States even without tariff worries.
Reporte Minero also said a strike at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine in Chile, which began on 7 October, ended after an agreement with unions. That removed one source of supply worry that had kept copper markets nervous for weeks.
What It Means for You
For US investors, the premium is a read on physical tightness outside the United States, which matters to holders of copper miners, copper funds and Chilean assets. A higher premium does not move the London price by itself, and the reports do not say how much of it reaches end users.
The United States imported an estimated 1.7 million tonnes of refined copper in 2025, up from 903,000 tonnes in 2024, and its net import reliance was estimated at 57% against 45% a year earlier, the US Geological Survey says. Chile is the largest mining country in the survey, with an estimated 5.3 million tonnes of mine output in 2025 out of a world total of about 23 million.
Our guide Copper in Latin America 2026: Mines, Prices and Politics and our profile Who Runs Chile’s Economy, the Key Players in 2026 explain the industry and the people behind it. Visitors and residents can find day-to-day costs in our Santiago expat city guide.
What Is Not Known
Codelco has not confirmed the US$350 figure, which rests on two unnamed sources in one report and one in the other. The reports also differ in wording, since one says Codelco offered the premium and the other says it was fixed in talks, and neither says customers have signed.
It is not known which customers or volumes the European offer covers, or when Codelco will set its premiums for the United States and Asia. It is also not known how far the premium will reach prices paid by European manufacturers.
Whether the United States will impose tariffs on refined copper is not known, and the second report says doubts have grown. A change in that expectation would alter how much metal flows to American warehouses and how tight Europe stays.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Codelco copper premium?
It is the extra amount per tonne that Codelco charges on top of the London Metal Exchange price for physical refined copper. A record US$350 a tonne for European customers in 2027 is reported by two outlets, not yet confirmed by Codelco.
How much is the new premium for Europe?
Two reports put it at US$350 a tonne for 2027, up more than 7% from US$325 for 2026. Our arithmetic gives a rise of US$25, or about 7.7%.
How does it compare with Aurubis?
Aurubis set a record US$347 a tonne for 2027 six days earlier, so Codelco’s figure is US$3 higher. Aurubis raised its premium by about 10% from US$315, according to a wire report of 14 October.
Why does it matter to US readers?
It shows physical copper is expected to stay tight outside the United States while tariff expectations have drawn metal into US warehouses. Chile supplied 68% of US refined copper imports in 2021-24, the US Geological Survey says.
Has Codelco confirmed the figure?
Not in the reports reviewed, and its website carried no statement on Tuesday 20 October. One report says Codelco did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Sources: Gestión, Lima, 20 October 2026; MarketScreener España, 20 October 2026; Reporte Minero, Santiago, 19 October 2026; Kitco, wire report of 14 October 2026; US Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Copper; Codelco, company website.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
In depth
Copper in Latin America
- Copper in Latin America 2026: Mines, Prices and Politics
- What Is Codelco? Chile’s State Copper Giant, Its Debt and the El Teniente Crisis
- Peru Copper Mining Explained: Output, Big Mines, Exports and Risks in 2026
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