Close race for the presidency in Brazil; polls should not be given much credit

The lead of Brazilian presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT, left) over President Jair Messias Bolsonaro (PL, right) in the runoff election has shrunk to less than five percentage points.

This is according to a new opinion poll (to be taken with great caution) published Thursday (13) by AtlasIntel.

In the first poll since the first round of voting on Oct. 2, AtlasIntel found that 51.1 percent of voters favor Lula and 46.5 percent lean toward Bolsonaro.

Excluding undecided and invalid votes, Lula reportedly comes in at 52.4 percent and Bolsonaro at 47.6 percent.

In the polarized first round, with nine candidates, former President Lula received 48 percent of the vote compared to 43 percent for Bolsonaro, setting the stage for a surprisingly complex runoff election on Oct. 30.

“The picture that emerges from this poll shows a tougher fight for da Silva than it first appeared, with a certain lead that will be difficult to overcome,” said Andrei Roman, managing director of AtlasIntel.

AtlasIntel was one of several polling firms accused of “underestimating” (or intentionally downplaying) true support for Bolsonaro in the first round.

However, it was closer than several more traditional polling firms, such as Datafolha, Ipec, and Ipespe, against which the government plans to launch an investigation to clarify suspected concerted manipulation.

The Brazilian Electoral Court obstructs this investigation into alleged manipulation by polling institutes ex officio, i.e., without being requested by the Justice.

The Brazilian president needs six million additional votes to be re-elected, while da Silva needs 1.2 million votes to be elected to a third term.

AtlasIntel surveyed 4,500 voters across the country between Oct. 8 and Oct. 12, randomly selected via the Internet.

The poll has a margin of error of +-1 percentage points.

Meanwhile, the two candidates continue to campaign. On Thursday, Bolsonaro acknowledged that he had “exaggerated” some statements related to the Covid-19 pandemic and apologized.

“I did my best to help in the fight against Covid, and I exaggerated a bit in some words. I apologize, but that’s part of the emotion,” he said at a meeting with religious leaders in the northeastern city of Recife.

Bolsonaro’s controversial remarks during the pandemic have been one of the primary weapons used by his rival in the polls, Lula da Silva, to tarnish the president’s image.

At a brief press conference in Aracaju, the capital of Sergipe state, the PT leader stressed that if he returns to power, the “fight against hunger,” which today affects some 33 million Brazilians, will be his “top priority.”

To that end, he assured that he would promote a “set of measures” to “immediately create jobs.”

Today, the unemployment rate in Brazil is at a remarkable low of 8.9%.