Chavismo Is Retreating in Venezuela. It’s Not Surrendering
In less than two months, the world has moved on from Nicolás Maduro. He sits in Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center, pleading not guilty to narcoterrorism charges. But the revolution he built is still standing.
Acting president Delcy Rodríguez has maintained regime cohesion while cooperating with the power that bombed her capital. The military backs her. Even the most combative chavistas — Diosdado Cabello, Iris Varela — have softened their tone.
The art of retreating without leaving
Trump has repeatedly recognized Rodríguez as Venezuela‘s legitimate authority. U.S. envoys consider the nine-month election timeline proposed by opposition leader María Corina Machado “reasonable.” Washington controls the country’s oil sales.
In return, Rodríguez proposed an amnesty bill covering political crimes since 1999, pledged to close the notorious El Helicoide prison, and opened oil to foreign investment. Over 440 political prisoners have been freed since January 8, according to Foro Penal, though more than 600 remain behind bars.
The National Assembly approved the bill in a first reading on February 5 but stalled in the second debate when lawmakers clashed over whether exiles could qualify. The vote resumes Wednesday.
Selective opening, selective repression
The opening has real limits. Opposition leader Juan Pablo Guanipa was freed on February 8 after eight months in prison — only to be seized hours later by armed men. He had called the administration illegitimate. Cabello said he was re-arrested for “calling people to the streets.” He remains under house arrest.
Anti-American rhetoric has gone quiet. Business-friendly language is in. But the repressive apparatus has not been dismantled — dissent is tolerated only to the point the regime defines.
Machado, the 2025 Nobel Peace laureate, has been sidelined. Trump backed Rodríguez instead, calling Machado “a very nice woman” who lacks support to govern. Machado told Politico elections could happen in nine to ten months. Trump’s position: Venezuela needs to be “fixed” first.
Retreat, not surrender
Chavismo has done this before. Hugo Chávez was a master of what Venezuelans called “el recule” — the tactical pullback. The current version follows the same playbook: accept external conditions, marginalize the opposition, buy time to reshape the narrative.
Whether this ends in genuine transition or indefinite holding depends on forces the regime cannot control. The opposition is weakened, scattered in exile, unable to mobilize the street pressure that forces real change. Caracas is cautiously optimistic. But optimism and transition are not the same thing. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Venezuela affairs and Latin American financial news.
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